Hey everybody, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from the campus of the University of Toronto. It is June 6 and the news today is that the Russians have blown up the Kakhovka dam, which is the head of a large reservoir on Ukraine’s central river, the Dnieper. The reason … well, it was blown up from the inside so it was definitely the Russians; it wasn’t an external explosion, so there’s really no controversy there. And the fact that after I tweeted it out I got just an avalanche of Russian bots saying otherwise pretty much proves the point as far as I’m concerned.
But anyway, regardless of why it’s gone, four things that matter out of this. First of all, from a purely military point of view, that’s putting humanitarian issues to the side, we’ll get to that later, this is a reasonable play. Ukrainians are getting ready for a significant military offensive, and at least in part that was going to involve a series of amphibious strikes across the Dnieper River, both above and below the dam. That probably can’t happen now.
The reservoir behind it is huge, and it’s gonna take a few days for it to drain, and then it’s going to expose muddy lake bed. And downstream, you’re talking about massive flooding, which when it finally goes down a week or two from now, will also be incredibly muddy. So the offensive to this point has been delayed because of spring melt and winter rains, and all of the mud that goes with that. You’ve basically taken this entire zone and made it no-go for at least a month. Now later on, when the river is lower, it might be easier to cross. But for the here and now and for the next few weeks, absolutely not. So if you’re Russian, there’s some certain logic to destroying the dam.
It’s also the only crossing in the river in the lower section. So you’ve now removed even a theoretical place for the Ukrainians to punch across the river on land, or reinforce with amphibious assaults from elsewhere. So number one. Number two, there is a concern upstream of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant because it drew its coolant water from the reservoir. Now, we’ve poked into this a little bit and the folks at the IAEA are not hugely concerned about this. They think there’s a good backup system in place. But whenever I hear lack of coolant, water, nuclear power plant, I do get a little nervous, so it’s probably probably not a crisis. We’ll see.
Third, we should expect to see more activities like this. This is not the only crossing. There was a bridge to Kherson that the Russians blew up when they were retreating last summer. And if you go up river to Zaporizhzhia, there is a double bridge system along with another dam which creates a another reservoir. And so we you should definitely expect the Russians to repeat the feat there with similar outcomes, although not as much. It’s not as big as the reservoir. And for similar reasons.
But it’s the fourth and biggest reason that I find most, interesting isn’t the right word, but illuminating as to what Russian thinking is. The Kakhovka reservoir, it raises the level of the river and allows four different canal systems to be fed with irrigation water. And three of those systems are absolutely critical for growing crops in southern Ukraine and the Crimea. Now, I’ve always believed that the Ukrainians were going to disable … destroy one of those systems, the one that specifically serves Crimea in order to force a siege on the peninsula. But with that reservoir now gone, none of these systems can access water. You’re talking about territory that is responsible for growing about one quarter of Ukrainian crop. So in a stroke, the Russians have shown us two things. Number one, they really don’t plan on holding this territory in the near term and so they’re going with an old strategy that’s kind of scorched earth that was designed to make it as difficult as possible for anyone who takes the territory to hold it. Because we’re talking now about number two, a country that used to be one of the world’s major bread baskets going to become a net food importer on the verge of at least a regional famine in the not-too-distant future. Or for those of you who are familiar with Russia’s history in Ukraine, triggering a regional famine again. I’ll try to have better news tomorrow. Bye
Related
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitical Strategist
View Video LibraryCommentary
Our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions on complex topics.
New roles for Russia, North Korea, Iran in global arms trade
1 hr ago
Peter Zeihan
Why interest rates will be higher for longer
Friday
Peter Zeihan
‘The worst it’s ever been’: Young Americans on democracy
Thursday
Dr. Frank Luntz
How to handle plunging US birth rate before it’s too late
Thursday
Peter Zeihan
Why Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam collapse could trigger regional famine
Jun 09, 2023
By Straight Arrow News
The destruction of the Kakhovka dam could wreak havoc across southern Ukraine for decades. Aside from impeding Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive against the Russians, the resulting flooding could devastate the country’s rich agricultural production.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan explains why the Ukraine dam collapse could trigger a regional famine.
Excerpted from Peter’s June 7 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
On June 6th, the Russians destroyed the Nova Kakhovka Dam at the head of a large reservoir on the Dnieper River. This is a logical move for the Russians…at least in the short term.
To impede the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the Russians eliminated one of the few viable land crossings in the area and caused flooding further downriver. I wouldn’t expect this to be an isolated event, either. As the Russians seek to inhibit Ukrainian advances, other crossings and dams will likely be targeted.
In addition, the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant’s coolant water could be jeopardized by this move. As of now, it appears there will not be a crisis, but I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed.
However, the key component of this move illuminates what Russia’s strategy might be; by destroying the Nova Kakhovka dam, they wiped out four canal systems…three of which represent critical infrastructure for agriculture in southern Ukraine and Crimea. Russia has made it clear they have little intention of holding this land – and are attempting to make it as hard as possible for anyone else to do so.
By adopting this scorched earth policy, Russia could very well trigger ANOTHER famine throughout this region.
Hey everybody, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from the campus of the University of Toronto. It is June 6 and the news today is that the Russians have blown up the Kakhovka dam, which is the head of a large reservoir on Ukraine’s central river, the Dnieper. The reason … well, it was blown up from the inside so it was definitely the Russians; it wasn’t an external explosion, so there’s really no controversy there. And the fact that after I tweeted it out I got just an avalanche of Russian bots saying otherwise pretty much proves the point as far as I’m concerned.
