4 big predictions for 2024

Let’s talk about my 2024 predictions. And I will just jump right into them.

Prediction number one for 2024: President Joe Biden will be impeached by the House of Representatives, but he will obviously be acquitted in the Senate in the impeachment trial, because there isn’t going to be evidence that he committed high crimes or misdemeanors or criminal activity of any kind.

You know, it seems pretty clear at this point, the writing’s on the wall. We’ve heard it from friends of the show like Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell, and others.

Republicans are beyond caring whether they have evidence to impeach Joe Biden or not, they will throw around whatever words they can think of, criminal bribery, self-enrichment, policy for dollars or whatever, they’d have, as of today, not a shred of evidence supporting any of it.

And yet, I believe that they’re in too deep. They already voted at the end of 2023 to start an impeachment inquiry of Joe Biden, even though many of those same people previously said we should not have one-party impeachment inquiries and impeachment, it’s bad for the country, and now they are doing it without a single vote of support from Democrats.

They seem committed. In poker, you might call it “pot committed.” And part of what they want is to create a situation where voters, when they go to the polls in November, will say, “Well, both of these candidates have been impeached.”

So the impeachment becomes irrelevant, even though the circumstances of the impeachment of Trump are so dramatically different from those of what would be Joe Biden.

So prediction number one, Biden gets impeached but acquitted, not convicted.

Prediction number two for 2024: I believe Donald Trump is going to have a meltdown outside one of his various criminal trials that will put every other meltdown to shame. If you thought his behavior was unhinged after and outside the courthouse of his New York civil fraud trial, and it was crazy and unhinged, his behavior, when what is at stake is his freedom, because remember, at the end of the day, in the civil fraud trial, he might lose money, he might lose his ability to do business in New York, but he’s not ending up in prison, the stakes with the criminal trials are a de facto life sentence. Not an actual a life sentence. But based on Trump’s age and how unhealthy he is, even a conviction on a few of these charges, with an average sentence, would effectively be life in prison for Donald Trump. So I believe his behavior after the criminal trials is going to be like nothing we have seen before.

And then finally, for 2024, I believe Joe Biden is going to get himself reelected. Now, anytime such a prediction is made, I’ve been wrong before, and I don’t believe it’s 100%. And one of the things that’s really important to understand about predictions is if I say I have 80% confidence that Biden is getting re-elected, if it doesn’t happen, am I wrong? In the sense that I’m not saying it’s 100%? We’re running one scenario, but here’s what I will tell you about the Biden re-election.

The economy, right now, as we go from 2023 to 2024, is doing quite well. We have record high stock market, wages are up, GDP is up, unemployment is down below 4% for as long as a sustained period as we have seen in decades. Inflation has come all the way down to 3.1%.  Historically, when this is the economy, we have incumbent presidents get reelected. Now you could say, well, but David, it’s different this time. It’s different because Biden is so unpopular.

Well, what matters is how popular is Biden in November of 2024? Obama once also had a high 30s approval, but then it was back up before the election. And he got himself reelected. Well, it’s different because Joe Biden is old. Trump’s also old, and Trump’s less healthy, he’s obese, he doesn’t exercise, eats a terrible diet. So I am not positive. I’m not saying it’s 100%. But if you show me all the different inputs, if the economy, and this is a big if, if the economy stays more or less like it is today, and Trump’s contributions to public discourse are going from criminal trial to criminal trial and flipping out, I believe it is extraordinarily likely that Joe Biden does get himself reelected.

Beyond that, I’m going to make another. Here’s like my bonus prediction: I believe MAGA will be seriously damaged in 2024. Now, it might not be till November when Trump loses. But we have been asking ourselves, what’s the future of MAGA? Does it lose to regular Republicans? Does it get integrated into the Republican Party? Does it take over the Republican Party? If indeed the previous prediction is right, which is Biden beats Trump in the general election, Trump nearly years old, nearly 80, then having last two presidential elections in a row, is going to be very demoralizing to the MAGA movement. And I believe it will start to evaporate, it’s going to be much more momentous than when the Tea Party evaporated. The Tea Party was kind of absorbed into the regular Republican Party. I think it could be a very bad year for MAGA.

So those are my three plus one predictions for 2024. I’m going to be here with you giving you my thoughts and following the election as we go. Let me know your thoughts. Am I way off on any of these predictions? I’d love to hear from you.