Iowa pollster Ann Selzer retires after major miss, Trump wants investigation

THE POLLSTER BEHIND THE DES MOINES REGISTER ELECTION POLL THAT HAD TRUMP LOSING TO HARRIS BY 3 PERCENTAGE POINTS IN IOWA –

IS NOW RETIRING.

THE POLL –

ENDED UP BEING OFF BY MORE THAN 16 PERCENTAGE POINTS –

BUT WHEN IT PUBLISHED IT STIRRED UP A LOT OF REACTION –

AND CONTROVERSY FOR TRUMP GIVEN SUCH A DRAMATIC LOSS PREDICTION IN DEEP RED IOWA.

SOME OF THE NEWS COVERAGE OF THE POLL SUGGESTED IT SERVED AS “A STUNNING WARNING FOR TRUMP”.

AND SUGGESTED IT “COULD SPELL TROUBLE” FOR HIM.

AS A RESULT OF THE “SURPRISE POLL” –

POLYMARKET BETS OF A TRUMP WIN DROPPED BY MORE THAN 10 PERCENTAGE POINTS –

AND TRUMP’S TRUTH SOCIAL STOCK FELL AFTER THE POLL WAS PUBLISHED.

ANN SELZER HAS BEEN THE LEAD POLLSTER FOR THE IOWA POLL SINCE 1997 –

DESPITE THIS LATEST MISS – THE POLL IS SEEN AS ONE OF THE MORE ACCURATE ONES –

CORRECTLY PREDICTING RESULTS IN FIVE OF THE NOW-SEVEN MOST RECENT PRESIDENTIAL RACES.

AND WHILE THE ANNOUNCEMENT FOLLOWS BLOWBACK FROM THE POLL’S RECENT MAJOR MISS –

SELZER SAYS SHE HAD MADE THE DECISION TO RETIRE FROM POLLING A YEAR AGO.

SELZER ADMITTED THE 2024 POLL WAS “A BIG MISS” –

BUT ALSO SAID THE POLL COULD HAVE ENERGIZED REPUBLICAN VOTERS IN THE STATE – LEADING TO TRUMP’S EASY IOWA CARRY.

BUT TRUMP HIMSELF –

WAS SKEPTICAL OF THE POLL FROM THE START –

AND IS NOW WANTING “AN INVESTIGATION”.

TRUMP POSTED TO TRUTH SOCIAL –

“A totally Fake poll that caused great distrust and uncertainty at a very critical time. She knew exactly what she was doing. Thank you to the GREAT PEOPLE OF IOWA for giving me such a record breaking vote, despite possible ELECTION FRAUD by Ann Selzer and the now discredited “newspaper” for which she works. An investigation is fully called for!”

IN HER FAREWELL COLUMN, SELZER ACKNOWLEDGED THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF POLLING, DESCRIBING IT AS A “SCIENCE OF ESTIMATION” THAT CAN SOMETIMES HUMBLE EVEN THE MOST EXPERIENCED POLLSTERS. 

SHE EMPHASIZED THE IMPORTANCE OF INTEGRITY IN HER WORK AND EXPRESSED A WILLINGNESS TO LEARN FROM THE UNEXPECTED RESULTS.

THE DES MOINES REGISTER ALSO ADDRESSED THE POLL’S INACCURACY, WITH ITS EXECUTIVE EDITOR SAYING THAT THE NEWSPAPER PLANS TO “REIMAGINE” HOW IT CONDUCTS POLLING IN THE FUTURE TO BETTER CAPTURE PUBLIC SENTIMENT AND IMPROVE ACCURACY. 

GANNETT MEDIA, WHICH OWNS THE REGISTER, SAYS ITS MISSION IS TO PROVIDE “TRUSTED NEWS AND CONTENT” –

AND SAYS THEY “DID NOT DELIVER ON THAT PROMISE” WHEN SHRING THE RESULTS OF THE IOWA POLL.

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