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Biden likely beats Trump in 2024 regardless of early polling
I want to talk with you a little bit today about why I really don’t think it makes sense to panic right now about the possibility that Donald Trump will defeat Joe Biden in November. As a general principle, I don’t ever think it makes sense to panic. So that’s my starting point. If there’s a very bad situation, what we need to do is think, strategize and act, rather than panic. But let’s use panic as a sort of phrase to signify we are very worried, we think it’s unlikely that Biden will be able to win. Let’s honestly look at the situation, big picture. And I think we will find a lot, as people from the left, that will allow us to relax a little, a little bit.
First of all, if there is no recession, if there’s no major geopolitical calamity that directly involves the United States that puts Joe Biden in a position, precarious position, I believe Joe Biden will almost certainly be reelected. Now, it’s not a guarantee. We all must vote. Things can change. But let’s first look at the historical case.
When the economy is solid, presidents get reelected. I know, I’ve said it many times already. But even looking at the polls, the polls say it’s a tight race. Some people will look at polls, and they’ll email me and they’ll say: “Oh, David, look, Trump’s winning all these different polls!” Some will look at the polls and say, you know, it doesn’t look that [bad], Joe Biden is winning a few of these polls. On average, we see a tight race that would probably come down to the results in a handful of important states, as it always does. And to me, looking at this month out, that’s a good thing for Joe Biden. And I’ll tell you why.
Right now, Donald Trump is getting all the media attention. The Republican Party is in the middle of a primary, Trump’s in court, he’s giving press conferences after [sic] court. He’s doing rallies, he’s giving victory speeches after winning primaries, he’s dominating media coverage. Trump has all of that right now. And the polls are basically tight. That’s what we can say, it’s tight. Trump is getting weekly primary wins. And yet, he’s not making any progress on Joe Biden in the polls. And Biden’s approval rating isn’t particularly high right now. And the polling for November is still very, very tight.
The economic indicators are strong. But public opinion about the economy has only recently started to improve. It seems as though public opinion about the economy lags the economic data by three to four months. Three to four months ago, the economy started looking really good. And now we are seeing positivity about the economy increase. So, I believe that Biden’s approval, if nothing major changes, is going to be higher in November than it is today, especially if the economy remains as stable as it is, and if public sentiment about the economy follows that and improves. We just got another great GDP report, 3.3%. Another great inflation report, down to 2.7% year over year. Something would have to do a 180 for a nine-ish-month collapse in all of this data and situation. You look at the stock market, how many record highs have we had this year alone, record-low sustained unemployment rate, record-low unemployment among minority groups, young people, women?
And then lastly, it’s Trump. Yes, Trump will probably win the primaries. He’ll probably be the nominee. And then the criminal trials will begin. People will remember: Why didn’t I vote for him in 2020? Oh, right. And since I already didn’t vote for him in 2020, he was charged in four indictments with 91 felonies. He was found to be a civilly liable rapist and ordered to pay E. Jean Carroll more than $83 million for defaming her. He was found to have committed business fraud in an ongoing and serial way. That recipe, he already lost four years ago, and all of these terrible things have happened, and the economy is pretty good — does not, to me, lead to Trump beats Biden, it leads to Biden beats Trump.
Now the caveats are all very important. It doesn’t mean we now stay home. It doesn’t mean we stop get out the vote efforts. It’s not a guarantee of anything. We don’t assume anything. We still talk to people about the importance of voting. But if we’re looking at this, not from a day-to-day voter activist perspective, but rather from a, hey, we’re doing analysis, what do we expect perspective? All of this looks fine for Joe Biden. Would it be better to be polling more strongly in the polls today? Sure. Would it be better to have a higher approval rating today, of course, but if you really zoom out, it’s very tough to say Biden is in serious trouble if things stay the way they are. Let me know your thoughts whether you agree or disagree with me. I want to hear from you.
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