If Donald Trump is elected president in November, he will have assembled a coalition unlike any Republican nominee in my lifetime. For decades, GOP success depended on support from three groups, college educated white voters in the suburbs, non college educated white voters in manufacturing in rural areas and independent voters. Donald Trump succeeded with a strategy in 2016. But he lost ground with white college educated and independent voters and 2020, contributing to his defeat. And yet, remarkably, Trump is now leading Joe Biden, he’s won back independence. Perhaps most important, he’s made gains among non college educated non white voters. These new voters more than compensate for Trump’s continued struggles with college educated whites. As recently as a few years ago, one might have been skeptical toward claims that educational attainment and ideology were becoming more significant than ethnicity and race. Such incredulity is no longer warranted. The realignment isn’t just real, it’s accelerating. Data show Democrats rapidly losing non college educated minority voters, particularly Hispanics to the Republicans. For example, Trump’s favorability has doubled among Hispanic Americans in the last year. And the Democrats advantage among non white voters is at its lowest point since the 1960s. This realignment has unfolded in stages. It began in the 1960s, with non college whites abandoning Democrats over issues like crime and Vietnam. Then in the 1990s, college educated whites began drifting from the Republicans over the religious right, and the NRA. Trump’s 2016 election marked the third stage, with many college white voters leaving the GOP but being offset by huge gains among non college whites. The white working class felt a gut connection to Trump, who also began picking up support among Hispanic voters and black men. Despite the media narrative that he and Maga are racist. Biden’s presidency has catalyzed the educational divide. His policies on spending energy and immigration have alienated non college voters of every race and ethnicity concerned about living standards, security and the rule of law. The world has become more dangerous with Russia invading Ukraine, Iranian proxies wreaking havoc in the Middle East, and China and North Korea testing American willpower state collapse in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Venezuela and Haiti, fuels migration and unrest. Biden will turn 82 years old in November, he doesn’t look up to the job. A realign politics isn’t stable. As the Democrats become the party of college educated affluent insiders. They become removed from the world of non college educated workers who feel ignored or excluded from elite institutions and expert decision making. The professionalization of print digital and broadcast media has a strange writers and talkers for most Americans. The highly educated highly compensated denizens of Washington DC and its surrounding counties have become a world unto themselves. Those who live inside the bubble find it hard, if not impossible to see outside of it. There’s less trust in a society where those who write the rules appear insulated or exempt from the rules. We aren’t used to a politics where the party of the left represents the establishment, and the party of the right represents an insurgent movement against the settled way of doing things. Poll results are not the equivalent of ballot returns. The Trump coalition may fail to materialize this November, or it could show up in all the wrong places, winning Trump additional votes and blue cities in states he’s fated to lose. And yet, when I look at Biden’s consistently abysmal poll numbers, I can’t help feeling that the country has written him off. The Democratic coalition has imploded and a new phase of American politics, raucous demotic performative over the top and potentially earth shattering is about to begin.
Related
Matthew Continetti
Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute
View Video LibraryCommentary
Our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions on complex topics.
How could RFK Jr. impact 2024 election?
16 hrs ago
Peter Zeihan
Global warming won’t impact Russian-Chinese shipping
Yesterday
Peter Zeihan
Can other nations replicate success of US shale revolution?
Wednesday
Peter Zeihan
Peace between Israel and Iran, at least for now
Tuesday
Peter Zeihan
Education, income becoming key variables in elections
Mar 21
By Straight Arrow News
Education, income level, geography, race and ethnicity are all key variables in estimating who voters might support. But the importance of these variables has changed in recent elections, as America’s demography, culture and political movements continue to evolve.
Straight Arrow News contributor Matthew Continetti argues that education and income level have become more important than race or ethnicity, that this change marks a shift from previous elections where race was more important, and that this change continues to accelerate over time.
Data show Democrats rapidly losing non-college educated minority voters, particularly Hispanics, to the Republicans. For example, Trump’s favorability has doubled among Hispanic Americans in the last year. And the Democrats’ advantage among non-white voters is at its lowest point since the 1960s.
This realignment has unfolded in stages. It began in the 1960s, with non-college whites abandoning Democrats over issues like crime and Vietnam. Then in the 1990s, college-educated whites began drifting from the Republicans over the religious right and the NRA.
Trump’s 2016 election marked the third stage, with many college white voters leaving the GOP but being offset by huge gains among non-college whites. The white working class felt a gut connection to Trump, who also began picking up support among Hispanic voters and Black men, despite the media narrative that he and MAGA are racist.
Biden’s presidency has catalyzed the educational divide. His policies on spending, energy and immigration have alienated non-college voters of every race and ethnicity concerned about living standards, security and the rule of law.
