Now that Democratic President Joe Biden has announced, yes, he is running for re election. We have before us, the most likely general election matchup. And then other possible matchups, we’re going to talk about the Democratic side, the Republican side, and then what a general election campaign would look like, we’ll deal with Biden and Trump’s age, and a whole bunch of different things. So let’s start with Joe Biden. I am not what one would call a Big Joe Biden fan. To be honest, I’m not really a fan of elected officials, I don’t really participate in the cult of personality around individuals, I look at someone and I look at their promises their platform, and when they’ve been in power their record to evaluate whether I would vote for them again, in a general sense, would I prefer to have a younger generation representing the Democratic Party and eventually in the White House than Joe Biden, I would in a complete and total vacuum, I would like that.
If we evaluate Joe Biden, who will be 82 years old, if he wins his second, if he wins re election, and will be 86 years old, at the end of that second term, if we look at Joe Biden, and we say honestly, without cheerleading without hyperbole without attacks, how do we look at his presidency so far?
It’s actually been filled with accomplishments, this may be a broader topic for its own in the future for a future video. But it is actually quite remarkable, all of the small improvements and big improvements that the Biden administration has been able to make, ranging from the inflation Reduction Act to small changes with regard to health care policy, student loans, protection for targeted minority groups, all of these different things. If you actually step back and look at it. No scandals thus far, the right will say, well, getting out of Afghanistan was a scandal. Trump would have done the same thing. It would have gone gone justice poorly. At the end of the day, it was the right decision with some messy realities, no question about it, but not a scandal. No scandals. We’re only a little more than halfway through Joe Biden’s first term, and many accomplishments. And so the question becomes, is there a case for re electing Joe Biden stepping back from his age and demographics? And do we want an old white guy or whatever people on the left and right are saying, there is a very strong case for reelecting Joe Biden, comparing his presidential accomplishments to those of presidents in the past. Now, let’s deal with the age issue. There’s two factors Biden’s age, and the fact that the most likely Republican nominee Donald Trump is almost just as old. We’ll talk about by 2024 Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley recently said on TV, based on Biden’s age 82 At the start of a second term, 86 at the end of it, it’s not likely likely was the word Nikki Haley used that he will live to the end of his second term. That’s wrong. Now
82 could be quote too old to be president or not whatever. But if you actually look at Social Security actuarial tables, which tell you if someone is x age, how long are they expected to live? An 82 year old male, and this has 2022 data 82 year old male and 2022 in the United States average life expectancy of just under seven years. So statistically actuarially,
if Joe Biden survives to 82 and wins and is inaugurated for a second term, we would expect that he would live to the end of that term. These are this is just the data. The numbers for Trump are only marginally different. So if you’re going to make an age case about Joe Biden, then you really should be making it about Donald Trump as well. Now, if we zoom out, what is the most statistically likely scenario for November of 2024? It is none other than Biden versus Trump. Will there even really be a primary on the Democratic side? It doesn’t seem like it. It seems as though I mean, listen, Marianne Williamson is running and I guess Bobby Kennedy Jr. is running even though it’s basically a Republican platform, but he’s running as a Democrat, more of like a Kaos agent, as Steve Bannon refers to them. Biden will almost certainly be the nominee. Again, I hate to be grim, but like Unless he dies, Biden will almost certainly be the nominee. And then on the Republican side, unless something changes, it’s looking like it’s going to be Trump, although Trump has been a disaster for the Republican Party, costing them in 2018, costing them in 2020, costing them in 2022. They seem addicted, they can’t get away from Trump. And Trump is looking like he’s going to be the nominee. If he is indicted and arrested multiple more times, maybe it gets in the way of a campaign, but it’s looking very good for Trump unless something changes DeSantis who had energy four months ago looking a little deflated, really kind of looking like a fool. And you know, Chris Christie says I could beat Trump. No, you couldn’t. Nikki Haley’s campaign is dead on arrival. So that is the most like
likely outcome and if we have a rematch of 2020 Not only will it be endlessly interesting from a political perspective, there’s a practical question. What votes can trump gain from 2020? When you look at Arizona, a state that Biden won by a little Arizona has not moved to the right. If anything, it’s moved to the left in the last two years, Wisconsin. I think it’s moved to the left, Florida shore has moved to the right but Biden already lost Florida in 2020. So it is tough. It’s not impossible. But it’s tough to imagine a scenario where an indicted Trump gains on his 2020 numbers. That’s where my head is right now. I want to hear your thoughts.
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