Will Democrats or Republicans win control of the Senate?

On midterm election night, the most important questions include which party will come out with a majority in the House and Senate. Polling indicates neither party is likely to walk away with a big margin in the Senate. Here’s why.

The most important races are:

• Georgia: Sen. Raphael Warnock*, D v. Herschel Walker, R
• Pennsylvania: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, D v. Dr. Mehmet Oz, R
• Ohio: J.D. Vance, R v. Rep. Tim Ryan, R
• Arizona: Sen. Mark Kelly*, D v. Blake Masters, R
• Nevada: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto*, D v. Attorney General Adam Laxalt, R
• Florida: Sen. Marco Rubio, R* v. Rep. Val Demings, D

Democrats currently have a 50-50 majority in the Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris acting as the tie-breaking vote.

If Republicans or Democrats won every single race listed above, the winner would have a 53-47 majority. That’s far from a filibuster-proof majority. If Republicans and Democrats flip each one of the seats listed above, we’d be right back at where we started: a 50-50 split with VP Harris breaking the tie.

Moral of the story: Even with success at the polls, neither party has a strong probability of walking out with a large lead.