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Larry Lindsey

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Polls give slight advantage to Trump in Electoral College

Monday

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With the U.S. general election only six months away, leading candidates President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump appear to be engaged in a very close contest. In their 2020 race, the winner of the Electoral College was ultimately determined by a relative handful of voters in just a few swing states, even though Biden decisively won the nationwide popular vote by around 7,000,000. Polling data indicates that Americans may be in for a similarly close battle in the 2024 Biden v. Trump rematch.

Straight Arrow News contributor Larry Lindsey looks at the data, singles out the swing states that will matter the most and predicts a Trump win this November based on the current polling numbers.

The Trump-Biden race at the top of the ticket is a virtual tie. Trump is slightly ahead, he’s ahead by about one point in a head-to-head matchup. And he’s ahead by closer to two points when the other three candidates, including [Robert F.] Kennedy and Cornel West and the green candidate, are put in the race.

Although the top of the ticket seems to be a virtual tie, we don’t elect our presidents by a popular vote on a nationwide basis. Instead, each state elects electors, and those electors vote. Now, some people say that’s not democratic, the majority should rule regardless what [sic] constitutional convention saw things a little bit differently. They wanted to limit the power of any one state, and in particular, having the voters in any one state or one party state simply pile up a huge majority in that state, which would overwhelm the views of people in other states. And so they decided to have the election on a state-by- state basis.

In modern times, what that does is force both parties to campaign toward the center, because the states that are swing are generally more moderate states with two-party presses and two-party views of things. So you’re competing for swing voters this way. Right now, there are seven states that are generally considered swing states…

Well, there’s still about six months to go until the election this November. But it’s worth taking a look at where the race now stands. The Trump Biden race at the top of the ticket is a virtual tie. Trump is slightly ahead, he’s headed by about one point and head to head matchup. And he’s ahead by closer to two points when the other three candidates, including Kennedy and Cornel West, and the green candidate are put in the race. Although the top of the ticket seems to be a virtual tie, we don’t elect our presidents by a popular vote on a nationwide basis. Instead, each state elects electors, and those electors vote. Now, some people say that’s not democratic. The majority should rule regardless what constitutional convention saw things a little bit differently. They wanted to limit the power of any one state. And in particular, having the voters in any one state or one party state simply pile up a huge majority in that state, which would overwhelm the views of people in other states. And so they decided to have the election on a state by state basis. In modern times, what that does, is forced both parties to campaign toward the center, because the states that are swing are generally more moderate states with two party presses and two party views of things. So you’re competing for swing voters this way. Right now, there are seven states that are generally considered swing states, Arizona and Nevada in the West, Georgia and North Carolina in the south, and western Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in the Great Lakes region. Trump has a solid lead, generally four to five points in Arizona and Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina. Where are those three great lake Lake states that his edge is much closer to his national average of one to two. So if you ignore these states, Biden has a slight edge and the Electoral College to 26 to 219. Were 270 votes are needed for election. If every state one went the way that the polls now say it’s going to go, then Trump would end up winning 312 to 226. But again, it’s a long time. So Election Day and lots can happen. When you look at the polls or other strange things, one thing that I find most curious is that Trump is running ahead of Republican Senate candidates, particularly in these swing states. Now, Trump is supposed to be the hated that’s a noir of American politics. But if that’s true, why is he running ahead of Republican Senate candidates? He seems to be leading the ticket not being pulled along by it. What’s interesting about the numbers is that it’s not that the Democrat candidate is doing better than Biden. They’re basically on a straight ticket basis. If you’re going to vote for Biden, the chances are, you’re gonna vote for your Democrat Senate candidate. The problem is, is that in states where Republicans are leading where Trump is leading, some of those Trump voting Republicans aren’t necessarily going to vote down ballot for other Republican candidates. One reason why that might be the case is that Republican Senate candidates don’t quite know how to deal with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. If they’re too nice to him forming would might be one word, then a lot of moderate voters may not support them. On the other hand, if they’re not supportive enough, then true believing Trump voters may consider them not mogga. Or they might call them rhinos Republicans in name only, and therefore will simply leave that part of the ballot blank. That seems to be happening. But there’s another strange phenomenon. And that has to do with the fact that there are other candidates in the race, most notably Robert Kennedy. Kennedy right now is drawing about twice as many votes from Trump as he is from Biden. Now, how might that be explained? Well, the logic is that it’s not just Trump, who’s problematic, it’s Biden as well, is policies have not been a success in the view of most Americans. He has an age issue while so according to many voters. And so it might be that these voters have decided, No way, are they going to vote for Biden? Well, then they have a choice to make to the vote for the guy who’s most likely to beat him that is Trump, or do they decide I want to take a chance on Trump either, and then say, well, I’m going to vote for Kennedy. Well, that would explain the numbers as well. And we’ll have to see which way that goes. We’ll have to see whether Kennedy voters are still going to come mainly from the Trump camp. Turns out that Robert Kennedy is kind of the populace Democrat, like a traditional Democrat on most issues, but sympathetic to issues that some people call fringe issues or conspiracy theory issues, which also attract voters to Trump. Very complicated election this year. I think people who are certain who’s going to win might want to rethink, but if the election were held today, the chances are that the popular vote will be about tied, but Trump will win the electoral college in the presidency. This is Larry Lindsey for straight arrow News.

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