In a forecast that has reignited some economic concerns, Peter Berezin, the chief global strategist at BCA Research, anticipates a 30% decline in the S&P 500. Berezin warned of a looming recession possibly as soon as late 2024 or early 2025.
Berezin attributes his prediction to a projected slowdown in the labor market that he believes will escalate rapidly, placing immense pressure on consumer spending — an essential driver of economic activity.
Point phone camera here
Recent economic indicators have shown a mixed picture.
Consumer spending has shown signs of deceleration in recent months. The labor market, as indicated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has maintained relative stability despite a three-year low in open job positions reported in April. The forthcoming June jobs report, set for release Friday, July 5, is expected to provide further insights into the trajectory of the economy.
While Berezin’s forecast paints a gloomy outlook, not all economists share his pessimism. Some, including the chief economist at Goldman Sachs, have expressed confidence earlier that the U.S. is far from entering a recession.
Reflecting on the history of economic predictions, MIT professor Paul Samuelson’s famous quip resonates: “The stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions.” It underscores the challenge of accurately forecasting economic downturns.
Despite data indicating the absence of a recession currently, a recent Harris poll found that a majority of Americans believe the country is already in a recession. If Berezin’s predictions materialize, the implications could be profound, influencing upcoming elections as voters decide on leadership amid economic uncertainty.
[KARAH RUCKER]
REMEMBER HEADLINES LIKE THESE?
3 OUT OF 4 ECONOMISTS PREDICT A RECESSION BY 2021.
“UGLY INFLATION MAKES A RECESSION MORE LIKELY IN 2022”
“RECESSION FEARS GROW.”
“U.S. RECESSION ODDS RISE TO 100%.”
WHILE THESE ARE ALL OLD HEADLINES AND A RECESSION NEVER HAPPENED–
THE FEARS ARE RESURFACING –
IN ONE OF THE GLOOMIEST FORECASTS FOR WALL STREET.
A LEADING “BCA RESEARCH” ANALYST PREDICTING THE S-AND-P 500 TO FALL 30% –
HE BELIEVES THE U.S. WILL FALL INTO A RECESSION EITHER LATE THIS YEAR OR IN EARLY 2025.
PETER BEREZIN – THE “CHIEF GLOBAL STRATEGIST” AT BCA RESEARCH – IS PREDICTING “A SLOWDOWN IN THE LABOR MARKET” WILL SOON “ACCELERATE RAPIDLY.”
HE SAYS THAT IN TURN – WILL PUT AN “ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF PRESSURE ON CONSUMER SPENDING” –
WHICH BEREZIN SAYS IS A RECIPE FOR RECESSION.
CONSUMER SPENDING HAS SLOWED IN RECENT MONTHS.
THE LABOR MARKET SAW “OPEN JOBS” FALL TO A 3 YEAR-LOW IN APRIL –
AND NEW DATA FROM THE “BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS” SHOWS A FAIRLY STABLE LABOR MARKET.
THE JOBS REPORT FOR JUNE COMING OUT THIS FRIDAY WILL OFFER FURTHER INDICATION ON WHAT DIRECTION THE ECONOMY IS HEADING.
WHILE SOME ECONOMISTS ARE PREDICTING THINGS TO GO SOUTH –
OTHERS SAY THE OPPOSITE –
INCLUDING THE CHIEF ECONOMIST OF GOLDMAN SACHS –
SAYING EARLIER THIS YEAR THE U.S. “IS NOWHERE NEAR A RECESSION” –
AND HASN’T BEEN.
AS MIT PROFESSOR PAUL SAMUELSON SAID IN 1982 – WHCIH CAN STILL BE APPLIED TODAY –
“THE STOCK MARKET HAS PREDICTED NINE OUT OF THE LAST FIVE RECESSIONS.”
IT’S A GAME OF PREDICTION THAT ECONOMISTS PLAY.
AND ONE THEY OFTEN GET WRONG..
WHILE THE DATA SHOWS THE U.S. ECONOMY IS NOT IN A RECESSION –
A HARRIS POLL OUT THIS SUMMER FOUND THE **MAJORITY OF AMERICANS –
BELIEVE THE U.S. IS ALREADY IN ONE.
AND IF THIS ONE STRATEGIST WITH BCA RESEARCH HAPPENS TO BE RIGHT ABOUT A RECESSION AT THE END OF 2024 OR START OF 2025 IS RIGHT –
THEN VOTERS WILL SOON BE DECIDING THE PRESIDENT THEY WANT TO LEAD THE COUNTRY THROUGH IT.
WE TOLD YOU ABOUT THE JUNE JOBS REPORT OUT THIS FRIDAY.
BE SURE TO DOWNLOAD THE STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS APP AND SIGN UP FOR NEWS ALERTS SO YOU CAN GET A BREAKDOWN OF WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US ABOUT THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY.
DOWNLOAD OUR MOBILE APP TODAY AND VISIT US ON THE WEB AT SAN DOT COM.
Straight to your inbox.
By entering your email, you agree to the Terms & Conditions and acknowledge the Privacy Policy.
