Everyone, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado, we’re taking a entry from lost a limb in the start. Anyway, we’re taking an entry from the ask Peter forum, it relates to demographics. The question is I talk a lot about declining demographics and the impact that’s going to have. But what about countries that have sky high birth rates? Is this a good is is a bad is this another thing? The two that come to mind are Yemen and Nigeria, both of which have birth rates that are just ridiculously high? How sustainable is this? What’s the impact? Good question. I generally look at birth rates when I’m looking at more advanced economies where the industrial technologies have been in place for decades, when you’re talking about the quote younger economies where industrialization is more recent, there’s a couple other statistics you need to look at. The first is infant mortality, and especially child mortality under five years of age, see how likely is it that a child that who’s born is going to make it to five, and then second is life expectancy overall, is what happens when a country starts to industrialize is they don’t just get concrete and pavement and buildings and rebar and electricity. They also get vaccines and medical care. And this drastically decreases the death rate among the young and drastically increases the average age of mortality among the older folks. So what we’re seeing in Yemen, and especially Nigeria, is a steady inroads of these new technologies into the population. So it’s not just that the birth rate is high. Oftentimes, for these countries that are early in the early industrializing period, the recovery is very high. The question is whether or not the children survive. And then the question is whether the adults survive. So take the example of China from roughly 1985 until roughly 2015, the population doubled. But almost all of that population increase wasn’t from our organic birth rate. It was because people live longer, the lifespan basically doubled in that same period. Now, these gains are real, these people are more productive, but you only get those sorts of gains once. And now that China has basically rested all of the gains in longevity it can’t out of the system is if they’re coming up against the upper level of what humans are capable of today. There’s no one to replace them. So even if nothing goes wrong in the system, no financial crisis, no war, no agricultural crisis, you’re still looking at population collapse, because people can’t live any longer than they are. And for the last 50 years, people have not been having children. So that inverted funnel, the bottom just goes up and sucks away the entire population, Yemen and Nigeria at a much earlier stage of this process, there’s nothing to say that they’re condemned to the Chinese end result. But keep in mind that in the case of these two countries in particular, most notably Yemen, that all of the technologies that allow them to live longer come from a different continent. And so if anything happens to international trade, you should expect infant mortality to shoot up and life expectancy to collapse. And then they get us get sandwiched in between. It’s not nearly as dark of a story is what we’ve got going on in China. But it’s not exactly a great one. If you’re going to have life expectancy, and if you’re going to have infant mortality, be positive aspects on your society. You need to be able to be sure that you can produce the technologies that allow it to happen in the first place. Otherwise, you’re just as dependent on the rest of the world as if you imported 100% of your oil.
Related
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitical Strategist
View Video LibraryCommentary
Our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions on complex topics.
Why Putin axed Shoigu
Tuesday
Peter Zeihan
New roles for Russia, North Korea, Iran in global arms trade
Monday
Peter Zeihan
Why interest rates will be higher for longer
Friday
Peter Zeihan
‘The worst it’s ever been’: Young Americans on democracy
May 9
Dr. Frank Luntz
The trouble with ‘good’ demographics
Apr 10
By Straight Arrow News
Declining birth rates throughout much of Western Europe and America, and in other developed nations like Japan, have alarmed social scientists. Concern is most acute in nations where a shrinking workforce will be expected to pay for the rising costs of a much larger retiring population. But on the opposite end of this spectrum, rapid population growth can also destabilize a developing nation’s economy, depending on how that growth occurs.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan observes that rising life expectancies, not births, are the root cause for much of the population growth in nations like China, and he warns that those nations might be headed for economic collapse without an influx of younger workers. But even for nations with healthy demographics and rising birth rates, Zeihan adds, a reliance on imported medical tools and technology will emerge as a key vulnerability in the years ahead.
