Economist predicts stocks to fall 30%. Are recession fears back?

[KARAH RUCKER]

REMEMBER HEADLINES LIKE THESE?

3 OUT OF 4 ECONOMISTS PREDICT A RECESSION BY 2021.

“UGLY INFLATION MAKES A RECESSION MORE LIKELY IN 2022”

“RECESSION FEARS GROW.”

“U.S. RECESSION ODDS RISE TO 100%.”

WHILE THESE ARE ALL OLD HEADLINES AND A RECESSION NEVER HAPPENED–

THE FEARS ARE RESURFACING –

IN ONE OF THE GLOOMIEST FORECASTS FOR WALL STREET.

A LEADING  “BCA RESEARCH” ANALYST PREDICTING THE S-AND-P 500  TO FALL 30% –

HE BELIEVES THE U.S. WILL FALL INTO A RECESSION EITHER LATE THIS YEAR OR IN EARLY 2025.

PETER BEREZIN – THE “CHIEF GLOBAL STRATEGIST” AT BCA RESEARCH – IS PREDICTING “A SLOWDOWN IN THE LABOR MARKET” WILL SOON “ACCELERATE RAPIDLY.”

HE SAYS THAT IN TURN – WILL PUT AN “ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF PRESSURE ON CONSUMER SPENDING” – 

WHICH BEREZIN SAYS IS A RECIPE FOR RECESSION.

CONSUMER SPENDING HAS SLOWED IN RECENT MONTHS.

THE LABOR MARKET SAW “OPEN JOBS” FALL TO A 3 YEAR-LOW IN APRIL –

AND NEW DATA FROM THE “BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS” SHOWS A FAIRLY STABLE LABOR MARKET.

THE JOBS REPORT FOR JUNE COMING OUT THIS FRIDAY WILL OFFER FURTHER INDICATION ON WHAT DIRECTION THE ECONOMY IS HEADING.

WHILE SOME ECONOMISTS ARE PREDICTING THINGS TO GO SOUTH –

OTHERS SAY THE OPPOSITE –

INCLUDING THE CHIEF ECONOMIST OF GOLDMAN SACHS –

SAYING EARLIER THIS YEAR THE U.S. “IS NOWHERE NEAR A RECESSION” –

AND HASN’T BEEN.

AS MIT PROFESSOR PAUL SAMUELSON SAID IN 1982 – WHCIH CAN STILL BE APPLIED TODAY –

“THE STOCK MARKET HAS PREDICTED NINE OUT OF THE LAST FIVE RECESSIONS.”

IT’S A GAME OF PREDICTION THAT ECONOMISTS PLAY.

AND ONE THEY OFTEN GET WRONG..

WHILE THE DATA SHOWS THE U.S. ECONOMY IS NOT IN A RECESSION –

A HARRIS POLL OUT THIS SUMMER FOUND THE **MAJORITY OF AMERICANS –

BELIEVE THE U.S. IS ALREADY IN ONE.

AND IF THIS ONE STRATEGIST WITH BCA RESEARCH HAPPENS TO BE RIGHT ABOUT A RECESSION AT THE END OF 2024 OR START OF 2025 IS RIGHT –

THEN VOTERS WILL SOON BE DECIDING THE PRESIDENT THEY WANT TO LEAD THE COUNTRY THROUGH IT.

WE TOLD YOU ABOUT THE JUNE JOBS REPORT OUT THIS FRIDAY.

BE SURE TO DOWNLOAD THE STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS APP AND SIGN UP FOR NEWS ALERTS SO YOU CAN GET A BREAKDOWN OF WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US ABOUT THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY.

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