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As the Department of Defense continues to investigate who might’ve leaked classified documents detailing U.S. and NATO plans in Ukraine, Russia’s ambassador to Belarus, Boris Gryzlov, turned up the heat. On April 2, Gryzlov said some Russian tactical nuclear weapons will be stationed in Belarus close to its border with NATO members Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland. This news follows a recent statement from President Vladimir Putin saying Belarus’ warplanes have been upgraded and are now capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan explains the recent news might not be as alarming as it sounds.
Excerpted from Peter’s April 10 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
Anytime Russia and nukes are mentioned in the same sentence … the world pays attention. But does moving your nukes to a new place inherently change your military posture?
In the case of Belarus, the answer is no. Russia already has nukes in Kaliningrad (further west than Belarus), so this isn’t “expanding” Putin’s military reach. Additionally, the Belarusian infrastructure sucks, so these nukes will likely sit around and collect dust (unless they’re sold on the open market, but that’s an entirely different conversation).
So what does moving Russian nukes to Belarus accomplish? Putin gets to bang on his chest a little, rally up the domestic nationalism machine, and ensure the internal political situation is still propping him up. As for international security issues, this doesn’t move the needle … at least for now.
