Biden will crush the Democratic nomination but can he beat Trump?

President Biden is almost certainly going to be re nominated by the Democrats, despite all the various news media stories you’ve seen, because President Biden among Democrats, is much stronger than Republicans think he is. 

First of all, in most polls, he’s at about 80% approval among Democrats, he drops off among independents and of course, collapses among Republicans. But stage one in our process is to win your own party’s nomination. 

The only two presidential candidates that really serious opposition were Gerald Ford, who was about 60% approval, and Jimmy Carter, who was at about 60% approval. And the fact is, that in both cases, they still won nomination. 

So at 80% approval, it’s probably impossible for any serious candidate to make a run. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is going to try to, but he’s an outsider, he’s not really a serious candidate, I don’t think you’re going to see a governor or a senator try to take on Joe Biden. And the reason is simple. If you view him from the left, he’s a very acceptable president. Everything that drives us conservatives crazy is stuff that, in fact, the left wants. 

You want somebody who cares deeply about the transgender issue, you got Joe Biden. You say you’re gonna want somebody who has reached out to young people, both with a student loan giveaway, and by meeting with people who are on TikTok, you got Joe Biden. You want somebody who has been extraordinarily willing to spend money on the environment, you’ve got Joe Biden. You got somebody who has a loved left wing view of America, doesn’t control the border, you got Joe Biden. You want a union membership that wants more money, there’s the Biden infrastructure plan. 

So when you look around, what you discover is that the things that drive Republicans crazy aren’t things that Democrats care about. And the things Democrats care about, Joe Biden has been working at, very methodically, very systematically, and that’s why inside his own party, he’s actually very strong. He’s much stronger, I think, than Republicans think he is. Now that doesn’t mean that in the general election, that he’s a shoe in. 

I think he’s probably a shoe in to be the Democratic nominee, but I think in a general election, when you look at the economy, you look at concerns about the border, you look at crime in the big cities, there are lots of different places where Biden has a challenge, and where he might, in fact, lose the general election. 

Those are two very, very different questions. And I think that it’s interesting that the country is currently so divided, that almost everything that makes Democrats happy, are things that no Republican’s happy about. And almost everything that Republicans worry about are things that no Democrat cares about. 

And so in that sense, Biden and Trump are sort of illustrative of an era in which we’re really divided into two very different tribes with a very different set of values, very different focus and a very different way of keeping score. 

And therefore I think we’re drifting towards a very, very interesting, general election in 2024.