Democrats face uncertain outlook in key midterm races

Let’s talk about key races I’m looking at for the 2022 midterms. And really this is like a glass half-full, glass half-empty sort of thing if you are a rational person and you understand how humiliating it is globally, that we have some of the candidates we have in the United States. There is both good news and bad news in some of the data that I’m going to present to you today. Here are the races I’m looking at. 

First of all, Pennsylvania is a huge focus. The reason Pennsylvania is a huge focus is two reasons. The senate race in Pennsylvania between TV doctor Mehmet Oz and John Fetterman might decide who controls the senate. The gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano versus Josh Shapiro, may decide whether in 2024 the governor of Pennsylvania tries to steal the election, no matter who wins. So let’s talk about that.

First and foremost, Oz versus Fetterman. Fetterman’s winning. That’s the good news. So you could say glass half-full, Betterman’s winning, Oz is losing in Pennsylvania. Great.

What’s the bad news? What’s the glass half-empty perspective? Well, Fetterman’s only winning by six and a half when Oz is a complete and totally unqualified clown TV doctor, who isn’t even really from Pennsylvania, although it’s up to Pennsylvanians to decide whether they care about that. So is it glass half-full Fetterman’s winning, or is it glass half empty? How is Fetterman only winning by six when Fetterman is eminently qualified and Oz is not. Similarly in Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, the Democrat, is winning by an average of six. That’s good news. It’s good that Doug Mastriano, who was at January 6th, who perpetuates the Big Lie, it’s good that Mastriano’s losing. But Mastriano’s only losing by six and that’s really, really scary. 

Similarly in the Florida Senate, Marco Rubio has been a senator in Florida for more than a decade. He’s a Republican, he’s the incumbent. Democratic challenger Val Demings, former law enforcement, current congresswoman, she is challenging Rubio. There is one recent poll from August in which Demings is winning by four, but most polls from the last few months show Rubio winning. So is it good news? Is it a glass half-full situation that Demings is right in there up against an incumbent? Yeah, that’s good. But there’s also the glass half-empty perspective, which is, Rubio is horrible. I mean, just a humiliation for Florida. And he seems to still have a shot at getting re-elected against a really good challenger like Val Demings. 

We can then look at the Arizona Senate. Arizona Senate is another really important race where incumbent Mark Kelly, former astronaut, his name may ring a bell. He is thankfully leading Blake Masters by an average of six. Well, that’s great, right? Glass half full. Well, Masters is a joke. A complete and total joke…and Kelly’s only winning by six. That’s not quite so good. 

Maybe the most humiliating poll for the United States – this is embarrassing for all of us, my friends – is in the Georgia Senate. In the Georgia Senate, Raphael Warnock is the incumbent Democratic senator. Warnock is intelligent; Warnock has deep, nuanced understanding of a number of different political issues; Warnock is a really interesting candidate and he is the incumbent. And Herschel Walker, former football player, is the Republican nominee and Warnock is only leading by one on average. Walker can’t even speak, okay. There are a hundred senators. Being in the Senate, ideally would require intellectual rigor. I mean, ideally… it doesn’t, but ideally it would require some intellectual rigor. It would require deep understanding of issues. It would require the ability to put together a single coherent sentence and Herschel Walker can’t even do that. And somehow Warnock is only winning by one.

Some viewers have written to me and said, “David, you know, I’ve said this before and I wasn’t serious, but if Walker wins, I’m quitting politics. I’m not saying I’m moving to Canada, but I’m quitting politics.” 

Couple other examples here. Let’s stick with Georgia…Georgia gubernatorial, the incumbent Brian Kemp is leading Stacey Abrams by about five. That’s just horrible. Stacey Abrams is brilliant, maybe responsible for more voter registration in the state of Georgia in the last decade than any other single person. Great candidate and Brian Kemp, who’s just a horrible standard, no-policy Republican, is winning by five. 

And then lastly in Texas, Greg Abbott is the current Republican governor. Abbott has overseen a dramatic clamp down on women’s rights, abortion rights. Abbott has overseen this completely horrifying isolation of the Texas power grid. He didn’t create it, but he cheerleads it and he supports it and he thinks he’s great. He thinks it’s great. And Beto O’Rourke is running against him. O’Rourke is a smart Democrat, not a far-left guy, but good on guns, good on women’s rights and Abbott is winning by about seven. 

So there’s lots of good that we can find in the 2022 midterm polls, but there’s also a lot that’s really, really bad. Let me know what races you are watching.