If Donald Trump is elected president in November, he will have assembled a coalition unlike any Republican nominee in my lifetime. For decades, GOP success depended on support from three groups, college educated white voters in the suburbs, non college educated white voters in manufacturing in rural areas and independent voters. Donald Trump succeeded with a strategy in 2016. But he lost ground with white college educated and independent voters and 2020, contributing to his defeat. And yet, remarkably, Trump is now leading Joe Biden, he’s won back independence. Perhaps most important, he’s made gains among non college educated non white voters. These new voters more than compensate for Trump’s continued struggles with college educated whites. As recently as a few years ago, one might have been skeptical toward claims that educational attainment and ideology were becoming more significant than ethnicity and race. Such incredulity is no longer warranted. The realignment isn’t just real, it’s accelerating. Data show Democrats rapidly losing non college educated minority voters, particularly Hispanics to the Republicans. For example, Trump’s favorability has doubled among Hispanic Americans in the last year. And the Democrats advantage among non white voters is at its lowest point since the 1960s. This realignment has unfolded in stages. It began in the 1960s, with non college whites abandoning Democrats over issues like crime and Vietnam. Then in the 1990s, college educated whites began drifting from the Republicans over the religious right, and the NRA. Trump’s 2016 election marked the third stage, with many college white voters leaving the GOP but being offset by huge gains among non college whites. The white working class felt a gut connection to Trump, who also began picking up support among Hispanic voters and black men. Despite the media narrative that he and Maga are racist. Biden’s presidency has catalyzed the educational divide. His policies on spending energy and immigration have alienated non college voters of every race and ethnicity concerned about living standards, security and the rule of law. The world has become more dangerous with Russia invading Ukraine, Iranian proxies wreaking havoc in the Middle East, and China and North Korea testing American willpower state collapse in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Venezuela and Haiti, fuels migration and unrest. Biden will turn 82 years old in November, he doesn’t look up to the job. A realign politics isn’t stable. As the Democrats become the party of college educated affluent insiders. They become removed from the world of non college educated workers who feel ignored or excluded from elite institutions and expert decision making. The professionalization of print digital and broadcast media has a strange writers and talkers for most Americans. The highly educated highly compensated denizens of Washington DC and its surrounding counties have become a world unto themselves. Those who live inside the bubble find it hard, if not impossible to see outside of it. There’s less trust in a society where those who write the rules appear insulated or exempt from the rules. We aren’t used to a politics where the party of the left represents the establishment, and the party of the right represents an insurgent movement against the settled way of doing things. Poll results are not the equivalent of ballot returns. The Trump coalition may fail to materialize this November, or it could show up in all the wrong places, winning Trump additional votes and blue cities in states he’s fated to lose. And yet, when I look at Biden’s consistently abysmal poll numbers, I can’t help feeling that the country has written him off. The Democratic coalition has imploded and a new phase of American politics, raucous demotic performative over the top and potentially earth shattering is about to begin.
Related
Who will Trump pick for vice presidential running mate?
Donald Trump is now clearly on track to run as the GOP candidate for president in the 2024 elections, regardless of how his various criminal trials proceed. What’s less clear is who else might run as his running mate for the position of vice president. Straight Arrow News contributor Matthew Continetti reviews a list of…
Yesterday
Education, income becoming key variables in elections
Education, income level, geography, race and ethnicity are all key variables in estimating who voters might support. But the importance of these variables has changed in recent elections, as America’s demography, culture and political movements continue to evolve. Straight Arrow News contributor Matthew Continetti argues that education and income level have become more important than…
Mar 21
If we’re lucky, AOC and the Squad are on their way out
The Squad, comprised of eight left-wing House Democrats, has been openly critical of Israel both before and during Israel’s war with Hamas. As primaries approach, some of these House members are facing challenging political races. Straight Arrow News contributor Matthew Continetti delves into the backlash against the Squad and hopes its members will face a…
Feb 22
All bets are off in a Biden-Trump rematch
As the presidential primaries unfold, a Trump-Biden rematch in November appears increasingly likely. History suggests a smooth path to victory for incumbents like Joe Biden, but the scenario becomes far less predictable when that incumbent is running against another former president like Donald Trump. Straight Arrow News contributor Matthew Continetti highlights the rarity of a…
Jan 25
If America cuts off Ukraine aid, Putin will never stop aggression
The U.S. Senate is not expected to vote on a package for increased aid to Ukraine until early next year. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the United States has granted a total of $111 billion in aid to Ukraine, including a minimum of $45 billion allocated for military assistance. The…
Dec 21
Underreported stories from each side
Biden’s 13th-Quarter Approval Average Lowest Historically
8 sources | 13% from the left
AP Images
Jamie Raskin Slams Supreme Court Over Trump Immunity Case: ‘Acting Like A Bunch Of Partisan Operatives’
6 sources | 0% from the right
AP Images
Latest Stories
Biden uses NFL draft ad to try to connect with young voters
Watch 2:16
11 hrs ago
Powering pot: Energy for US cannabis industry could electrify 13.5M homes
Watch 1:29
11 hrs ago
Allies plan for Trump to have more control over interest rates
Watch 3:07
11 hrs ago
FDA: Bird flu found in 1/5 commercial milk samples, suggests greater spread
Watch 1:21
12 hrs ago
China permanently deploys warships to second overseas base
Watch 2:58
12 hrs ago
Popular Opinions
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum.
House Speaker Johnson’s foreign aid bill shows a focused GOP
17 hrs ago
Star Parker
Trump’s own behavior betrays his guilt
17 hrs ago
Dr. Rashad Richey
Portraying far-left and far-right as equal in ‘Civil War’ is wrong
Yesterday
Jordan Reid
Who will Trump pick for vice presidential running mate?
Yesterday
Matthew Continetti