Given Harris’ momentum, Trump should be panicking

All right, has Donald Trump hit his peak, suggesting it’s all downhill from here? I want to talk about it. We have seen over the last several weeks, month, month and a half individual events, which in a normal campaign cycle, even if they were the only unusual thing that happened would be extraordinary. A Joe Biden’s June 27. debate performance terrible probably the worst debate performance in 50 years that alone in a normal presidential race would be the sole and singular event that completely shapes everything that happens between the event and November and impacts the outcome. Donald Trump’s surviving an assassination attempt to put the debate aside for a moment in a normal scenario, that alone would be Wow, that completely shakes up the presidential race in ways that could be unpredictable or certainly significant and long lasting. Trump choosing a vice president presidential running mate JD Vance, that seems widely disliked even by many Republicans, and continues does Vance to make gaffe after gaffe talking about how families without children or people without children should have less of a say in how society works. That alone is a complete and total disaster. The one of the candidates in this particular case Trump being convicted of 34 felonies and running as a convicted felon found liable civilly for sexual assault. Any one of these things in a normal presidential race would be, Wow, that’s incredible. We’ve had all of those things in the last several months. And the takeaway is one that has Magha world panicking, and they shouldn’t be, because no matter what happens, Trump seems unable to get beyond 47% When it comes to polling, and indeed, that may be his peak. Now, I think it is important to zoom out a little bit and to think back to 2020 in 2017 to 2016 first, then we’ll get to 2020. In 2016, Trump received 46% of the popular vote, he won electorally against Hillary Clinton, thanks to about 77,000 votes in a few states in 2020. After everything that happened in the intervening four years, a different opponent, Joe Biden, rather than Hillary Clinton, the power of incumbency, all of it through by the end Trump threatening if Biden wins, it will be a 1929 style depression, you won’t have indoor heating or cooling anymore, it’ll be the you don’t want to have energy, you won’t have anything if Biden wins. Despite all of that, in 2020, Trump gets 46% of the popular vote, it was closer to 47. But still it at 46 in front of it. All that and Trump unable to get to 47% of the popular vote. That really may be it. And the sign we are seeing is that according to The Real Clear Politics polling average on June 26, the day before the debate against Joe Biden, Trump led by an average of 1.5. Since then, he had what I would call a victorious debate performance, he lied his way through it, don’t get me wrong. But Biden’s performance was so conspicuously bad that it hurt Biden more and arguably knocked him out of the race Trump had since June 26. The debate against Joe Biden, which I concede he won, selected his VP survived an assassination attempt with this imagery of Fight, fight, fight and blood and the whole thing, which at one point, it seemed, wow, this guy he can’t possibly lose after that. They have a week long RNC Republican convention celebrating Trump. And after all that, Trump’s lead goes from 1.5 to 1.7. In the Real Clear Politics polling average now against Kamala Harris, rather than against Joe Biden. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is only getting started. While it seems as though Trump has peaked and he’s never gotten more than 46% of the vote. He can’t get beyond 47% in polling no matter what happens. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is raising hundreds of millions of dollars within just a few days of becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee after Joe Biden said he would step aside. Incredible, you know, hundreds of 1000s of people joining zoom calls record fundraising, the polling in swing states tightening Kamala Harris is a favourability according to a Fox News poll in swing states, surpassing that of Donald Trump, this may be Trump’s peak, and historically it seems to be while at the same time, this may be the baseline for Kamala Harris. And so when all you get is 0.2 percentage points from a combination of events, any one of which would normally be considered dispositive and figuring out what’s going to happen in an election. It doesn’t look good for Trump. Now if this is not a prediction or a guarantee, Trump very well could win. There are concerns about the number of election officials that are full Magga that are now going to be overseeing elections in various parts of the country. That’s a concern. But where the data is pointing right now, in terms of the non bump Trump got from the last six weeks of events, the fundraising money behind Kamala Harris and the enthusiasm gap. This is certainly a winnable race for Kamala Harris. Trump should be panicking and he is telling me what you expect as far as the popular vote will trump surpass the 46% He’s never before been able to surpass