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Education, income level, geography, race and ethnicity are all key variables in estimating who voters might support. But the importance of these variables has changed in recent elections, as America’s demography, culture and political movements continue to evolve.
Straight Arrow News contributor Matthew Continetti argues that education and income level have become more important than race or ethnicity, that this change marks a shift from previous elections where race was more important, and that this change continues to accelerate over time.
Data show Democrats rapidly losing non-college educated minority voters, particularly Hispanics, to the Republicans. For example, Trump’s favorability has doubled among Hispanic Americans in the last year. And the Democrats’ advantage among non-white voters is at its lowest point since the 1960s.
This realignment has unfolded in stages. It began in the 1960s, with non-college whites abandoning Democrats over issues like crime and Vietnam. Then in the 1990s, college-educated whites began drifting from the Republicans over the religious right and the NRA.
Trump’s 2016 election marked the third stage, with many college white voters leaving the GOP but being offset by huge gains among non-college whites. The white working class felt a gut connection to Trump, who also began picking up support among Hispanic voters and Black men, despite the media narrative that he and MAGA are racist.
Biden’s presidency has catalyzed the educational divide. His policies on spending, energy and immigration have alienated non-college voters of every race and ethnicity concerned about living standards, security and the rule of law.
