Why DeSantis’ odds of beating Trump have plummeted

Can Donald Trump and his Magga allies and Ron DeSantis, his presidential run before it even starts? This is increasingly the question that Trump and people around him are working on. And it is a real question mark as to whether Ron DeSantis is actually going to be able to get away from announcing that he is indeed running. So let me set the stage for you. months ago, it seemed as though Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, was destined not only to run for the Republican nomination, but to have a real shot at actually winning and taking it from Donald Trump. He was surging and 2420 24 Republican primary polls despite not having announced he won his Governor reelection gubernatorial reelection in Florida over performing the polls won by close to 20 points, even though the polls had him ahead by only 11. This guy’s star was absolutely rising and mega donors were lining up behind them and saying we’re done with Trump. DeSantis is our guy. What has changed? A couple different things have changed. Number one DeSantis has become obsessed with a few issues that are losing issues nationally in a general election. And questionable issues for a Republican primary. These are obsessively battling Disney. Many Americans love Disney. I hate theme parks many Americans love it. The focus and obsession on Disney isn’t going super well. Number two, signing a six week abortion ban into law in Florida. Most Americans and most Floridians disagree with that. Number three, expanding don’t say gay in theory, these are all things Republicans you’d like. But on the issues, the country has continued to move to the left. And even if there are still many anti abortion people on balance, a six week abortion ban is not good policy at this point in time. And then fourth, the obsession with woke even though there are numerous recent polls that say, when asked about wokeness in a fair way. Most Americans come on come down on the side of woke not of anti woke, that is hurting Ron DeSantis. And Republican mega donors are noticing it. There was a Rolling Stone piece recently, which obtained a Rolling Stone obtained messages from a group chat of some of these Florida Republican mega donors basically saying and I’m paraphrasing here, what the hell’s going on? Why is DeSantis talking about this stuff? Why won’t DeSantis go at Trump? In a better way? Is he a wimp? That has hurt Ron DeSantis. Secondly, and this is crazy. As I told you in previous discussions, Donald Trump’s first potentially of many arrests, has actually helped them in the Republican primary. I believe it will hurt him in a general election. But right now we’re at the primary stage. So the question now is with Ron DeSantis, averaging roughly between 23 and 25%, in most primary polls, Is he better off not running at all in 2024, letting Trump win or lose and either way in 2028, Trump won’t be a factor Trump won’t be a candidate, two sides to this. On the one hand, there’s a bit of like a sunk cost fallacy. In poker, I’ve used this analogy before. You might for people who play poker, this might resonate with you, you limp into a hand with like King three, and then the flop comes in, you’ve got a pair of threes. And you’re like, I really should get out of this. This is not I’m not likely to win. But I’ve got that pair of threes. Let me just like stick around even if statistically, based on what’s on the board, you’re not likely to win. Is there some degree to which DeSantis looks at the polling and says, Okay, I’m only pulling 24 But I’m not even running yet. This is a gift. If I run, then I’ll grow my support. The other side of it would be even if you announce and grow your support, in most polls, Trump already has more than 50%. So if Trump has more than 50%, and you’ve got 25, let’s call it 55 and 25, for lack of a better term, that’s 80. That means there’s another 20 up for grabs, and it might be 2% for Nikki Haley and 1% for Vivec Revis Ramaswamy whatever. Even if DeSantis gets that full 20 points that is held by people other than Trump, it would still only put him at 45. And so the math becomes very difficult. And that would be an argument for saying DeSantis shouldn’t Ron DeSantis should get out at the end of the day, based on the people I’ve spoken to in Florida who are sort of like in the periphery of DeSantis. And looking at generally what it is that is going on. I still believe it is more likely than not that the Santas runs. I don’t see a path to DeSantis winning the Republican primary unless Donald Trump is arrested and indicted more times once more multiple more times. And it becomes

so damaging both to Trump’s reputation within the Republican Party. Remember, it’s got to get pretty bad to damage Trump’s reputation within the party. And it interferes with Trump’s ability to even run a campaign to do rallies to do the things he has to do. That is the best possible scenario for DeSantis. But otherwise, I really don’t see what could derail Trump’s primary campaign at this point in time other than a health issue, or just such legal problems that he can’t run a campaign.