We are on the cusp of the commencement of the first of former president Donald Trump’s four trials. As someone who would like nothing more than for this horrible man – this criminal, who has caused so much pain to so many – to be locked away for the remainder of his life, I should be…if not “eagerly anticipating” the trial, certainly looking forward to the opportunity to have Trump pay for his actions. 

But I do not feel very optimistic about the outcome here. Because here’s the thing: This first trial, the so-called “hush money” trial – it actually doesn’t seem to offer an especially strong case against Trump. 

Trump paid off adult film star Stormy Daniels to keep her from talking about their affair in the leadup to the 2016 election – I don’t think anyone doubts that. Trump knew about the payment; of course he did. But there are several worrying factors that I fear will lead to either an acquittal, a mistrial, or – at the worst – some fines and a slap on the wrist. 

First, hush money payments aren’t actually illegal; they’re just gross. What would be illegal would be the fact that the payments were marked as “legal expenses” on Trump’s records. Trump’s attorneys will almost certainly argue that the former president had no knowledge or understanding of the bookkeeping process or how these payments were recorded. 

And even if the prosecution can prove that he did…falsification of business records is a misdemeanor, not a felony. It’s not the kind of thing that results in jail time. It’s not the kind of thing that I can imagine his rabid supporters abandoning him because of. If the prosecution can prove that these hush money payments amounted to campaign finance violations, the charges could rise to the level of a felony…but a conviction is still very unlikely to result in anything more than a fine, or probation. 

Another problem is the credibility of the man who appears likely to be the primary witness in this case, Trump’s former attorney and friend Michael Cohen. Michael Cohen has lied in court. A lot. By his own admission. He also hates Donald Trump. A lot. By his own admission. And these factors combined may make the jury view him as an unreliable witness. 

This case was never going to be the strongest one against Trump – the classified-documents case, the January 6 case and the Fulton County, Georgia case all allege more serious crimes, with vaster consequences should he be convicted. But those cases, more than ever, are looking unlikely to see verdicts before the presidential election. Which, of course, is what Trump is hoping for. 

So I suppose we’ll just have to wait and see. I just wonder whether this case will have much of an impact on…well…anything at all.