Understanding the complex US-China relationship

[RYAN ROBERTSON] THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA. THE ULTIMATE “IT’S COMPLICATED” FACEBOOK RELATIONSHIP STATUS.

OUR ECONOMIES ARE INTERTWINED AND INTERDEPENDENT TO AN ALARMING DEGREE. ACCORDING TO A REPORT FROM THE GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE, NEARLY A THIRD OF FOREIGN STUDENTS AND SCHOLARS IN THE U.S. ARE FROM CHINA. WITH SOME OF THEM INVOLVED IN DEVELOPING DEFENSE-RELATED TECHNOLOGIES.

IF YOU KEEP THE VIEW NARROW ENOUGH, IT MIGHT LOOK LIKE THE TWO COUNTRIES ARE ALLIES. BUT WIDEN THAT FIELD OF VISION, AND A MUCH MORE COMPLICATED PICTURE BEGINS TO EMERGE.

IF YOU WANT TO KNOW HOW THE U.S. VIEWS THE THREAT THAT CHINA POSES TO THE U.S. AND ITS INTERESTS, JUST INVITE SECRETARY OF THE AIR FORCE, MR. FRANK KENDALL, TO BE YOUR KEYNOTE SPEAKER.

[FRANK KENDALL] I REALIZED IMMEDIATELY CHINA WAS AGGRESSIVELY PREPARING TO DEFEAT AMERICA’S ABILITY TO PROJECT POWER IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC.

I’VE BEEN TALKING SINCE 2010 ABOUT THE THREAT THAT CHINA POSES IN PARTICULAR AND WHAT THEIR MILITARY MODERNIZATION MEANS FOR OUR ABILITY TO PROJECT POWER.

CHINA IS NOT A FUTURE THREAT. CHINA IS A THREAT TODAY.

[RYAN ROBERTSON] WITH THAT IN MIND, IT SHOULD BE NO SURPRISE THAT SOME OF THE MOST KNOWLEDGEABLE AND INFORMED MINDS ON THE CHINA THREAT WERE ASKED BY THE AIR FORCE ASSOCIATION TO SIT ON A PANEL AT AIR, SPACE, CYBER 2024 TITLED ‘THE CHINA PROBLEM.’

WHILE EACH BROUGHT THEIR OWN THOUGHTS TO THE TABLE, THERE IS NO DOUBT A CONSENSUS ABOUT WHERE THE U.S. IS AND WHERE IT NEEDS TO BE. ACCORDING TO BRENDAN MULVANEY, DIRECTOR OF THE CHINA AEROSPACE STUDIES INSTITUTE AT THE NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY, PART OF THE CHALLENGE IS UNDERSTANDING THE OPPOSITION.

[BRENDAN MULVANEY] THEY’RE NOT APPROACHING THESE THINGS AS UNITED STATES MILITARY WOULD, AND THEY ARE SIMPLY TRYING TO KEEP US OUT LONG ENOUGH TO ACCOMPLISH WHATEVER THAT IS. AND THAT MEANS, HEY, I DON’T CARE IF I CAN’T BEAT AN F-35 IF THE F-35S NEVER GET THERE. SO THEY HAVE ANTI ACCESS. AERIAL DENIAL IS WHAT WE LIKE TO CALL IT. THE CHINESE CALL IT COUNTER INTERVENTION, PUSHING THE AIR FORCE, PUSHING THE NAVY, PUSHING OUR ALLIES AND PARTNERS OUT LONG ENOUGH SO THAT MEANS LONGER RANGE AIR TO AIR MISSILES, LONGER RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES THAT WILL ATTACK AIRCRAFT CARRIERS OR TANKERS OR ALL THE THINGS THAT WE NEED TO ENABLE OUR BETTER AIRCRAFT TO GET IN. THEY JUST SIMPLY WANT TO KEEP THEM OUT, AND THAT’S WHERE THEY THINK THEY PROBABLY MADE THE BIGGEST STRIDES OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS.

[RYAN ROBERTSON] WHILE MANY EYES ARE FOCUSED ON TAIWAN AS A LIKELY TIPPING POINT, DR. KEVIN POLLPETER, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH AT THE CHINA AEROSPACE STUDIES INSTITUTE AT AIR UNIVERSITY SAYS SPACE IS THE DOMAIN THAT CONCERNS HIM WHEN TRYING TO PLOT OUT WHAT THE CHINESE MIGHT DO. ACCORDING TO THE DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY, CHINA DOUBLED ITS NUMBER OF SATELLITES IN ORBIT BETWEEN 2019 AND 2021, FROM 250 TO 499.

