As Trump plans record deportations, how would it compare to past presidents?

[Lauren Taylor]

IMMIGRATION AND DEPORTATION HAS BEEN A SMOLDERING ISSUE IN AMERICAN POLITICS FOR DECADES. WITH PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP PROMISING HISTORY’S LARGEST MASS DEPORTATION EFFORT, HOW WILL THE ACTUAL NUMBERS STACK UP TO HIS PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATION? AND HOW DOES HIS RECORD COMPARE TO BIDEN’S AND OBAMA’S?ACCORDING TO PEW RESEARCH… AROUND 11 MILLION PEOPLE LIVE IN THE U-S ILLEGALLY. OF THOSE… 8-POINT-3 MILLION ARE EMPLOYED, ACCOUNTING FOR NEARLY 5-PERCENT OF THE U-S WORKFORCE. THESE ARE THE MOST RECENT NUMBERS FROM 2022 AND THE EXACT TOTAL COULD BE MUCH HIGHER.

DEPORTATION IN THE U-S HAPPENS THROUGH TWO MAIN CHANNELS… REMOVALS AND RETURNS.

REMOVALS INVOLVE FORMAL DEPORTATION ORDERS ENFORCED BY ICE OR BORDER PATROL, MAKING REENTRY A CRIME.

RETURNS ARE LESS FORMAL, INCLUDING CASES WHERE INDIVIDUALS VOLUNTARILY LEAVE OR ARE TURNED AWAY AT THE BORDER.

UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA, THE U.S. SAW THE HIGHEST DEPORTATION TOTALS IN HISTORY. TOTAL REMOVALS DURING OBAMA’S PRESIDENCY AMOUNTED TO OVER 3 MILLION PEOPLE. AND WHEN INCLUDING BOTH REMOVALS AND RETURNS, THAT NUMBER JUMPS TO NEARLY 5 AND A QUARTER MILLION.

OBAMA PRIORITIZED TARGETING INDIVIDUALS WHO WERE THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY OR HAD CRIMINAL CONVICTIONS. IN 2015, FOR EXAMPLE, 91-PERCENT OF ALL REMOVALS INVOLVED INDIVIDUALS WITH CRIMINAL RECORDS.

NOW TO PRESIDENT TRUMP. DURING HIS TIME IN OFFICE FROM 2017 TO 2020, THE U-S DEPORTED 1-POINT-2 MILLION PEOPLE THROUGH FORMAL REMOVAL ORDERS. MORE THAN 800-THOUSAND ADDITIONAL INDIVIDUALS SELF-DEPORTED OR WERE TURNED AWAY AT THE BORDER.

THIS BRINGS TRUMP’S TOTAL DEPORTATIONS AND RETURNS TO JUST OVER 2 MILLION… SIGNIFICANTLY FEWER THAN OBAMA’S.

UNLIKE OBAMA, TRUMP EXPLICITLY OVERTURNED THE CRIMINAL PRIORITIZATION POLICY, WHICH RESULTED IN ONLY 41-PERCENT OF REMOVALS IN 2019 INVOLVING INDIVIDUALS WITH CRIMINAL RECORDS.

FINALLY, UNDER PRESIDENT BIDEN…. THE U-S HAS REPATRIATED NEARLY 5 MILLION PEOPLE SO FAR… MORE THAN BOTH TRUMP AND OBAMA.

HOWEVER, THERE’S AN IMPORTANT CAVEAT. THE SPIKE IS LARGELY DUE TO TITLE 42… A PANDEMIC-ERA POLICY ENACTED IN 2020 DURING TRUMP’S PRESIDENCY, WHICH ALLOWED EXPULSIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH REASONS. 

OF THE 4-POINT-7 MILLION REPATRIATIONS, NEARLY A MILLION OCCURRED UNDER STANDARD IMMIGRATION LAW, TITLE 8, AFTER TITLE 42 ENDED IN MAY 2023.

WHEN FOCUSING SOLELY ON FORMAL REMOVALS, BIDEN’S NUMBERS ARE FAR LOWER… WITH JUST 649-THOUSAND REMOVALS SINCE 2021. THAT’S ABOUT HALF OF TRUMP’S TOTAL OVER A COMPARABLE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, IN 2024, ONLY 20-PERCENT OF REMOVALS INVOLVED INDIVIDUALS WITH CRIMINAL RECORDS.

MEANWHILE, PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP IS DOUBLING DOWN ON HIS PROMISE TO LAUNCH THE LARGEST DEPORTATION OPERATION IN U.S. HISTORY. HIS ADMINISTRATION PLANS TO FOCUS INITIALLY ON CRIMINAL DEPORTATIONS, BUT TRUMP HAS NOT SET A NUMERICAL GOAL. 

EXPERTS SAY SUCH AN OPERATION COULD BE COSTLY. A SINGLE DEPORTATION COSTS ALMOST 11-THOUSAND PER PERSON, AND DEPORTING 1 MILLION PEOPLE ANNUALLY COULD COST OVER 100 BILLION DOLLARS OVER THE NEXT DECADE.

WITH TRUMP’S PROMISES OF SWEEPING REFORMS, THE DEBATE OVER COST, LEGALITY, AND STRATEGY IS ONLY HEATING UP.

FOR STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS… I’M LAUREN TAYLOR.

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