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Putin signals cease-fire talks with Trump, sets strict conditions

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed willingness to discuss a cease-fire in Ukraine with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. However, Putin says this would need to be under specific and stringent conditions.

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His proposal includes freezing the conflict along the current front lines, allowing Russia to retain significant territory, including Crimea and large portions of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

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These areas account for nearly 20% of Ukraine’s territory, an expanse roughly equivalent to the size of Virginia. The territory also includes critical land routes to Crimea.

Putin ruled out returning Crimea or making any major territorial concessions and insisted Ukraine abandon its ambitions to join NATO.

The Kremlin’s conditions reportedly include limits on Ukraine’s military size and assurances to protect the use of the Russian language. While Moscow is open to offering security guarantees for Ukraine, it insists on the complete absence of NATO forces or influence within the country.

The Kremlin’s stance reflects its broader objective of solidifying territorial gains while countering what it perceives as NATO’s encroachment. Putin has characterized the conflict as a pivotal moment in resisting Western influence in regions Moscow considers part of its sphere of control. However, NATO has emphasized that its members join voluntarily.

Potential negotiations could resemble a 2022 draft agreement discussed during the Istanbul talks. Those talks proposed Ukrainian neutrality in exchange for international security guarantees from U.N. Security Council members.

However, Kyiv remains steadfast in its demand for full territorial sovereignty, including the return of Crimea.

Reports from the front lines indicate that fighting has intensified. Russian forces have made their fastest advances since the early days of the war, further complicating the prospect of a cease-fire. The Kremlin has stated that if no agreement is reached, military operations will continue.

Putin retains decisive control over any potential negotiations, reflecting the centralized decision-making within the Kremlin. While a temporary truce may be achievable, analysts widely agree a comprehensive peace agreement addressing both sides’ security concerns remains unlikely.

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[ryan robertson]

RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN SAYS HE’S OPEN TO DISCUSSING A CEASEFIRE IN UKRAINE WITH PRESIDENT ELECT DONALD TRUMP, BUT ONLY UNDER STRICT CONDITIONS.

PUTIN’S PROPOSAL WOULD FREEZE THE CONFLICT ALONG CURRENT FRONT LINES, ALLOWING RUSSIA TO HOLD ONTO SIGNIFICANT TERRITORY, INCLUDING CRIMEA AND LARGE PARTS OF DONETSK, LUHANSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, AND KHERSON REGIONS. ALTOGETHER, IT’S AN AREA ABOUT THE SIZE OF VIRGINIA, AND MAKES UP CLOSE TO 20% OF UKRAINE’S TERRITORY. THE AREA ALSO INCLUDES VITAL LAND ROUTES TO CRIMEA. HOWEVER, PUTIN RULED OUT RETURNING CRIMEA OR MAKING MAJOR TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS. OH, AND HE’S ALSO DEMANDING UKRAINE ABANDON ITS NATO AMBITIONS.

RUSSIA’S TERMS REPORTEDLY INCLUDE LIMITS ON UKRAINE’S MILITARY SIZE AND GUARANTEES TO PROTECT THE USE OF THE RUSSIAN LANGUAGE. WHILE MOSCOW SAYS IT’S WILLING TO OFFER SECURITY GUARANTEES TO UKRAINE, IT INSISTS NATO MUST STAY OUT OF THE COUNTRY ENTIRELY.

THE KREMLIN’S POSITION REFLECTS ITS BROADER GOAL OF SECURING TERRITORIAL GAINS AND COUNTERING WHAT IT SEES AS NATO’S ENCROACHMENT–EVEN THOUGH NATO MEMBERS JOIN THE ALLIANCE VOLUNTARILY. PUTIN FRAMED THE CONFLICT AS A TURNING POINT IN RESISTING WESTERN INFLUENCE IN RUSSIA’S SPHERE OF CONTROL.

THE POTENTIAL TALKS COULD RESEMBLE A 2022 DRAFT AGREEMENT DISCUSSED DURING THE ISTANBUL NEGOTIATIONS. THAT PLAN SUGGESTED UKRAINIAN NEUTRALITY IN EXCHANGE FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY GUARANTEES FROM U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL MEMBERS. BUT KYIV REMIANS FIRM, DEMANDING FULL TERRITORIAL SOVEREIGNTY, INCLUDING THE RETURN OF CRIMEA.

ALL OF THIS ISN’T HAPPENING IN A VACCUUM. REPORTS FROM THE FRONTLINES SHOW THE FIGHTING IS GROWING MORE INTENSE. RUSSIA ADVANCED MORE RAPIDLY THIS YEAR THAN AT ANY POINT SINCE THE EARLY DAYS OF THE WAR.
THE KREMLIN SAYS IT WILL CONTINUE MILITARY OPERATIONS IF NO CEASEFIRE IS REACHED. WITH PUTIN HOLDING DECISIVE CONTROL OVER ANY NEGOTIATIONS, A TEMPORARY TRUCE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER MOST ANALYSTS AGREE A LONG-TERM PEACE DEAL REMAINS UNLIKELY.

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