Everyone, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Colorado, we’re taking a entry from lost a limb in the start. Anyway, we’re taking an entry from the ask Peter forum, it relates to demographics. The question is I talk a lot about declining demographics and the impact that’s going to have. But what about countries that have sky high birth rates? Is this a good is is a bad is this another thing? The two that come to mind are Yemen and Nigeria, both of which have birth rates that are just ridiculously high? How sustainable is this? What’s the impact? Good question. I generally look at birth rates when I’m looking at more advanced economies where the industrial technologies have been in place for decades, when you’re talking about the quote younger economies where industrialization is more recent, there’s a couple other statistics you need to look at. The first is infant mortality, and especially child mortality under five years of age, see how likely is it that a child that who’s born is going to make it to five, and then second is life expectancy overall, is what happens when a country starts to industrialize is they don’t just get concrete and pavement and buildings and rebar and electricity. They also get vaccines and medical care. And this drastically decreases the death rate among the young and drastically increases the average age of mortality among the older folks. So what we’re seeing in Yemen, and especially Nigeria, is a steady inroads of these new technologies into the population. So it’s not just that the birth rate is high. Oftentimes, for these countries that are early in the early industrializing period, the recovery is very high. The question is whether or not the children survive. And then the question is whether the adults survive. So take the example of China from roughly 1985 until roughly 2015, the population doubled. But almost all of that population increase wasn’t from our organic birth rate. It was because people live longer, the lifespan basically doubled in that same period. Now, these gains are real, these people are more productive, but you only get those sorts of gains once. And now that China has basically rested all of the gains in longevity it can’t out of the system is if they’re coming up against the upper level of what humans are capable of today. There’s no one to replace them. So even if nothing goes wrong in the system, no financial crisis, no war, no agricultural crisis, you’re still looking at population collapse, because people can’t live any longer than they are. And for the last 50 years, people have not been having children. So that inverted funnel, the bottom just goes up and sucks away the entire population, Yemen and Nigeria at a much earlier stage of this process, there’s nothing to say that they’re condemned to the Chinese end result. But keep in mind that in the case of these two countries in particular, most notably Yemen, that all of the technologies that allow them to live longer come from a different continent. And so if anything happens to international trade, you should expect infant mortality to shoot up and life expectancy to collapse. And then they get us get sandwiched in between. It’s not nearly as dark of a story is what we’ve got going on in China. But it’s not exactly a great one. If you’re going to have life expectancy, and if you’re going to have infant mortality, be positive aspects on your society. You need to be able to be sure that you can produce the technologies that allow it to happen in the first place. Otherwise, you’re just as dependent on the rest of the world as if you imported 100% of your oil.
Related
Will Nigeria become Africa’s first superpower?
The security situation in West Africa continues to worsen following a string of military coups and ongoing armed conflicts. Additionally, in Mali and Niger, both former Western allies, new junta-led governments are aligning themselves with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Be the first to know when Peter Zeihan publishes a new commentary! Download the Straight Arrow…
59 mins ago
Why Putin axed Shoigu
On Monday, May 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov. It was a surprising move to some observers, as Putin had previously refused to oust Shoigu from that position even after the Wagner Group rebelled against Shoigu specifically. Others, like Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan, predicted this move…
Tuesday
New roles for Russia, North Korea, Iran in global arms trade
As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues and its weapons supply dwindles, it appears the country is seeking alternative ways of replenishing its arms stockpiles. Iran has reported a 40% increase in arms sales to foreign states, with Russia being a significant recipient. Russia has also been attempting to buy artillery from North Korea. Straight Arrow…
Monday
Why interest rates will be higher for longer
At the start of 2024, the outlook for the U.S. economy was optimistic. Inflation was falling, unemployment was shrinking and the country was experiencing strong GDP growth. As 2024 progressed, that situation changed. Inflation proved stubborn, remaining above 3%, and economic output slowed down, making the Federal Reserve’s initial prediction for six rate cuts no…
Friday
How to handle plunging US birth rate before it’s too late
The latest CDC report on the U.S. birth rate reveals a decline in fertility rates, with 2023 seeing just 1.62 births per woman, marking the lowest level since data collection began in the 1930s. Births in the U.S. decreased for over a decade prior to the onset of COVID-19, and then experienced a 4% drop…
May 9
Underreported stories from each side
Biden administration preparing to hand out 10K migrant ID cards in several US cities: report
14 sources | 0% from the left
Reuters
GOP Sen. Mitt Romney says Biden should have pardoned Trump
12 sources | 17% from the right
Reuters
Latest Stories
Neuralink knew of issues with brain implant for years: Report
Watch 1:56
26 mins ago
NATO needs options to deal with deadly drones. Here are two.
Watch 6:56
1 hr ago
US-built pier for humanitarian aid anchored in Gaza
Watch 0:54
4 hrs ago
Slovakia’s prime minister in serious condition after assassination attempt
Watch 0:57
4 hrs ago
Putin meets with Xi in China as leaders look to strengthen ties
Watch 6:33
6 hrs ago
Popular Opinions
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum.
Universities must blame themselves for protest hypocrisy
1 hr ago
Timothy Carney
It’s okay for Met Gala celebrities to avoid politics
2 hrs ago
Jordan Reid
Biden sees Trump jail time as sole path to reelection
Yesterday
Newt Gingrich
Why the United States must regulate ghost guns
Yesterday
Adrienne Lawrence