But anyway, regardless of why it’s gone, four things that matter out of this. First of all, from a purely military point of view, that’s putting humanitarian issues to the side, we’ll get to that later, this is a reasonable play. Ukrainians are getting ready for a significant military offensive, and at least in part that was going to involve a series of amphibious strikes across the Dnieper River, both above and below the dam. That probably can’t happen now.
The reservoir behind it is huge, and it’s gonna take a few days for it to drain, and then it’s going to expose muddy lake bed. And downstream, you’re talking about massive flooding, which when it finally goes down a week or two from now, will also be incredibly muddy. So the offensive to this point has been delayed because of spring melt and winter rains, and all of the mud that goes with that. You’ve basically taken this entire zone and made it no-go for at least a month. Now later on, when the river is lower, it might be easier to cross. But for the here and now and for the next few weeks, absolutely not. So if you’re Russian, there’s some certain logic to destroying the dam.
It’s also the only crossing in the river in the lower section. So you’ve now removed even a theoretical place for the Ukrainians to punch across the river on land, or reinforce with amphibious assaults from elsewhere. So number one. Number two, there is a concern upstream of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant because it drew its coolant water from the reservoir. Now, we’ve poked into this a little bit and the folks at the IAEA are not hugely concerned about this. They think there’s a good backup system in place. But whenever I hear lack of coolant, water, nuclear power plant, I do get a little nervous, so it’s probably probably not a crisis. We’ll see.
Third, we should expect to see more activities like this. This is not the only crossing. There was a bridge to Kherson that the Russians blew up when they were retreating last summer. And if you go up river to Zaporizhzhia, there is a double bridge system along with another dam which creates a another reservoir. And so we you should definitely expect the Russians to repeat the feat there with similar outcomes, although not as much. It’s not as big as the reservoir. And for similar reasons.
But it’s the fourth and biggest reason that I find most, interesting isn’t the right word, but illuminating as to what Russian thinking is. The Kakhovka reservoir, it raises the level of the river and allows four different canal systems to be fed with irrigation water. And three of those systems are absolutely critical for growing crops in southern Ukraine and the Crimea. Now, I’ve always believed that the Ukrainians were going to disable … destroy one of those systems, the one that specifically serves Crimea in order to force a siege on the peninsula. But with that reservoir now gone, none of these systems can access water. You’re talking about territory that is responsible for growing about one quarter of Ukrainian crop. So in a stroke, the Russians have shown us two things. Number one, they really don’t plan on holding this territory in the near term and so they’re going with an old strategy that’s kind of scorched earth that was designed to make it as difficult as possible for anyone who takes the territory to hold it. Because we’re talking now about number two, a country that used to be one of the world’s major bread baskets going to become a net food importer on the verge of at least a regional famine in the not-too-distant future. Or for those of you who are familiar with Russia’s history in Ukraine, triggering a regional famine again. I’ll try to have better news tomorrow. Bye
Related
New roles for Russia, North Korea, Iran in global arms trade
As Russia’s war in Ukraine continues and its weapons supply dwindles, it appears the country is seeking alternative ways of replenishing its arms stockpiles. Iran has reported a 40% increase in arms sales to foreign states, with Russia being a significant recipient. Russia has also been attempting to buy artillery from North Korea. Straight Arrow…
1 hr ago
Why interest rates will be higher for longer
At the start of 2024, the outlook for the U.S. economy was optimistic. Inflation was falling, unemployment was shrinking and the country was experiencing strong GDP growth. As 2024 progressed, that situation changed. Inflation proved stubborn, remaining above 3%, and economic output slowed down, making the Federal Reserve’s initial prediction for six rate cuts no…
Friday
How to handle plunging US birth rate before it’s too late
The latest CDC report on the U.S. birth rate reveals a decline in fertility rates, with 2023 seeing just 1.62 births per woman, marking the lowest level since data collection began in the 1930s. Births in the U.S. decreased for over a decade prior to the onset of COVID-19, and then experienced a 4% drop…
Thursday
Japan must confront reality of military threats
The United States and Japan have been friendly since the aftermath of World War II, after which the U.S. committed around $38 billion (in 2024 dollars) to help rebuild its former enemy. Today, especially in light of the growing military threat from neighboring China, Japan is increasingly aligned with Western security alliances like AUKUS and…
Wednesday
US may need to find new sources of uranium
Russia is the world’s largest producer of enriched uranium, presenting a problem for U.S. supply chains as Western sanctions against Russia continue to escalate in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. In addition to uranium’s use in nuclear weapons, nuclear power provides around 20% of domestic American energy. Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan explains…
Tuesday
Underreported stories from each side
Gen Z is struggling financially more than Millennials did at their age: Study
8 sources | 0% from the left
Getty Images
CFTC Wants to Ban Trades Tied to Elections, Sports and Awards Contests
6 sources | 0% from the right
Latest Stories
Streaming looking more like cable with price hikes, bundling
Watch 2:53
11 mins ago
GameStop stock roars back on Monday with help from Roaring Kitty posts
Watch 2:19
29 mins ago
Report: Number of women, children killed in Gaza cut nearly in half
Watch 2:59
56 mins ago
Woman says officer held her face in fire ant bed during arrest, police refute claim
Watch 2:19
2 hrs ago
The power of social connection: How hanging out impacts well-being
Watch 5:38
4 hrs ago
Popular Opinions
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum.
Polls give slight advantage to Trump in Electoral College
2 hrs ago
Larry Lindsey
Any issue, including Israel-Gaza, could impact 2024 election
3 hrs ago
David Pakman
Biden withholding weapons from Israel emboldens Hamas
Friday
Star Parker
Donald Trump has betrayed every conservative value
Friday
Dr. Rashad Richey