All right, let’s discuss the case that is being made for the replacement of President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket after his very poor debate performance at the first presidential debate against Donald Trump. There are though and it was a bad performance, there is no denying it. Here I am starting from the point of it was a poor performance. As far as performances go. There is one side that is arguing vehemently, Biden must be replaced, the performance was so bad that he can’t possibly win. It’s obvious that Donald Trump is now going to crush Biden. If Biden stays on the ticket, he’s barely functional, he is simply not going to be able to do it. It is a certain fate of disaster to keep them in. On the other hand, there are those who say, you know, the debate performance wasn’t good. But Trump’s performance was also a disaster, he lied his way through the entire thing. debates in general, don’t make that much of a difference historically, if you apply a perspective like that of Alan Lichtman, who has his 13 keys to the presidency, you see that Biden’s debate performance doesn’t change the incumbency advantage. It doesn’t change whether the US is engaged in a major war, it doesn’t change the underlying economic conditions, it doesn’t change, whether there’s a strong third party candidate, all of the keys that determine the framework of a race don’t change. Because Biden’s debate performance was terrible. So then you get to the question, Who do you replace them with? And who does the replacing? And both of these are critical questions. First of all, it’s important to understand that Joe Biden has secured the nomination. The DNC rules are you need some number of delegates. And Biden has way more than that. So the idea of replacing Biden, it has to be done with Joe Biden’s blessing, because Joe Biden would have to agree to relinquish his delegates, he can’t be forced to do it. You can try to convince the guy family could try to convince him or others but you he has to go along with it. So if that were to happen, the delegates then would decide who gets to be the nominee. And there’s a real question as to whether voters on the Democratic Party of primary ballots, who voted for Biden are going to take kindly to delegate saying you voted for Biden, well, we’re picking someone else that’s chaotic. And that could hurt whoever the delegates select. Now, to be clear, I want to make sure you know, I don’t know what the right move is. I’m laying out both sides. The other possible problem with replacing Biden is that you then all of a sudden, have a non incumbent running for president. Non incumbents tend to do worse than incumbents. Now, you could say it’s special situation, because Biden’s performance was so bad and no one trusts him and but you take away the incumbency, which is an important thing. And in early polling, most of the names that are being floated, do one, two or three points worse than Biden and hypothetical post debate polling, Trump versus Biden or Trump versus Kamala Harris, or Trump versus Gavin Newsom, or Trump versus whoever they either do one, two or three points worse than Biden. Now, the counterpoint would be well, they might be doing worse now, because they aren’t the presumptive nominees. But if Biden dropped out, did a great Oval Office address. And the DNC said, here’s who we’re going to go with, and then that person becomes more well known, and is given the nomination of the DNC, then maybe someone who’s pulling one point below, Biden would end up pointing pulling four points ahead, maybe. But that’s a risk. The point here is that there is risk to sticking with Biden, and there is risk to replacing Biden. The other aspect of this that’s very important, is that even if someone is appalled by Joe Biden’s debate performance last week, as I was, it would be weird to say, I’m going to go and instead vote for the convicted felon civilly liable sexual assaulter. Who lied every time he was asked a question at that debate. Biden’s poor performance doesn’t lead any clear thinking individual to say I will vote for Trump instead. Could it dissuade you from voting at all? So you stay home? Yeah, that’s possible. It could. Could it make you I don’t know. I wish there was a different candidate, but at the end of the day, recognize the danger of Trump and project 2025 And agenda 47. And you still go out and vote for Biden? Yeah, that’s absolutely another possible outcome. So I think that this is far more complicated. If the people doing it for clicks are telling you the answers obvious. Biden must stay in, or Biden must get out. I believe that the devil is in the details. It all comes down to how it’s done we need more post debate polling before a decision could sanely and intelligently be made let me know what you think