President Biden may be a lame-duck president, but Ukraine is hoping he can fly lots of weapons and aid to the country before it’s time to hand power over to President-elect Donald Trump. Earlier this year, after extensive negotiations, the U.S. Congress approved a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine.
However, at least half of that money went to U.S. companies to replace or replenish weapons and supplies already sent. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, only about 10% of the promised aid has reached Ukraine — far from ideal when trying to win a war.
Zelenskyy explained his frustration in October in Iceland to a group of reporters when he said, “You do your job. You count on reserves, you count on special brigades, you count on such equipment. And if you’ve got 10% of all the package that has been even voted on already, you know? It’s not funny.”
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This issue of overpromising and under delivering isn’t unique to the United States. European nations are falling short in delivering pledged support too.
With the European Union, a promise of delivering 1 million rounds of 155mm ammunition led to only 300,000 actually reaching Ukraine last year.
Hanna Shelest, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and an expert in transatlantic defense, highlighted how such inconsistency makes it challenging for Ukraine to plan military operations.
“It is very difficult to plan your operation when you don’t understand your resources and capabilities. Will you have a 1:10 superiority of Russians in ammunition? Or 1:2 or 1:1?
The same with air defense. If you have only one Patriot system, you’re protecting Kyiv and are more cautious with operations in the south. But if you know you can cover critical infrastructure, you can redeploy mobile brigades to the front lines.”
Hanna Shelest
After congratulating Trump on his victory with a phone call, President Biden focused on accelerating the last of the approved $9 billion in aid to Ukraine before year’s end. There is a strong likelihood that, come January, a second Trump administration may scale back or halt military aid to Ukraine based on the campaign’s rhetoric.
Trump said he could end the war in a day if elected.
“Ukrainians are the first ones who would like this war to finish in 24 hours,” Shelest said. “Unfortunately, as of now, that is possible only under two conditions. Either Ukraine totally surrenders and stops existing as a nation, or Russia just decides to stop this illegal invasion and leaves Ukraine.”
All other variants, according to Shelest, would not end in 24 hours.
Assuming the war will not be over by Jan. 22, 2025, Shelest noted Trump’s unpredictable nature might be beneficial when dealing with a despot like Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“I really would like to see when this first call with Mr. Putin would happen, and what would be the mood after this. Because we have two scenarios: either [Trump] would really trust Mr. Putin and his KGB promises, and would be under the [impression] that he really can push Ukraine just to stop fighting for our existence.
Or Mr. Putin will act as usual, as a KGB guy who likes to offend his vis-a-vis. And knowing the hot temperature of Mr. Trump and how personally he takes such things, [Trump could] decide ‘No, these guys are not [who] I would like to trust. I need quick success. To give quick success, I need a Ukrainian victory. Or least some significant changes at the battlefield.’”
Hanna Shelest
Shelest said looking around the world at current conflicts shows only the war in Ukrainian can result in a quick battlefield victory, if Ukraine is supplied properly.
“Middle East? Definitely not. We understand the complexity of the situation,” Shelest said. “China-Taiwan? Definitely the U.S. is not ready for this battle. So, we are the only one where [President Trump] can demonstrate that he’s stronger than President Biden.”
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Should Trump halt U.S. aid, Shelest warned Europe currently lacks the resources to keep Kyiv in the fight. France’s monthly artillery production, for example, matches what Kyiv uses in a single day against Russia. Although some companies are building weapons factories in Ukraine and ramping up production, it will take time to see meaningful increases. And time is not on Ukraine’s side.
Reuters contributed to this report.
[Ryan Robertson]
PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN’S A LAME DUCK PRESIDENT. UKRAINE HOPES THAT DUCK CAN FLY THEM A LOT OF WEAPONS BEFORE IT’S TIME TO LEAVE THE COOP.
EARLIER THIS YEAR, AFTER MONTHS OF NEGOTIATIONS, THE U.S. CONGRESS APPROVED A $60 BILLION AID PACKAGE FOR UKRAINE. BUT MOST OF THAT MONEY ACTUALLY WENT TO U.S. COMPANIES TO REPLACE WHAT WAS ALREADY SENT. TO DATE, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY SAYS ONLY ABOUT 10% OF THAT PROMISED AID MADE IT TO UKRAINE. NOT EXACTLY WHAT YOU WANT WHEN YOU’RE TRYING TO WIN A WAR.
