Simone Del Rosario:

Hi, Barbie, indeed. The Greta Gerwig fantasy had a stellar second weekend at the box office, raking in another 93 million. That puts its two-week total at more than a third of a billion dollars domestically, the types of numbers that are generally reserved for the likes of Star Wars and Marvel. And that’s just one half of the Barbenheimer phenomenon. Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer had the best second weekend ever for an R-rated summer pic. Its domestic total now at 175 million through two weekends. 

The combined total is the biggest for cinema since before the COVID-19 pandemic. Stats like this would normally give studios reason to celebrate, movies are back, but not so fast. The two ongoing labor disputes with Hollywood writers and actors threatened to derail the Barbenheimer momentum. Comscore Senior Media Analyst, Paul Dergarabedian, joining me now. Paul, thanks for being with us.

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

Simone, it’s great to be here, thank you.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

What do you think it is about these two films that really drove people to the movie theaters in a way that hasn’t been done in years?

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

Yeah, it’s pretty amazing to have two films from rival studios become partners in this box office. Bonanza is quite unprecedented. And it all started with the release dates July 21 and both films landing on that same date Warner Brothers and Universal saying we’re going on that date. And they probably thought each movie would not necessarily have that much to do with each other because they’re so different. Yet now they become linked pretty much forever. because the Barbenheimer phenomenon and the box office results are amazing. These two films together combined at this point, $1.2 billion worldwide and counting. Barbie is closing in at 800 million worldwide. That is for sure that movie Barbie gonna land in a billion dollar club. It’s so good for the industry. But like you said, there are headwinds happening right now amidst this sugar high that we’re on with Barbenheimer.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

Yeah, and the success of Barbenheimer really makes Disney’s haunted mansion flop that much more stark. What happened there?

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

Well, you know, the steamroller that is Barbenheimer was just gonna take out everything in its wake. And I think that happened with Haunted Mansion. The good news I think for Haunted Mansion is that, look, Halloween is right around the corner. Disney Plus is waiting. So a lot of horror movies, and this isn’t a sense, it’s more of a comedy, but movies themed like this around Halloween, that kind of vibe, the Haunted Mansion type of vibe, can do very well on streaming in perpetuity. So Disney Plus just waiting to be haunted. Haunted Mansion, I think it’ll do well there, but a really tough marketplace to enter into even after the second weekend of Barbenheimer still going strong.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

Yeah, it’s pretty mind-blowing.

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

Yeah.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

Haunted Mansion in particular had such a star-studded cast, but

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

I know.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

because of the strikes, they couldn’t be out promoting the film. Are these the sort of immediate impacts we’re seeing because of the strikes?

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

Well, I think Haunted Mansion would have had a lot of competition there from Barbenheimer no matter what, because it’s so much stronger that phenomenon even in the second weekend than anyone had imagined, especially when they set the release date for Haunted Mansion. But no question that the writers strike and the actors strike have a profound impact. The longer this goes on, meaning actors can’t actively promote their films go on talk shows do q&a is all those various appearances, red carpets. And that certainly puts a damper a bit on the marketing efforts. And then beyond that, if you don’t have writers writing scripts, you don’t have movies in the pipeline. So that will eventually slow down, maybe not completely dry up. And then we’ll have to see what impact the actor strike has in terms of the marketing. And it’s important for some films that are very star driven. Other films rely more on just the inherent marketing message, not necessarily star participation. So there’s a lot going on here, but You had no question that in the midst of this really positive box office story, the actor and writer’s strikes are looming large over the industry.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

Okay, so how much runway do studios have in front of them before the strikes take a toll? How many more months are we looking at here?

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

Well, I think right now, if things are resolved, we would probably be fine as an industry, but moving forward, the longer this goes, and especially when we get into the, uh, you know, the holiday movie season awards season, where it’s really important that the actors and filmmakers go out and talk about those movies. That’s a big deal. And then beyond that, again, if you don’t have scripts being written, you can’t produce movies. And if you don’t have movies, what are you going to go to the movie theater for? So. Hopefully this gets resolved sooner than later. And the thing that the Barbenheimer phenomenon points out is that movies well-written, acted by great actors in front of the camera and then talent in front of the camera, behind the camera are so essential. And look what happens when the studios, their parent companies, the actors, the writers, the movie theaters and the fans are all working together. You get a result like Barbenheimer, which has generated in the domestic market, US and Canada, in about a week and a half, it’ll be closing in on $800 million for all movies in the marketplace being supercharged by Barmanheimer. This is huge for the movie theater industry for sure, but headwinds are there and looming large.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

Yeah, so what are studios doing right now to prepare for maybe a pretty cold winter?

