Will Trump really lower your grocery bill? Most Americans doubt it

Donald Trump: I won on groceries. It’s a very simple word, groceries. I won an election based on that. We’re going to bring those prices way down.

Simone Del Rosario: A simple word and a simple promise. But days before President-elect Donald Trump takes the oath of office, most Americans are skeptical he can deliver. 

More than 3 in 5 Americans are slightly or not at all confident Trump will lower the cost of food, housing or health care in 2025, according to the latest AP-NORC poll. 

Republicans expressed greater confidence in Trump than Democrats or independents. Still, less than half of them have high confidence in his ability to lower costs in those categories. Only one-third of Republicans have high confidence he will lower health care costs, while 44% believe grocery prices will go down.

Four days after this NBC interview aired, TIME published Trump’s Person of the Year interview. In that, he noted how difficult it would be to fulfill his grocery price promise.

“I’d like to bring them down. It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up. You know, it’s very hard,” he said. “But I think that they will. I think that energy is going to bring them down. I think a better supply chain is going to bring them down.”

This week, Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, fielded questions from Senate Democrats and Republicans about consumer prices.

Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-NH: Under President-elect Trump‘s policies, do you believe the prices for families will go up or down?

Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary nominee: I believe that inflation will be much closer to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

Simone Del Rosario: Lowering inflation and lowering prices are two different targets. Lowering inflation would slow the increase in prices. Lowering prices would result in deflation, when the inflation rate falls below 0%. 

In 2024, consumer prices rose 2.9% on the year. That’s according to December data released this week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now the rate of inflation is on the rise. It went up three months in a row to end the year after bottoming out at 2.4% in September. 

December’s surge was fueled by higher food and energy costs. The energy index rose 2.6% on the month. Food prices went up 0.3% on the month and 2.5% on the year. Food prices are up about 28% over the past five years. For SAN, I’m SDR.