Many legal experts believe the Justice Department is getting close to indicting former President Donald Trump for taking – and attempting to conceal – classified documents when he left office in January 2021. Trump claims he de-classified those documents, but the government’s search warrant suggests law enforcement is investigating Trump for obstruction of justice charges in violation of the Espionage Act. Prosecutors claim they tried for more than a year to retrieve the more than 300 classified documents that were missing from the National Archives since Trump left office.
Straight Arrow News contributor David Pakman analyzes the chances Trump will be indicted and sent to prison.
Is Donald Trump ever going to see the inside of a prison cell? I believe the answer is no. And there are two analyses. Let’s first talk about the legal one, the criminal justice analysis, and then we’ll talk about the logistical one.
Whatever Trump is charged with, I think, is almost certainly going to be on the lower end of the seriousness spectrum of what he could be charged with to begin with.
Most charges don’t go to a trial. They end in some kind of plea. And almost certainly, I think we are going to end up with less serious charges than what could be and the plea that doesn’t include any prison time or jail time.
I think the most serious thing that might come out of it would be Trump agreeing not to run for federal office again, maybe. But I don’t believe any plea is going to include any prison or jail time. I just don’t see it.
So then we get to the logistical point. Imagine that Trump actually is indicted. There is no plea. It goes to trial, you somehow find a jury that is considered an impartial jury, which is so difficult given who Trump is, and you get a guilty verdict. And you get a sentence that includes prison. I mean, we’re already six steps in. Imagine that you get all that?
As much as I think Trump was a disastrous president, I have to acknowledge that as someone who is entitled to Secret Service protection for the rest of his life, as Trump is, there is no practical way to put Trump in prison.
Now I know you might say, well, but David, they could put him in prison in total isolation, and then he would be safe. Would he? I mean, I think Secret Service protection even extends to protecting Trump from prison guards – corrections officers – I think they are more politely called.
So I don’t see any way that even if Trump were sentenced, he serves the sentence in an actual facility. I think it’s an ankle monitor in one of his many homes. That’s the bottom line. And I know a lot of people will be disappointed if that happens.
If you think I’m wrong about that, then I want to hear from you. But if you ask me the most likely totality of the circumstances expectation outcome, it’s indictment. Absolutely. I would bet on an indictment. And I would bet not a single day behind bars.
