Georgia or Pennsylvania could decide the 2024 election

I want to talk today about Georgia. Why Georgia? Well, Georgia is a critical battleground state in the 2024 election, but maybe more importantly, Georgia is sort of emerging as the clearest example of a State won by Joe Biden in 2020 that Donald Trump is leading in 2024 now there’s this group of battleground states. You certainly have Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, you have Pennsylvania, and then there’s Michigan and Wisconsin. If we look at the state polling in all of those states, it is within one point in most of them, and those are all states won by Joe Biden in 2020 but Georgia really seems to be the one with a new poll from the Atlanta Journal Constitution that says Trump is leading by four and on average, Trump has now taken more than a couple point lead in Georgia. It is the most likely state of those right now that will flip from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024 and the question that we arrive at is, what does Georgia tell us, potentially about the rest of the race? If I had to point to a second state, one by Biden in 2020 but likely to be won by Trump in 2024 I would also be looking at Arizona. And the conclusion, or the revelation of critical importance that we come to is that if we start with the 2020 map, flip Georgia to Trump, flip Arizona to Trump, Kamala Harris still becomes president in this situation. However, it does leave her with very little breathing room to lose anything else, and it sets up Pennsylvania as maybe the decision maker, or the deciding state as far as who next becomes president. Now, let me step back a little bit. If you had said to me a month ago, what do I think is the most likely outcome of this election? I would have said to you, I think the most likely outcome is a narrower victory than Biden had in 2020 for Kamala Harris. If you ask me today, what do I think is the most likely outcome, I still believe that it is a narrower victory for Kamala Harris than what Biden had in 2020 but it is still a victory that may change if more of these critical battleground states fall to Donald Trump. Now there’s another aspect to this that I think is worth getting ahead of. It is completely plausible, feasible, maybe even likely, that Georgia or Pennsylvania or one or two deciding states will take a day or two to finalize results from this would be for a couple of different reasons. One is that with all of the different precincts and counties and such a small margin, it will simply take that long to feel really confident that we have the right result. And number two, it is anticipated that there will immediately be legal problems, challenges and and chaos generated by agents of Maga, starting on election day and going beyond. In fact, former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn already said that he believes if we don’t have results by November 6, there will be violence, which is a scary thing to think about, and probably for a different topic. But the point here is we should be prepared that November 5 at night, unless it’s a blowout, we’re not going to know the winner. November 6 in the morning, we still may not know the winner, and if we assume or imagine, Georgia flips to Trump, Arizona flips to Trump, it all then comes down to Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, notoriously, in 2020. Took a while to finish counting, not because anything was wrong, but because they have rules. 50 states with 50 sets of rules, Pennsylvania did stop counting on election night, resume counting the next day. This allowed Maga and Trump to usher in all sorts of conspiracy theories and allegations of subterfuge and explanations as to what’s going on. The best thing that the left can do is assume that it will come down to just a couple of states, because it probably will. Assume that we won’t get all of the numbers on november 5, and maybe not even on November 6. Assume that Republicans are going to do everything possible to generate as much chaos as they can, and that Trump will claim victory and be prepared for every contingency you can think of. Is it at courts? Is it at county elections offices? What exactly is it going to be? Where do you need lawyers? What sort of preparation is necessary? Because it’s almost certainly. Going to be the way that it goes down, and if it does, if it does, we don’t want them to have had a trial run in 2020 that maybe would succeed in 2024 if Harris loses. I’ve said this before, and I’ve said it again. If Harris loses, I don’t want her to force her way into the presidency. If she loses, she should not be president, but it is not clear that the Maga right has the same perspective when it comes to Trump