With 15M ballots cast, is early voting favoring Harris or Trump?

TWO WEEKS OUT FROM ELECTION DAY –

AND ALREADY MORE THAN 15 MILLION PEOPLE HAVE CAST THEIR BALLOT.

SO IS THERE A WAY TO KNOW WHICH WAY EARLY VOTERS ARE LEANING?

IS EARLY VOTING FAVORING HARRIS OR TRUMP?

THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION –

ISN’T SO CLEAR IN THE HEADLINES.

“Early-voting surge seen as advantage for Harris campaign”

“Nevada Early Voting Could Signal ‘Serious Danger’ for Kamala Harris”

“Harris leads Trump 2-1 among the earliest voters, many driven by abortion access”

“Republicans Eat Into Democrats’ Early Voting Advantage”

HERE’S WHAT WE KNOW.

23 STATES REPORT EARLY VOTING FIGURES **WITH VOTERS’ PARTY AFFILIATION.

THIS GIVES US AN IDEA OF WHETHER MORE DEMOCRATS OR REPUBLICANS ARE VOTING EARLY.

HISTORICALLY – THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY SHOWS UP EARLY IN LARGER NUMBERS.

AND TRADITIONALLY – THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HAS A LARGER TURNOUT ON ELECTION DAY.

RIGHT NOW – EARLY VOTING FIGURES ARE SHATTERING RECORDS STATE BY STATE.

INCLUDING IN BATTLEGROUND TERRITORY.

HERE’S A LOOK AT SOME OF THE EARLY VOTING DATA AS OF MONDAY.

NATIONALLY –

46% OF EARLY VOTES WERE CAST BY REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.

36 PERCENT OF EARLY VOTES WERE CAST BY REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.

18% ARE UNAFFILIATED WITH A POLITICAL PARTY.

IN PENNSYLVANIA – A SWING STATE –

DEMOCRATS HAVE OUTVOTED REPUBLICANS AT A NEAR 3 TO 1 MARGIN. 

64% OF VOTES WERE CAST BY DEMOCRATS COMPARED TO 27% BY REPUBLICANS.

9 PERCENT OF VOTES CAME FROM VOTERS WITH NO PARTY AFFILIATION.

IN NEVADA – THE PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE IS RAZOR THIN.

8 THOUSAND MORE VOTES HAVE BEEN CAST BY REPUBLICANS COMPARED TO DEMOCRATS.

39.4 PERCENT OF THE VOTES CAST WERE BY REPUBLICANS.

36.2 PERCENT WERE BY DEMOCRATS.

24.2 PERCENT WERE UNAFFILIATED.

IN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MORE THAN 1 MILLION VOTES HAVE BEEN CAST –

DEMOCRATS HAVE THE EDGE.

36 TO 33 PERCENT. 

31 PERCENT OF VOTERS WERE UNAFFILIATED.

AND IN ARIZONA –

REPUBLICANS LEAD DEMOCRATS – 44 TO 36 PERCENT. WITH 21 PERCENT UNAFFILIATED.

THREE BATTLEGROUND STATES ARE AMONG THOSE THAT DON’T BREAK DOWN EARLY VOTING RESULTS BY POLITICAL AFFILIATION.

GEORGIA. MICHIGAN. AND WISCONSIN.

SOME DATA COLLECTION GROUPS LIKE “TARGET SMART” PREDICT PARTY AFFILIATION OF VOTERS BASED ON WHAT THEY CALL “INTERNAL MODELING”.

THIS TAKES DEMOGRAPHICS AND PRIOR VOTING HISTORY INTO CONSIDERATION.

THEIR PREDICTIONS HAVE REPUBLICANS WITH A SLIGHT LEAD IN GEORGIA.

AND DEMOCRATS LEADING IN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN.

SINCE ONLY 23 STATES PROVIDE THE PARTY AFFILIATION OF EARLY VOTERS –

THAT LEAVES US WITH AN INCOMPLETE PICTURE OF WHETHER ITS HARRIS OR TRUMP VOTERS TURNING UP IN DROVES.

BUT A USA TODAY SURVEY FOUND THAT MORE EARLY VOTERS ACROSS THE U.S. ARE CASTING THEIR BALLOT FOR HARRIS – LEADING TRUMP 63 TO 34 PERCENT.

THAT’S A MUCH LARGER HARRIS-ADVANTAGE COMPARED TO THE 46-36 LEAD IN THE STATES WHERE PARTY AFFILIATION OF VOTERS IS MADE AVAILABLE.

WHEN IT COMES TO THOSE WHO PLAN TO VOTE ON ELECTION DAY – 63% SAY THEY PLAN TO VOTE FOR TRUMP WHILE 34% PLAN TO VOTE FOR HARRIS.

COMBINING THE TWO – THE POLL FOUND HARRIS WITH A ONE POINT LEAD OVER TRUMP. (45-44)

MAKING IT STILL – A COIN TOSS CONTEST.

WHILE ELECTION DAY IS TWO WEEKS AWAY –

THAT DOESN’T NECESSARILY MEAN WE’LL FIND OUT WHO WON IN 14 DAYS.

THE DIRECTOR OF THE FOX NEWS “DECISION DESK” BELIEVES THE RACE WON’T BE CALLED UNTIL THE SATURDAY AFTER ELECTION DAY –

WHICH IS WHEN THE 2020 ELECTION WAS OFFICIALLY CALLED.

HEY THANKS FOR WATCHING OUR NEWS UPDATE.

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FOR STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS – I’M KARAH RUCKER.