Future of GOP will be determined in 2024 election

I want to talk today about the potential future of Trumpism, if Trump wins versus if he loses, wins by a lot, loses by a lot. What is the likely future of the movement known as Maga or Trumpism? And I’m going to focus on what I believe are the three most likely scenarios. Number one, Donald Trump wins. Number two, Donald Trump loses by a little, and number three, Donald Trump loses in a landslide to Kamala Harris. First and foremost, we have the scenario if Trump wins. Understand that Trump hasn’t been very good for the Republican Party. Trump won in 2016 by about 100,000 votes in three states, and then 2018 2020 2022 and the off year 2023 elections have not been good for Republicans. When they’ve won, they’ve underperformed and met very often they’ve actually lost. So Trump winning in November would be notable, because it would be the first real Trump win in a way, in eight years. If that is the case, number one, Trump continues to control the Republican Party. Number two, Trump continues to play king maker in the Republican Party, and likely in 2026 in terms of the midterms, Trump’s endorsement and support will continue to be very important, and Trump will have a major say in determining who is the 2028 Republican nominee. And maybe nepotism will be a factor, and it’ll even end up being someone related to Trump. Who knows. But the point here is the Republican Party will continue being under the thumb of Trump if he wins in November, and Trump ism will be the dominant ism within the Republican Party. Scenario number two is Trump loses, but narrowly in November, by roughly the same margin that he lost to Joe Biden, or by an even smaller margin if Trump is able to pick up, say, Georgia and Arizona, which is totally plausible, Harris would win, but by a smaller margin than Trump lost by in a 2020, what happens in this scenario? Well, in the immediate Trump, of course, claims it was rigged and it was stolen and it was fraud, and he starts doing everything he can to try to take control and steal the election. Will it work? I do not believe it will ultimately work, but if it’s close, he might be able to convince just enough insider Republicans to stick with them and to support him, at least initially, until the court cases and whatever else is done and Kamala Harris is sworn in as president. But then, but then, I believe that insider Republicans elected officials will realize Trump has nothing else for them. He has no power. He has no say. He’ll be 82 at the time of the 2028 election, and he will have lost many times a directly and indirectly, and they will abandon him. I believe that they are going to do it very quickly. And scenario number three, which is Trump loses by a lot. For example, if we know before midnight on November 5 that Trump’s losing, or even if we know by the morning of November 6, if it’s that clear, because there’s no one state that will decide that can be pushed and pushed for weeks or months, I believe you will see Republicans start to abandon Trump within hours, within hours, because there is nothing left for Trump to do for them and Maga, Trumpism will be ostracized from the Republican Party, certainly by 2028 and maybe by 2026 this is in part, not because Republicans will change their minds about Trump. The Republican Party is filled with elected officials who already dislike Trump, who have always disliked Trump, who recognize that they’ve lost almost everything since Trump won in 2016 so it’s not that the Republicans would change their minds. It’s that the Republicans would realize I no longer have to pretend to support this guy. I no longer have to publicly defend the sky. This is why the November election is such an inflection point, because it is not just about how much damage might Trump do, Trump do in the next four years. It’s also about what happens in 2026 what happens in 2028 The one downside for the left of Trumpism being destroyed is that Trumpism has not been very effective politically. If Trumpism is extricated from the Republican Party and they put marginally more sane right wing ism into play for 2026 and 2028 they actually will be more likely to win, and it will bring the left back to having to defend against people we disagree with, but who are not as boldly authoritarian and fascistic as is Donald Trump. So there’s definitely up. Sides and downsides, no matter how you slice it, but what’s better for the world is Maga Trumpism going bye bye, and that’s what an overwhelming defeat of Trump in November would bring. I.