A new Nord Stream sabotage theory emerges from Germany

It’s been six months since a series of explosions damaged the Nord Stream pipelines. Investigators still don’t have conclusive evidence showing who is responsible for the sabotage, but there is a new theory.

Germany’s digital new outlet, TOnline, working with Open Source Intelligence, found evidence the Russian navy may have used mini-submersibles to bomb the Nord Stream pipelines. According to the theory, the Russians used planned naval exercises and bad weather to conceal the movement of six ships to the suspected crime scene. One of the ships, the SS-750, is a submarine support ship that carries a mini submarine.

Open source information has helped corroborate the unusual movements of Russian and NATO naval vessels in the vicinity of the Nord Stream pipeline between September 21st – 23rdhttps://t.co/T2hJVp5jr9

— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) March 25, 2023

Even though the ID tracking system on the boat was turned off, satellite imagery shows the SS-750 likely left its port in Kaliningrad on the night of Sept. 21, and was gone for a couple days. However, the SS-750 left port about 14 hours before most of the ships participating in the naval exercises left their ports.

The Russian Ministry of Defense said commandos from the Russian special forces took part in the naval exercises. TOnline and Open Source Intelligence theorize the Spetsnaz members could have easily been on the SS-750 as well.

From here, the investigation gets a little murky, and that may be by design. In addition to the SS-750, there were two tugs with it that also turned off their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS). The tugs flipped the switches when they were about 45 nautical miles away from the primary Nord Stream 1 sabotage site.

Based on the new evidence, TOnline said Russia had the right combination of vessels and soldiers in place to bomb the pipeline. As far as why the Russians would want to blow up their own pipelines and imperil one of the country’s primary sources of revenue, well, no one has an answer.

Oliver Alexander is an analyst with Open Source Intelligence. He said ultimately the evidence he helped uncover, on its own, won’t solve the mystery of the Nord Stream sabotage. However, he said it will likely go a long way to getting some answers.

In the immediate aftermath of the explosions last September, suspicions immediately focused on Russia as the responsible party. At one time or another, Russia blamed the Ukrainians, the British and Americans for blowing up the pipelines.

Seymour Hersh, a Pulitzer prize-winning journalist, accused the U.S. Navy of the sabotage. Another German news outlet floated the idea a German-owned yacht was used by six unnamed saboteurs to cause the chaos. There was also evidence showing a group made up of both Ukrainians and Russians against the invasion were conspiring to blow up the pipelines. There’s nothing to indicate they carried through with the attack, let alone had the means to accomplish it.

The Danish authorities have recovered the unknown object near the Nord Stream 2 pipe. It was recovered at a depth of 73m with a representative of Nord Stream 2 AG present.

They state that the initial investigation shows that it is an expended marine location marker. pic.twitter.com/PXnQqhliKi

— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) March 29, 2023

In late March 2023, Russia asked the UN Security Council to launch an independent investigation into the incident. China and Brazil were the only other nations on the council to support the measure, though. So, the Russian request is essentially dead in the water.

U.S. Deputy Ambassador Robert Wood said there’s no need for the international body to get involved when Sweden, Denmark and Germany are proceeding in a “comprehensive, transparent, and impartial manner.”