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A worldwide show of strength may force Russia to back down from its threatened invasion of Ukraine and send a powerful message to others who are watching closely. Nearest to the center of the storm, countries to the north along the Baltic including Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, are dramatically increasing their defense budgets.
At the same time, Russia is facing growing resistance from Ukraine. The United States, Canada, and Great Britain are helping Ukraine strengthen its military with better training and better equipment. Ukrainians themselves are also pushing back.
People I trust believe that, in fact, even the Russian-speaking Ukrainians are now pro-Kyiv and anti-Putin. They don’t want to see a war. They don’t want to be occupied by Russia. They don’t want to become, you know, part of Moscow’s world. They want to orient towards the west. And so, it’s conceivable that Putin is gonna be told by his experts that you can’t effectively go into Ukraine.
It appears Russia may be positioning itself for disruption along the border without a full on invasion from its regular army.
The Russians have developed what they call hybrid warfare. That’s where they have various groups. They pay them, they might look like criminal gangs, but they’re actually Russian special forces.
One other consideration is Germany and its complex relationship with Russia.
Germany is now so dependent on Russian natural gas, and the former prime minister or chancellor in the German system of the Social Democratic Party, in fact, now is the chairman of a Russian oil company making a huge amount of money representing Russian interests. So, Germany, I think, has become the most unreliable ally, since the creation of NATO.
As for the U.S., in addition to military support, the Biden Administration is also laying out very strict sanctions if Putin were to proceed, and I must say, Biden’s team is handling this situation better than I expected.
They’ve been calmer, more forceful, and have taken the right kind of steps in general. Hopefully, it’ll work, because if Putin can get away with some kind of adventurism in Ukraine that sends a signal to Xi Jinping that he can probably get away with adventurism in Taiwan and may send a signal to the Iranians that they could get away with adventurism in the Middle East. So a lot depends on handling this calmly, firmly, but not giving into Putin and not allowing him to play games.
