Republicans are eyeing 2024 as their chance to regain control of the Senate. Nearly three dozen seats will be on the ballot next year, including several with Democratic incumbents who are considered vulnerable. Republicans only need a net gain of two seats to take control of the chamber. However, the disappointing results of the 2022 midterms, which saw Democrats maintain majority control in the upper house of Congress, should temper any GOP overconfidence.
Straight Arrow News contributor Matthew Continetti cautions that Republicans need quality candidates to run if they’re going to retake the Senate in 2024.
At first glance, Republicans are on their way to capturing the Senate. They need a net gain of two seats, or one if the GOP wins the presidency, to take control of the chamber. And they have plenty of targets. Of the 34 seats up for grabs, two-thirds are held by Democrats or by independents who caucus with Democrats. Moreover, Democrats must defend three seats in states that backed Donald Trump by considerable margins in both 2016 and 2020.
The Democrats also must defend five additional seats in states that President Biden won by less than five percent. In contrast, there are no Republican incumbents from Biden states, and just two whose previous election margins were below five percent. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida come from states that Trump twice won handily and that are more than likely to be red next year, as well. But looks can be deceiving.
The last election cycle also seemed promising for Senate Republicans. They held 50 seats, enjoyed a favorable political environment, and eyed potential pickups in three states that Trump lost narrowly in 2020. They ended up losing one seat, and they’ve been squabbling with each other ever since. Senate Republicans want to avoid a repeat. As always, candidate quality will be essential. A good candidate is likable, telegenic, fluent in the issues, quick on his feet, and appropriate to the culture of his state.
To avoid a replay of 2010, 2012, and 2022, Senate Republicans not only will have to put up a presidential nominee who can win the battlegrounds of Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, they also will have to choose Senate candidates whose personal traits and policy preferences don’t send independents and suburbanites running for the hills.
