How you can be so sure you’re right when you’re actually wrong

Oct 10

Craig Nigrelli Anchor

By Craig Nigrelli (Anchor), Shea Taylor (Producer), Jack Henry (Video Editor), Ali Caldwell (Motion Graphic Designer)

You know that feeling when you’re in a debate with someone and you make a point, and you just know you’re right – only to find out that self-assuredness was misplaced and you’re actually just very wrong? It turns out, there’s a scientific reason people can be so confidently wrong.

A newly published study shows it boils down to you thinking you have all the information you need to form an opinion when you really don’t.

“Our brains are overconfident that they can arrive at a reasonable conclusion with very little information,” explained one of the study’s co-authors, Angus Fletcher, an English professor at Ohio State University.

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The researchers wanted to know how people make judgements about situations or other people based on their confidence in the information they have, even if they don’t have all the information they may need. So, researchers rounded up 1,300 people and had them read a fictitious story.

Of the 1,300 people, 500 were given a version that was biased in favor of a certain point of view, another 500 were given one biased against that view, and 300 were given a balanced article.

The fake story was about a school that was running out of water because its local aquifer was drying up, so a merger with another school was being considered.

Once the participants read the story, researchers asked their opinions on what the school should do and how confident they were that they had all the information they needed to make that judgment.

They found a majority of the people were more likely to agree with the bias of argument they’d read and were often confident they had enough information to make that decision.

But then, the researchers had half the people from each group also read the other group’s version of the story. Researchers found once people had all the facts, they were more likely to change their mind.

They also found those who only read one, biased version of the article were more confident in their opinions than those who read both articles.

Tags: Media Bias, Ohio State, Science, Unbiased News

YOU KNOW THAT FEELING WHEN YOU’RE IN A DEBATE WITH SOMEONE AND YOU MAKE A POINT AND YOU JUST **KNOW** YOU’RE RIGHT – ONLY TO FIND OUT THAT SELF-ASSUREDNESS WAS MISPLACED AND YOU’RE ACTUALLY JUST VERY WRONG?

TURNS OUT – THERE’S A SCIENTIFIC REASON PEOPLE CAN BE SO CONFIDENTLY WRONG.

A NEWLY PUBLISHED STUDY SHOWS IT BOILS DOWN TO YOU THINKING YOU HAVE ALL THE INFORMATION YOU NEED TO FORM AN OPINION – WHEN YOU REALLY DON’T.

ONE OF THE STUDY’S AUTHORS PUT IT THIS WAY QUOTE “OUR BRAINS ARE OVERCONFIDENT THAT THEY CAN ARRIVE AT A REASONABLE CONCLUSION WITH VERY LITTLE INFORMATION.”

THE RESEARCHERS WITH OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY WANTED TO KNOW HOW PEOPLE MAKE JUDGEMENTS ABOUT SITUATIONS OR OTHER PEOPLE BASED ON THEIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INFORMATION THEY HAVE – EVEN IF THEY DON’T HAVE ALL THE INFORMATION THEY MAY NEED.

SO, THEY ROUNDED UP 13-HUNDRED PEOPLE AND HAD THEM READ A FICTITIOUS STORY.

500 WERE GIVEN A VERSION THAT WAS BIASED IN FAVOR OF A CERTAIN POINT OF VIEW…

ANOTHER 500 WERE GIVEN ONE BIASED **AGAINST** THAT VIEW…

AND 300 WERE GIVEN A BALANCED ARTICLE.

THE FAKE STORY WAS ABOUT A SCHOOL THAT WAS RUNNING OUT OF WATER BECAUSE ITS LOCAL AQUIFER WAS DRYING UP – SO A MERGER WITH ANOTHER SCHOOL WAS BEING CONSIDERED.

ONCE THEY’D READY THE STORY – RESEARCHERS ASKED THEIR OPINIONS ON WHAT THE SCHOOL SHOULD DO AND HOW CONFIDENT THEY WERE THAT THEY HAD ALL THE INFORMATION THEY NEEDED TO MAKE THAT JUDGMENT.

THEY FOUND A MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE WERE MORE LIKELY TO AGREE WITH THE BIAS OF ARGUMENT THEY’D READ – AND WERE OFTEN CONFIDENT THEY HAD ENOUGH INFORMATION TO MAKE THAT DECISION.

BUT THEN – THE RESEARCHERS HAD HALF THE PEOPLE FROM EACH GROUP **ALSO** READ THE OTHER GROUP’S VERSION OF THE STORY.

TURNS OUT – WHEN THEY HAD ALL THE FACTS, THEY WERE MORE LIKELY TO CHANGE THEIR MIND.

RESEARCHERS ALSO FOUND THOSE WHO ONLY READ ONE, BIASED VERSION OF THE ARTICLE WERE MORE CONFIDENT IN THEIR OPINIONS THAN THOSE WHO’D READ BOTH ARTICLES.

THIS IS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF WHY WE HERE AT STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS WORK SO HARD TO GIVE YOU **ALL** THE UNBIASED FACTS ABOUT EVERY STORY WE COVER.