[KEVIN POLLPETER] BECAUSE OF CHINA’S ACTIVE DEFENSE STRATEGY, WHICH IS VERY OFFENSIVE, EVEN MAYBE, YOU KNOW, ADVOCATES PREEMPTIVE STRIKES, AND THEN YOU COUPLE THAT WITH THE WAY, WITH HOW THEY SEE THE IMPORTANCE OF SPACE, THAT CHINA COULD STRIKE US FIRST IN SPACE, AND THAT ANY SORT OF CONFLICT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA WOULD BEGIN UP IN SPACE.

[RYAN ROBERTSON] ANOTHER CONCERN, MISCOMMUNICATION. WAYNE ULMAN, THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICER FOR EAST ASIA, CAUTIONS THAT AN INABILITY TO READ EACH OTHER’S SIGNALS COULD BE THE THING THAT SPARKS A CONFRONTATION.

[WAYNE ULMAN] WE’RE NOT GOOD AT READING THEIR SIGNALS. THEY’RE NOT PARTICULARLY GOOD AT READING OUR SIGNALS. SO THERE’S A LOT OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR SORT OF MISUNDERSTANDING THAT CAN HAPPEN HERE, AND SO ACCIDENTALLY FINDING OURSELVES IN A FIGHT IS PROBABLY THE BIGGER THING THAN SOME SORT OF DELIBERATE, OH, WE’RE GOING TO INSTITUTE A SIX MONTH PLAN THAT GETS US TO COMBAT.

[RYAN ROBERTSON] OF COURSE, FOR ALL THAT’S NEW, THERE ARE TRIED AND TRUE METHODS THAT CHINA HAS USED AGAINST THE U.S. AND WILL CONTINUE TO USE AGAINST THE U.S. NAMELY CYBER WARFARE. ACCORDING TO THE CYBERSECURITY AND INFRASTRUCTURE SECURITY AGENCY, CHINA “REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE AND PERSISTENT CYBER THREAT TO U.S. GOVERNMENT, PRIVATE-SECTOR, AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORKS.”

[WAYNE ULMAN] THE WAY THE CHINESE THINK ABOUT WARFARE IS THAT SORT OF INFORMATION, YOUR ABILITY TO MANAGE THAT THAT’S SORT OF LIKE THE KEY THING. YOU’VE GOT TO DO IT BETTER THAN THE ADVERSARY. YOU’VE GOT TO DEFEAT THE ADVERSARY. SO THE TWO OTHER PIECES OF THAT, ONE OF THEM BEING ELECTRONIC WARFARE, WHICH IS A PASSION OF MIKE AND MINE GOING WAY BACK. AND THEN THE OTHER ONE, OF COURSE, IS CYBER. SO INVESTED VERY HEAVILY IN BOTH OF THOSE DOMAINS, AND THEY’RE GOING TO PRESENT REAL CHALLENGES.

[RYAN ROBERTSON] THEN, THERE ARE THE MORE TRADITIONAL MEANS OF WAR. ACCORDING TO MULVANEY, SINCE TAKING HIS POSITION IN 2012 XI JINPING HAS INCREASED THE SIZE OF CHINA’S ROCKET FORCE BY 33%. BY MULVANEY’S COUNT CHINA HAS LOTS OF MEDIUM-RANGE, LOTS OF INTERCONTINENTAL, AND LOTS OF SHORT-RANGE MISSILES ACROSS THE BOARD, INTENTIONALLY INTERMINGLED, NUCLEAR, NON-NUCLEAR.

[BRENDAN MULVANEY] YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT PULLING YOUR HAIR OUT THINKING ABOUT DETERRENCE. THAT’S WHAT SHOULD KEEP YOU UP AT NIGHT. WHAT IS HE GOING TO USE THAT FOR? WHAT IS THE RESPONSE TO THE PRESIDENT WHEN YOU SEE SOME MISSILES COMING OVER? THERE’S NOT MANY, AND YOU KNOW, THEY MAY NOT BE NUCLEAR, BUT THEY MIGHT BE. I DON’T WANT TO BE IN THAT POSITION.