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

Yeah, I mean, well, you know what, some what now it’s shifting to the marketing teams to get really creative

 

Simone Del Rosario:

Mm. 

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

if they don’t have that star participation in the marketing. So on that side of it studios, for instance, Gran Turismo, which is an August release, that’s a movie where they’re doing sneak previews to get the word out to have, you know, shift the marketing messaging to the fans so they can get that out there on social media, since the stars won’t be able to. And then of course, some movies may shift release dates into next year, hoping that the strike gets resolved before the impact of the actor’s inability to campaign for their movies. If that doesn’t get resolved, I think it’s making studios very nervous about their big films that they think need those stars in front of the camera, talking about those movies to get people excited to go see them.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

And of course these studios are important players in these strike negotiations, but it’s not just the studios being affected by this from a business sense. We think about movie theaters, which really went through it during the pandemic.

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

That’s right.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

How are they coping with these possibilities?

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

Well, movie theaters right now are enjoying a boom at the box office, but again, everyone’s very nervous because theaters obviously don’t create movies. They don’t produce them. They don’t write and film them. So they’re reliant upon those films to put on their screens, to host the patrons, the movie goers. And without that production pipeline, the box office absolutely shrinks. And we saw that last year. There were many fewer films on the calendar. than in the pre-pandemic era. This year we’re back to a normal level of wide release films. But again, if you don’t have the films out there, it’s making everyone really nervous, especially theaters that need those movies in the pipeline.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

So let’s lift that dark cloud out of the way for a second

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

Yeah.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

and just talk about the momentum that the cinematic industry is seeing right now.

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

Yeah.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

Given the success of Barbenheimer, is this really the push that studios and companies needed to see to say, we need more theatrical releases to this level when for years we were seeing more of a movement towards streaming?

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

Right, I think this is the greatest thing, the Barbenheimer phenomenon that could have happened for movie theaters. Because if the naysayers aren’t silenced at this point about thinking that the movie theater is gonna go away and streaming is gonna take over, I don’t know what you have to do. I mean, it just shows that when you have a well-marketed movie or movies, and you have audiences who are excited to go to the movie theater, there’s nothing like that cultural resonance that a movie theater release can bring. I mean, if… If these two movies, if Barbie and Oppenheimer, for instance, had been released simultaneously on streaming, I don’t think we’d be talking about this right now. I don’t think it’d be a phenomenon. Cultural phenomena are created in the movie theater when it comes to the movie business. If you look at The Exorcist, The Godfather, go back in history to Jaws, of course, the first Star Wars movie, and even Avengers Endgame in 2019 and other big movies, it just doesn’t happen any other way, and that shows how important movie theaters are. not only to the fans and the movies and the box office bottom line, but just culturally their significance and how much they mean to people, how much that movie going experience going to the movie theater means to people. And that’s really important. It’s really a positive message going forward. So that’s great for the big screen.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

So what is your takeaway then when we see Disney struggling so much to create any sort of magic at the box office?

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

You know, it’s tough. These studios with this major IP that they have, and for instance, with Disney, I mean, they have Marvel and Pixar and Lucasfilm and all these big brands under their belt. And when these movies don’t perform to expectations, I think that people start wondering what’s going on. And look, every studio has hits and misses for every Barbie and Oppenheimer, there’s something that doesn’t work. That just means the movie business is back to normal. But when you have these companies that are also involved in theme parks, they have TV networks, they’re multifaceted. It really does create a lot of pressure on those companies to deliver. And there seems to be nothing more high profile than box office flops or hits. And that’s why it’s so important that the movie theater part or the movie release part, I should say, of a company like Disney’s, you know, portfolio is firing on all cylinders and guardians of the galaxy did really well. They have big upcoming movies. I mean, Haunted Mansion, of course, that was a bit of a disappointment, but it’s a tough business. It’s not for the faint of heart.

 

Simone Del Rosario:

Paul Dergarabedian, Comscore senior media analyst, Thank you so much for breaking this all down for us.

 

Paul Dergarabedian:

Thank you Simone, I appreciate it.