Zelenskyy: You do your job. You count on reserves, you count on special brigades, you count on such equipment. And if you’ve got 10% of all the package that has been even voted on already, you know? It’s not funny.
OVER PROMISING AND UNDER DELIVERING ISN’T JUST A PATTERN IN U.S. AID. THE EUROPEANS DO IT TOO.
Shelest: With the European Union, if you remember a year ago, they promised one million of the 155. The fact is by the end of the year, when they promised they could deliver, only 300,000.
HANNA SHELEST IS A SENIOR FELLOW FOR THE CENTER FOR EUROPEAN POLICY ANALYSIS. SHE’S AN EXPERT IN TRANSATLANTIC DEFENSE AND SECURITY.
Shelest: It is very difficult to plan your operation when you don’t understand your resources and capabilities. So, will you have the 1:10 superiority of Russians in ammunition? Or 1:2 or 1:1? The same with the air defense. If you have only one Patriot system, you’re protecting Kiev, and you are more careful with some operations in the South. But if you understand that you can cover your critical infrastructure, you can take those forces, for example, the mobile brigades from the South and move them to the frontline.
AFTER HE CALLED TO CONGRATULATE PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP ON HIS WIN, PRESIDENT BIDEN GOT TO WORK TO FIGURE OUT HOW HIS ADMINISTRATION COULD RUSH THE LAST OF ALL APPROVED AID, AROUND $9 BILLION, TO UKRAINE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR.
BECAUSE COME JANUARY, IT’S LIKELY THE SECOND TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WOULD BEGIN SCALING BACK, OR CUT OFF ALTOGETHER, THE FLOW OF WEAPONS AND AID TO KIEV. AT LEAST BASED ON THE CAMPAIGN’S RHETORIC. PRESIDENT TRUMP DID SAY HE COULD END THE WAR IN A DAY IF ELECTED.
Shelest: Ukrainians are the first ones who would like this war to finish in 24 hours. Unfortunately, as of now, that is possible only under two conditions. Either Ukraine totally surrenders and stops existing as a nation and then a country, or Russia just decides to stop this illegal invasion and leaves Ukraine. All other variants, unfortunatel,y do not envisage 24 hours.
ASSUMING THE WAR DOESN’T END IN A DAY, SHELEST SAYS TRUMP’S UNPREDICTABLE NATURE COULD A POSITIVE WHEN DEALING WITH A DESPOT LIKE PUTIN.
Shelest: I really would like to see when this first call with Mr. Putin would happen, and what would be the mood after this. Because we have two scenarios. Either he would really trust Mr. Putin and his KGB promises and would be under the, I don’t know, imagine that he really can push Ukraine just to stop fighting for our existence.
Or Mr. Putin will act as usual, as KGB guy who likes to offend his vis-a-vis. And knowing the hot temperature of Mr. Trump, how personally he’s taking such things, that he can decide ‘No, these guys are not that I would like to trust. I need quick success. To give quick success, I need a Ukrainian victory, or least some significant changes at the battlefield.’
Because if you look around the world, it’s only the Russian-Ukrainian war that you really can have quick success at the battlefield if you play correctly. Middle East, definitely not. We understand the complexity of the situation. China-Taiwan, definitely the U.S. is not ready for this battle. So, we are the only one where he can demonstrate that he’s stronger than President Biden.
IF PRESIDENT TRUMP STOPS U.S. WEAPONS AND AID TO UKRAINE, SHELEST SAYS RIGHT NOW THERE ISN’T ENOUGH SUPPORT COMING FROM EUROPE TO KEEP KIEV IN THE FIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF ARTILLERY FRANCE PRODUCES IN A MONTH IS WHAT KIEV USES EVERYDAY AGAINST RUSSIA.
THERE ARE COMPANIES BUILDING WEAPONS FACTORIES IN UKRAINE AND MANY ARE INCREASING THEIR PRODUCTION CAPACITY, BUT THAT TAKES TIME TO GET UP AND RUNNING. AND TIME IS NOT ON UKRAINE’S SIDE.
FOR STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS, I’M RYAN ROBERTSON. IF YOU WANT MORE UNBIASED, STRAIGHT FACT REPORTING LIKE THIS BE SURE TO CHECKOUT THE STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS APP TODAY, OR LOG ON TO SAN.COM
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