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Did the pollsters blow it again? In 2016, American voters were taken by surprise when Donald Trump won the presidential election over Hillary Clinton, despite polls predicting otherwise. Pollsters were criticized for underestimating the enthusiasm of Trump supporters. This time around, in the 2022 midterm elections, polling numbers suggested Republicans would win big, but the so-called “red wave” failed to materialize. And while Republicans are expected to gain control of the House and possibly the Senate, Straight Arrow News contributor Newt Gingrich says it’s time for his party to rethink its strategies going forward.
I have to confess this has been one of the most amazing elections I’ve ever lived through. I thought, based on models I’ve seen in the past, that with the current rate of inflation, the price of gasoline, the price of food, the crime rate going up in the big cities, people crossing the border by the millions, and radicalism being taught in schools, all of that would come together to create a red wave. I said so publicly. It didn’t. And I think that’s one of the most puzzling things that we’re gonna have to really look at.
Seventy-five percent of the country in the exit polls said we’re going in the wrong direction, 75%, three out of every four. And yet, they went in and they voted to continue going in the wrong direction. It was fascinating to me, and I think requires every Republican to look carefully at what happened and why did it happen. And frankly, it’s a grave danger for the Democrats.
When we won in 1994, first time in 40 years, the Republicans took control, the shock was so great, that if you look at Bill Clinton’s comments the next day, he says, you know, we got a shellacking here, we have to really rethink what we’re doing. And the next year, he came to the State of the Union and said, the era of big government is over.
Because they did not get a shellacking this time, Joe Biden held a press conference and basically said, everything worked perfectly. I’m not changing anything, and we’re gonna keep doing what we’re doing.
It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out in 2024. But I just want you to know, I am aware that the red wave became a trickle. I’m aware that certainly what my model suggested didn’t happen, which means we got to rethink it and look at it again, try to learn some lessons and move forward.
