‘World turned upside down’: Pollsters react to Trump win

[Karah]

AFTER AN ALL-CONSUMING ELECTION CYCLE –

WE FINALLY KNOW WHO WILL BE THE 47TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.

From polling models to expert predictions, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump was CONSIDERED A TOSS UP RIGHT TO THE END.

BUT AS VOTES BEGAN TO BE COUNTED –

SOME WELL-RENOWNED POLLSTERS TOOK A U-TURN ON THEIR PREDICTIONS.

NATE SILVER IS ONE OF THE MOST WELL-KNOWN NAMES IN ELECTION FORECASTING.

HE had a lot riding on his FiveThirtyEight POLLING model which showed harris with THE ADVANTAGE THROUGH MOST OF ELECTION NIGHT.

AT 10:30 PM HE ABANDONED HIS POLL – 

SILVER POSTED ON SUBSTACK HIS MODEL WAS “NOT CAPTURING THE STORY OF THE ELECTION”.

HOWEVER In the final days LEADING UP TO the election –

Silver said THE POLLS SHOWED HARRIS WITH THE MOMENTUM –

BUT  his **gut told him Trump would likely win.

He DID predict there would be “a high chance of a clean sweep” on election night –

With one candidate winning every swing state.

And AS OF THIS RECORDING  –

Trump has won 4 of the 7 swing states that have been called –

And leads in the other 3 swing states where votes are still being counted.

ALLAN LICHTMAN IS –

OFTEN REFERRED TO AS “THE NOSTRADAMUS OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS” –

SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTING THE LAST 9 OF 10 PRESIDENTS.

UNLIKE OTHER MODELS– LICHTMAN MAKES PREDICTIONS OFF OF HISTORICAL TRENDS – AND DOESN’T DEAL IN PERCENTAGES.

HE PREDICTED A WIN FOR HARRIS.

LICHTMAN SAID THAT WAS BASED ON WHAT HE DESCRIBED AS A STRONG ECONOMY 

AND THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATE THAT HE SAID WOULD FACTOR IN THE DEMOCRAT’S FAVOR.

“That’s why my prediction system, with a 40 plus year track record predicts kamala harris will be a new path-breaking president, the first woman president, and the first president of mixed african and asian descent.” 

BUT ON ELECTION NIGHT – DURING A LIVESTREAM OF RESULTS –

LICHTMAN’S TUNE CHANGED. CASTING DOUBT ON HIS OWN PREDICTION.

“Trump is winning 51% of hispanic vote in pennsylvania.

“What!”

“that’s what cnn is showing right now.”

“That’s not possible. The world has turned upside down is all i can say is that better.” 

UP TO THE EVE OF THE ELECTION –

THERE WAS ONE POLLSTER CREATING ALL THE BUZZ.

ANN SELZER –

WHO BOLDLY PREDICTED DEEP RED IOWA WOULD GO TO KAMALA HARRIS –

SAYING HARRIS WOULD BEAT TRUMP BY 3 POINTS.

ON ELECTION NIGHT – TRUMP CARRIED THE STATE WITH ABOUT A 13 PERCENT MARGIN.

THAT POLL – THE FORMER PRESIDENT MOCKED ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL.

“The polls are just as corrupt as some of the writers back there. They can make them say, they brag about it, i got a poll i’m 10 points up in iowa, one of my enemies puts out i’m three points down.”

“A fake poll, hey think of it, right before an election, i’m three points down. I’m not down in iowa.”

SELZER TOLD THE DES MOINES REGISTER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT –

The poll findings we produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom did not match what the Iowa electorate ultimately decided in the voting booth today.

I’ll be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that happened. And, I welcome what that process might teach me.

WHEN IT COMES TO TRUMP –

HIS BASE HAS STUMPED POLLSTERS OVER THE PAST THREE ELECTION CYCLES.

HAVING SOME POLLSTERS – QUESTIONING THEIR TECHNIQUES IN HOW TO CAPTURE TRUMP’S SUPPORT.

“The issue is they don’t trust polls especially when they come from media companies, so they’re not getting on the phone in the first place.” 

“But those people are hard to reach. If you do manage to get through to them, they might just not take the survey.”

WHILE POLLING MODELS CAN OFFER A SNAPSHOT OF VOTER SENTIMENT –

THIS ELECTION CYCLE PROVES YET AGAIN –

PREDICTING ELECTION OUTCOMES IS STILL AN INEXACT SCIENCE.

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