Why timing of Trump’s trials could doom his reelection chances

Now with significantly less uncertainty about whether Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee, when his criminal trials will be, etc, we can start to have a more practical conversation about how, if and how the criminal prosecution of Donald Trump will affect the general election in the United States, just 10 or so months from now, unless something completely unpredictable happens, Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. And we now have a better sense of the scheduling of Trump’s criminal trials. And the question that we’re going to sort of explore here and seek to get some definition on is how might the November election be impacted by the process of Trump’s criminal trials, including possible convictions? And including possible sentences? Will the timing even possibly get us that information before the election? The answer is on some of the trials Quite possibly. First and foremost, what is going to be the timing of Trump’s criminal trials as a reminder we have for forthcoming criminal trials 91 Total felony counts across them. Okay. The prosecution of Donald Trump in New York criminally on the 34 hush money related charges is scheduled for March. This is mere weeks away at this point in time, the federal prosecution of Donald Trump over the classified documents is happening in May. The federal prosecution of Donald Trump on the election obstruction case is happening in March, although that’s only four charges. And then the Georgia election racketeering prosecution has as of this moment not been scheduled. So let’s take the fact that there are two of these trials scheduled for March. What does that mean? What does that signify about whether there may be a conviction before the presidential election?  unless there are unforeseen delays, or the case lasts a completely unexpected and unusual amount of time. The March cases would likely be adjudicated not only before the November general election, although sentencing might not be in the case of a convict conviction, but even potentially before the conventions that the parties will have in the middle to late summer. Why is this so relevant? Not because Donald Trump might be sitting in a prison cell by the time of the election, that’s extraordinarily unlikely, for a number of reasons we’ll talk about in a moment. But because we now have a new polling, as we do, for example, from Ipsos Reuters, which says that the vast majority of the country would not vote for Trump, if he were convicted of a crime. Now, his most ardent supporters absolutely would. But what you have to remember is that Trump’s supporters, as of this moment, are about 60% of the Republican primary vote. Many Republicans don’t vote in the primary and of the 60% of the Republican primary vote, only some portion of that are his most hardcore supporters, who would continue to support him, even if they were if he were to be convicted. So the polling that is much more general and asks the entire country, if Trump’s convicted, are you supporting him? An overwhelming majority, I believe it’s 80. Either would not or aren’t sure that they would support Trump, if he were to be convicted. Forget sentencing, Trump’s conviction alone, could be the death knell for his presidential chances in November of 2024. That’s why the timing of these trials is so critical. Now let’s go to sentencing many people write to me, they say, David, is it possible Trump could be inaugurated from prison? I don’t think so. Not because legally, I’m not making a legal assessment of this. Could you be president from prison, legal experts can figure that out? It is not super likely that we would have sentencing and that Trump would have to report to prison before November and even going beyond that. In the event that Trump were to be convicted. And in the event that Trump were to be sentenced. This is not a guarantee, but many legal experts believe that he would most likely serve whatever sentence in some kind of home confinement not literally sitting in a prison cell. That’s the two tier justice system. Remember he gets special privileges. So I don’t believe that sentencing will be a factor. But I do think that possible convictions particularly in those first two March cases, very much could impact the election. Trump no Was this and Trump sees becoming president, by the way, as a way to help himself get out of all of this legal trouble. Do you expect a conviction to be the determining factor in the November presidential race which would be unprecedented in the United States? Let me know I want to hear from you.