[Ryan Robertson]

STOP ME IF YOU’VE HEARD THIS BEFORE.  RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN IS THREATENING TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS IF UKRAINE GETS OR USES CERTAIN OTHER WEAPONS CERTAIN WAYS. 

IN THE LATEST EXAMPLE OF NUCLEAR SABER RATTLING, MOSCOW CHANGED ITS PROTOCOLS FOR USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS. NOW, IF A NON-NUCLEAR COUNTRY–LIKE UKRAINE–IS ALLIES WITH A NUCLEAR-ARMED COUNTRY–LIKE THE UNITED STATES- AND PUTS RUSSIAN SOVEREIGNTY AT RISK THE KREMLIN SAYS IT WILL USE NUKES. 

OVER THE COURSE OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE, RUSSIA ISSUED DOZENS OF THREATS CONCERNING THE USE OF ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AND EACH TIME THE THREAT RANG HOLLOW. 

BEFORE I WROTE IT OFF AS JUST MORE BLUSTER, THOUGH, I WANTED TO TALK WITH MATT SHOEMAKER, A FORMER U.S. INTELLIGENCE OFFICER WHO SPENT TIME ON THE RUSSIA DESK. 

All right, Matt, thanks again for joining us. So, you know, the last couple of days, the announcement had come out that Russia was amending the protocols for nuclear responses to say that if Ukraine, or a nation, attacks Russia with long range weapons that puts Russian safety at risk, and that nation is being backed by nuclear power, then Russia can use nuclear weapons.

The announcement was made in September. Went live at the same time that Ukraine was using long range ATACMS outside of Kursk. Is this all just more bluster from Putin?

[Matthew Shoemaker]

Short answer, yes. There’s been a lot of sensationalism, especially here in the United States with regards to this usage of ATACMS. If you go on the Drudge Report, for example, the past three days, their main headlines have been essentially ‘Nuclear war is about to start. All of these countries are updating their nuclear weapons programs and their nuclear responses.’

This was foreseen–Russia, let’s put it that way, had a good idea that this was going to happen. Which is why they announced it back in September. They waited until President Biden announced it. And let’s be honest, President Putin knows President Biden. They’ve met multiple times. Biden’s got two months left on the clock. Putin knows that. Putin knows that, you know, Trump’s about to come in. Putin is going to have a much better time, from his perspective, negotiating with Trump. You know, this is all just bluster at this point. No one anticipates, no one expects that, you know, President Putin is going to start nuclear war over this with President Biden and two months left. Like, there’s nothing whatsoever in it for President Putin to do this. So this is all just bluster, unfortunately. And, you know, people with their own political axes to grind are using it for their advantage, whether it be bludgeoning the other side over the head with, you know, their political comments or, you know, just to try and stir up support for themselves. So, you know, there’s a lot of sensationalism going on.

[Ryan Robertson]

Sure, sure. I mean, it’s 2024, right? You can’t, can’t get by without some sensationalism, right? You mentioned something about the, about the ATACMS. You know, President Biden had approved ATACMS. Ukraine probably doesn’t have that many long-range ATACMS at this point, but President Biden has a few billion dollars left of Congressionally approved money to spend. If Ukraine suddenly got an influx of ATACMS, you know, long-range missiles–would that be enough to change the course of the war over the next couple of months before President Trump takes office?

[Matthew Shoemaker]

A short answer, in my professional assessment as a former intelligence officer, is no. None of that is in President Biden’s wheelhouse. Over the past three years of this conflict, effectively, he has slow-walked, at every single opportunity, any chance that the Ukrainians had to get an upper hand with regards to the Russians. President Biden has denied them that. The only thing President Biden has actually done is given the Ukrainians enough to stay in the fight.

And that’s essentially what this is more than anything, because–and not to get too far into the weeds and become too much of a tactician with regards to this, as you mentioned, you know, the Ukrainians don’t have enough of these ATACMS. The ATACMS themselves come in multiple variants. No one really knows which variants that the Ukrainians have, how many of those variants they have. And the two main variants are: one is a main large warhead itself. And that’s used against, usually like clusters of personnel, for example. And that tends to have a shorter range to it because it tends to be heavier. You need a bigger warhead for it. 

The other variant is, it has a lot of smaller munitions in it and it kind of just like sprays it out over a wide area. That one, from my understanding, has a little bit of a longer range. We don’t know how many the Ukrainians have. We don’t know how many the Ukrainians have of which variant either. That sort of thing. And on top of it, you know, the Ukrainian–or the Americans for that matter–have been helping the Ukrainians pay for the development of a Ukrainian-made, essentially an ATACMS style weapon that the Ukrainians have been fielding, and they can produce those themselves. So, you know, the Ukrainians have been lobbing these into Russia and this doesn’t really change any of the tactics on the field. It is all just bluster. It creates a headline. Because in reality, yes, you know, for the Americans to say you can use these weapons against Russian soil, it is a new development, if you will. 

I would say that, unlike what most of the reporting is saying,  is that from my understanding, there actually are quite a lot of restrictions still on the use of ATACMS. From my understanding, they can only use them around Kursk. It’s meant to give the Ukrainians some bargaining chip when Trump does come into office that the Ukrainians own essentially Russian territory that they can negotiate to give back to the Russians under a Trump administration. There’s a lot of gamesmanship. There’s a lot of different tactics going on. There’s a lot of, you know, chess going on. But for people to just, you know, fly over the handle or handlebars and assume that nuclear war is coming is irresponsible at best and just ludicrous at worst.

[Ryan Robertson]

Matt Shoemaker, always a pleasure talking to you. I am sure in the next few weeks we’ll have more opportunities to pick your brain again.

Matthew Shoemaker:

Pleasure to be here. Thanks for having me on.

IF YOU WANT TO HEAR MORE FROM MATT SHOEMAKER, YOU CAN. JUST HEAD ON OVER TO SAN.COM OR CHECKOUT THE STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS APP TODAY. 

FOR STRAIGHT ARROW NEWS, I’M RYAN ROBERTSON.