CEO confidence soars to highest level in 3 years in Trump’s first weeks

• CEO confidence hit its highest mark in three years, just weeks into President Donald Trump’s first term. CEOs broadly saw fewer risks related to regulation and the economy.
• The Conference Board said the swing upward shows CEOs moved quickly from cautious optimism to confident optimism.
• Consumers are not as confident as CEOs. In February, consumer sentiment plunged to levels not seen since November 2023.

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Confidence among chief executives shot up to levels not seen in three years during President Donald Trump’s first weeks in the White House. The Conference Board’s measure of CEO confidence went up nine points in the first quarter of 2025. 

Any measure above 50 reflects more positive than negative responses. In the latest survey of 134 CEOs, taken between Jan. 27 and Feb. 10, the measure of confidence was at 60, the first time it’s been well above 50 since early 2022. 

The Conference Board said the swing upward shows CEOs are shifting from cautious optimism seen throughout 2024 to confident optimism in 2025. 

“The improvement in CEO confidence in the first quarter of 2025 was significant and broad-based,” The Conference Board Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard said. “All components of the measure improved, as CEOs were substantially more optimistic about current economic conditions as well as about future economic conditions – both overall and in their own industries.”

By the numbers

More CEOs say economic conditions are better than they were six months ago. 

• 44% of CEOs said economic conditions have improved, up from 20% last quarter.
• 11% said economic conditions are worse, down from 30% last quarter.

More CEOs have a positive outlook on future economic conditions over the next six months. 

• 56% of CEOs expect economic conditions to improve, up from 33% last quarter.
• 15% expect conditions to worsen, down from 23%.

What led to the surge in confidence?

The Conference Board said the first quarter’s surge in CEO confidence comes as CEO concerns about business risks ease. Compared to late last year, fewer CEOs ranked cyber threats, regulatory uncertainty, financial and economic risks, and supply chain disruptions as high-impact risks. 

In a Jan. 31 executive order titled, “Unleashing Prosperity Through Deregulation,” Trump ordered agencies to identify 10 regulations that could be eliminated for every new regulation they propose.

The White House said Trump will “halt the job-killing and inflation-driving regulatory blitz of the Biden Administration.”

While the Conference Board saw widespread easing of risk concerns, they pointed out one exception. With geopolitical instability, 55% of CEOs saw it as a high-impact risk to their industry in early 2025, up from 52% in the final quarter of 2024. 

Consumers aren’t as confident as CEOs

Consumer sentiment plunged in February just as the outlook from CEOs turned more positive. In the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index released Friday, Feb. 21, consumer sentiment slid nearly 10% from January. 

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said the slide was unanimous across age, income and wealth groups. She said it was led by a 19% plunge in buying conditions, “in large part due to fears that tariff-induced price increases are imminent.”

However, the data showed a significant divide among political parties. The drop in consumer sentiment was exclusively driven by Democrats and Independents. From January to February, the index measuring Republicans remained unchanged.

It’s the lowest consumer sentiment reading since November 2023. Inflation expectations among consumers for the year ahead jumped from 3.3% last month to 4.3% in February, also the highest expectation since November 2023.

In January, the consumer price index showed inflation rose 3% over the year. However, the monthly price increase was 0.5%, the highest monthly inflation reading since August 2023. 

Annual consumer price inflation has risen four months in a row since bottoming out at 2.4% in September 2024.