Despite nationwide concerns about violent crime on the rise in the U.S., newly released data shows a marked decline in at least one type of violent crime. According to preliminary data from law enforcement, the homicide rate in the U.S. is expected to drop by 13% by the end of the year.
It is historic. It’s the largest one-year decline
Jeff Asher, crime analyst
The double-digit decline is equal to over 2,000 fewer homicides than there were in 2022. Nationally, the homicide numbers mark a record decline; crime analyst Jeff Asher told ABC News that the U.S. has not seen a nationwide decrease like this since 1996, when homicides fell by 9%.
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“It is historic. It’s the largest one-year decline,” Asher said. “It’s cities of every size, it’s the suburbs, it’s rural counties, tiny cities, it’s large cities. It’s really a national decline.”
The decrease follows the record jump in homicides in 2020 and a significant increase in 2021. However, this year’s decrease in homicide rates doesn’t align with America’s perception of crime.
According to a recent Gallup poll, more than three-quarters of Americans believe crime rates are worse this year than in 2022.
Fifty-eight percent of Democrats and 78% of Independents believe crime is up. Republicans overwhelmingly believe crime is worse than last year at 92%.
Asher, a former CIA crime analyst, said what news outlets cover and what is seen on social media likely plays a role in American’s perception of crime, which, he added, has been at odds with actual crime data.
Despite what seems like non-stop coverage of crime in the news, 2023 homicide numbers are down by double digits nationwide, including in many major cities like Chicago, New York City, Philadelphia, Houston and Los Angeles, according to the preliminary data.
While national homicide numbers are down, there are still some outliers. As of this week, numbers show Washington D.C. and Dallas both saw homicides jump this year compared to last.
Tags: Chicago, Crime, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, New York City, Philadelphia, Police, Washington DC
[KARAH RUCKER]
WHILE VIOLENT CRIME REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATED COMPARED TO PRE-PANDEMIC YEARS, 2023 WAS A SAFER YEAR THAN 2022 ACCORDING TO NEWLY RELEASED DATA.
HOMICIDE RATES YEAR-OVER-YEAR HAVE DROPPED AT THE FASTEST RATE EVER.
DESPITE NATIONWIDE CONCERNS ABOUT VIOLENT CRIME ON THE RISE IN THE U-S – NEWLY RELEASED DATA SHOWS A MARKED DECLINE IN AT LEAST ONE TYPE OF VIOLENT CRIME YEAR-OVER-YEAR.
CBS NEW YORK: “CRIME IN ONE OF NEW JERSEY’S LARGEST CITIES IS ON THE DECLINE. JERSEY CITY REPORTING HISTORIC DROPS IN HOMICIDES AND OTHER VIOLENT CRIMES.”
[KARAH RUCKER]
NATIONALLY THE HOMICIDE NUMBERS MARK A RECORD DECLINE – A CRIME ANALYST TELLING ABC NEWS THAT THE U-S HAS NOT SEEN A NATIONWIDE DECREASE LIKE THIS SINCE 19-96 WHEN HOMICIDES FELL BY 9-PERCENT. THE DECREASE FOLLOWS THE RECORD JUMP IN HOMICIDES IN 2020 AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN 2021.
BUT THAT DOESN’T ALIGN AMERICA’S PERCEPTION ON CRIME – ACCORDING TO A RECENT GALLUP POLL. MORE THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AMERICANS BELIEVE CRIME RATES ARE WORSE THIS YEAR THAN IN 2022.
INCLUDING 58% OF DEMOCRATS AND 7% OF INDEPENDENTS WHO BELIEVE CRIME IS UP. REPUBLICANS OVERWHELMINGLY BELIEVE CRIME IS WORSE THAN LAST YEAR AT 92%.
CRIMINOLOGY ANALYST JEFF ASHER SAYS WHAT NEWS OUTLETS COVER AND WHAT IS SEEN ON SOCIAL MEDIA IS LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN TO AMERICA’S PERCEPTION ON CRIME – WHICH, HE SAYS, HAS BEEN AT ODDS WITH ACTUAL CRIME DATA.
FOX 13 TAMPA BAY: “23 YEAR-OLD MOTHER OF TWO IS DEAD AFTER BEING SHOT BY HER OWN BROTHER.”
FOX5 LAS VEGAS: “WE ARE LEARNING NEW DETAILS THIS EVENING ABOUT A CRIME SPREE THAT TURNED INTO AN OFFICER INVOLVED SHOOTING.”
ABC7 CHICAGO: “PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN SEVERAL WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE ON EDGE TODAY AFTER A GROUP OF ATTACKERS PULL OFF MORE THAN A DOZEN ARMED ROBBERIES IN JUST TWO HOURS.”
[KARAH RUCKER]
DESPITE WHAT SEEMS LIKE NON-STOP COVERAGE OF CRIME IN THE NEWS, 2023 HOMICIDE NUMBERS ARE DOWN BY DOUBLE DIGITS NATIONWIDE, INCLUDING IN MANY MAJOR CITIES LIKE CHICAGO, NEW YORK CITY, PHILADELPHIA, HOUSTON AND LOS ANGELES – ACCORDING TO THE PRELIMINARY DATA.
WHILE NATIONALLY HOMICIDE NUMBERS ARE DOWN, THERE ARE STILL SOME OUTLIERS. AS OF THIS WEEK NUMBERS SHOW D.C. AND DALLAS BOTH SAW HOMICIDES JUMP THIS YEAR COMPARED TO LAST.
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