Battle for US Senate likely to come down to a few states

Sep 26

Craig Nigrelli Reporter

By Craig Nigrelli (Reporter), Brock Koller (Executive Producer), Kaleb Gillespie (Video Editor)

While the presidential race is dominating the headlines, the balance of power in the Senate is at stake in the upcoming election. Democrats hold a slim 51-49 edge, which includes four Independents who caucus with them.

If the Republicans can pick up just one additional seat and Donald Trump wins the presidency, a 50-50 split in the Senate would lead to JD Vance being the tie breaking vote as vice president. If the GOP adds two seats, they take control of the Senate no matter who wins the presidential election.

There are 34 Senate races this November, with Democrats trying to protect a majority of those seats. Many long-time incumbents are safe, meaning the control of the Senate will come down to a few key states.

Pennsylvania is a key toss-up state where incumbent Democrat Bob Casey is trying to fend off Republican Dave McCormick. Polls show Casey is up by about five percentage points.

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In Ohio, incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is trying to keep his seat and beat back a challenge from Republican Bernie Moreno. Polls show Brown leading by a few points.

Perhaps the best chance for a Republican pick-up is in Montana. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester is lagging behind Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. That race could be the important second pick-up for the GOP.

In West Virginia, where Independent Joe Manchin is retiring, Republican candidate Jim Justice is a heavy favorite.

Arizona, Wisconsin and Florida are also expected to have competitive races.

At this point, Real Clear Politics is forecasting that Republicans will pick-up two seats in November and take control of the U.S. Senate by a 51-49 margin.

Tags: Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown, U.S. Congress, U.S. Senate

Craig Nigrelli: THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE IS DOMINATING THE HEADLINES BUT THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE U-S SENATE IS AT-STAKE IN THE NOVEMBER ELECTION AS WELL. CURRENTLY DEMOCRATS HOLD A SLIM 51-TO-49 EDGE IN THE SENATE, WHICH INCLUDES FOUR INDEPENDENTS, WHO CAUCUS WITH THE DEMOCRATS.

IF REPUBLICANS CAN PICK-UP JUST ONE ADDITIONAL SEAT, AND DONALD TRUMP WINS THE PRESIDENCY, A 50-50 SPLIT IN THE SENATE WOULD SEE VICE PRESIDENT J-D VANCE AS THE TIE-BREAKING VOTE.

IF THE G-O-P ADDS TWO SEATS, THEY TAKE CONTROL OF THE SENATE NO MATTER WHO WINS THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

THERE ARE 34 SENATE RACES THIS NOVEMBER WITH DEMOCRATS TRYING TO DEFEND 23 OF THEM.

THE KEY TOSS-UP STATES ARE IN PENNSYLVANIA, WHERE INCUMBENT BOB CASEY IS TRYING TO FEND-OFF REPUBLICAN DAVE MCCCORMICK. POLLS SHOW CASEY IS UP BY ABOUT FIVE PERCENT.

IN OHIO, INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT SHERROD BROWN IS TRYING TO KEEP HIS SEAT AND BEAT BACK A STRONG CHALLENGE FROM REPUBLICAN BERNIE MORENO. POLLS SHOW BROWN LEADING BY ABOUT 3-AND-A-HALF PERCENT.

IN MICHIGAN, DEMOCRAT ELISSA SLOTKIN LEADS REPUBLICAN MIKE ROGERS BY A FEW POINTS IN a HOTLY CONTESTED RACE.

BUT PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A REPUBLICAN PICK-UP IS IN MONTANA, WHERE INCUMBENT DEMOCRAT JOHN TESTER IS LAGGING BEHIND REPUBLICAN CHALLENGER TIM SHEEHY.

THAT’S SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE REPUBLICANS ARE COUNTING ON FLIPPING WEST VIRGINIA WHERE INDEPENDENT JOE MANCHIN IS RETIRING AND THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE , Jim Justice, IS HEAVILY FAVORED.

OTHER STATES THAT ARE COMPETITIVE INCLUDE ARIZONA, WISCONSIN AND FLORIDA. AT THIS POINT, POLITICAL SITE REAL CLEAR POLITICS IS FORECASTING THAT REPUBLICANS WILL **IN FACT** PICK UP TWO SEATS IN NOVEMBER AND TAKE CONTROL OF THE U-S SENATE BY A 51-TO-49 MARGIN. ‘

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