Young voter trends troubling for Biden, Trump’s strongest base is Gen Z: Poll

ONE YEAR AWAY FROM THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION –

AND YOUNG VOTERS COULD BE THE DEMOGRAPHIC TO DETERMINE WHO WINS.

THE CURRENT TRENDS OF HOW YOUNG PEOPLE VIEW PRESIDENT BIDEN AND FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP LOOK A LOT DIFFERENT THAN THEY DID IN 20-20.

PRESIDENT BIDEN’S SUPPORT AMONG VOTERS UNDER 30 HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DROPPED IN THE MOST RECENT EMERSON COLLEGE POLL.

IN 20-20 –

BIDEN RECEIVED 59 PERCENT OF THE VOTE FROM PEOPLE UNDER THE AGE OF 30.

BUT WHEN ASKED HOW VOTERS WOULD CAST THEIR BALLOT IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY –

BIDEN’S SUPPORT FROM THE NATION’S YOUNGEST VOTERS DROPPED TO 43 PERCENT.

MEANWHILE – TRUMP WENT FROM 35 PERCENT OF THE YOUNG VOTE IN 2020 TO 45 PERCENT OF GEN-Z AND YOUNG MILLENNIALS SAYING THEY WOULD VOTE FOR TRUMP IN A HYPOTHETICAL RE-MATCH.

WHEN YOU WIDEN THE DEMOGRAPHIC –

TRUMP’S SUPPORT GROWS ACCORDING TO THE EMERSON POLL.

AMONG 30 TO 39 YEAR OLDS POLLED–

TRUMP LEADS BIDEN BY ABOUT 11 PERCENTAGE POINTS.

49 TO 38 PERCENT.

THE MOST RECENT POLL GOES AGAINST YOUR NORMAL TREND.

THE MAJORITY OF YOUNG PEOPLE TEND TO LEAN DEMOCRATIC.

BUT THIS POLL HAS TRUMP ACCUMULATING MORE OF THE YOUNGER CROWD’S SUPPORT THAN THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE.

IT’S NOT THE ONLY POLL SHOWING AN UNUSUAL SHIFT.

THE LATEST QUINNIPIAC POLL HAS BIDEN LOSING SUPPORT AMONG YOUNG VOTERS SINCE THE ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR BEGAN.

THE PRESIDENT’S APPROVAL RATING IS THE LOWEST AMONG VOTERS 18 TO 34 AT 29 PERCENT.

THE PRESIDENT’S FAVORABILITY IS ALSO LOWEST AMONG YOUNG VOTERS AT 25 PERCENT.

YOUNG VOTERS HAD A **MORE FAVORABLE VIEW OF TRUMP IN THIS POLL.

IN A WASHINGTON POST-ABC POLL –

TRUMP LED BIDEN BY 20 POINTS AMONG VOTERS UNDER THE AGE OF 35.

HOWEVER THAT POLL HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS AN OUTLIER GIVEN OTHER POLLS HAVE BIDEN WINNING THE YOUNG VOTE BY SIGNIFICANT MARGINS.

WHEN IT COMES TO POLLS –

IT’S NEVER BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OR RELIABLE DATA.

BUT – YOU CAN OFTENTIMES POINT TO TRENDS TO AT LEAST WATCH FOR.

AND RIGHT NOW –IT’S WHERE THE YOUNGER DEMOGRAPHIC’S  LOYALTIES LIE THAT LOOKS TO BE UNCLEAR.

FOR YOUNGER REPUBLICAN VOTERS –

THAT DO BACK THE FORMER PRESIDENT –

THEIR SUPPORT IS AMONG TRUMP’S STRONGEST.

IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY –

73 PERCENT OF GOP VOTERS AGES 18 TO 34 WOULD CHOOSE TRUMP AS THEIR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE ACCORDING TO “FIVE-THIRTY-EIGHT POLLING.”

THAT’S HIGHER THAN ANY OTHER AGE DEMOGRAPHIC –

AND 12 POINTS HIGHER THAN REPUBLICANS 50 TO 64 YEARS OLD.

ACCORDING TO A NEW YORK TIMES POLL –

AMONG ALL DEMOGRAPHICS WITHIN THE GOP – IT’S GEN-Z THAT LIKES THE FORMER PRESIDENT THE MOST.

A WHOPPING 83 PERCENT OF LIKELY-REPUBLICAN VOTERS 18 TO 29 HAVE A FAVORABLE VIEW OF TRUMP.

SOMETHING ELSE TO CONSIDER WHEN IT COMES TO POLLS.

NOT ONLY CAN RESULTS WIDELY DIFFER –

BUT THERE’S ALSO A PORTION OF VOTERS WHO ARE ‘UNDECIDED.’

AND IN THE EMERSON COLLEGE POLL THAT HAS TRUMP LEADING BIDEN 45 TO 43 PERCENT AMONG YOUNG VOTERS –

12 PERCENT OF THE YOUNGER DEMOGRAPHIC MARKED ‘UNDECIDED.’

WHICH MEANS CONVINCING THAT 12 PERCENT COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOW AND ELECTION DAY.

HOW BIG OF A DIFFERENCE –

WOULD DEPEND ON TURNOUT.

VOTER TURNOUT WAS LOWEST AMONG 18 TO 24 YEAR OLDS IN 2020 AT ABOUT 50 PERCENT.

FOR COMPARISON – 65 TO 74 YEAR OLDS VOTED THE MOST AT 76%.