Presidential candidates look for path to 270 electoral votes

Nov 5

Ray Bogan Political Correspondent

By Ray Bogan (Political Correspondent )

Millions of Americans are heading to the polls Tuesday, Nov. 5, to elect the next president. While the candidates are hoping to be the more popular choice among voters, it’s the electoral votes they are seeking most.

There are multiple paths to victory for both candidates. And it’s all about reaching that number of 270.

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The seven battleground states that could go either way are Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona. They make up a combined 93 electoral votes.

Polling indicates the candidates are anywhere from less than 1% to about 2% apart in each of those states. That’s within the margin of error, meaning they could truly go either way.

But for purposes of this conversation, let’s have it play out exactly the way the FiveThirtyEight average of polls says it will.

Under that scenario, Trump wins with 287 electoral votes by taking Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Harris takes Michigan and Wisconsin.

The polling average shows Trump is less than a point ahead of Harris in Pennsylvania. If that goes blue and everything else stays the same, Harris wins 270 to 268. That’s how close this is.

This is a nail-biter.

If you like to place bets, it’s truly a tough call as to who to put your money on.

One thing we can safely say is, like the 11,000-vote difference in Michigan in 2016 and Georgia in 2020, the polls indicate some of these states will be decided by less than a percent, possibly even less than half of a percent.

So stay tuned.

Tags: 2024 Elections, Battleground state, Donald Trump, Early voting, Kamala Harris, Mail-in voting, Presidential Campaign, Swing State, Voting

(on cam)

[CRAIG NIGRELLI]

WHILE BOTH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES ARE HOPING TO BE THE MORE POPULAR CHOICE AMONG VOTERS – IT’S THE ELECTORAL VOTES THAT ARE KEY. OUR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT RAY BOGAN EXPLAINS WHAT IT TAKES TO REACH THAT MAGIC NUMBER OF 270.

[RAY BOGAN]

Good morning Craig, you are 100% right, 270 is the magic number and there are multiple paths to victory for both candidates.

The seven battleground states that could go either way are Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona. They make up a combined 93 electoral votes.

Polling indicates the candidates are anywhere from less than one percent, to about two-percentage points apart in each of those states.

That’s within the margin of error, meaning they could truly go either way. But for purposes of this conversation, let’s have it play out exactly the way the 538 average of polls says it will.

Under that scenario Trump wins with 287 electoral votes by taking Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

Harris takes Michigan and Wisconsin.

But take a look at this – the polling average shows Trump is less than a point ahead of Harris in Pennsylvania, if that goes blue and everything else stays the same, she wins 270 to 268. That’s how close this is. This is a nail biter.

If you like to place bets, it’s truly a tough call as to who to put your money on. One thing we can safely say is like the 11,000 vote difference in Michigan in 2016 and Georgia in 2020, the polls indicate some of these states will be decided by less than a percent, possibly even less than a half of a percent, so stay tuned. Craig.

[CRAIG]

RAY BOGAN REPORTING FROM WASHINGTON D.C. RAY WILL BE PROVIDING ELECTION COVERAGE ALL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON SAN DOT COM AND THE STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS APP.