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How Trump could end up losing the Republican nomination
We are heading towards a historic event in American history. And this is going to be not just one or two or three, but the quadruple the simultaneous criminal prosecution of a former president of the United States, while that former president is also running to be once again, the Republican nominee, and to eventually be made president. Now I want to talk a little bit about this now that the trial dates are shaking out, and we’re sort of realizing that there’s going to be criminal trials going on as voting starts in the Republican primary. There will be criminal trials going on as the general election gets going over the summer, there will even likely be criminal trials into the next president’s term, which could be Trump, Trump could be president and still facing criminal trials. And what that will be like, I don’t even know what let’s take that one step at a time. First question.
In a very practical sense, can trump continue being a candidate, while going between four different courtrooms, it’s unlikely to be all four at the same time, by the way, but at least theoretically, are between multiple courtrooms and potentially civil trials and campaign events and voting and all of these things. In some super limited practical sense, I guess that he can do it. He has a private plane. And sure, it’s certainly something that he can do. Is there potentially going to be a reaction from the Republican electorate that this is just too crazy, and we need to pick someone else? There is zero indication right now that that’s going to be the situation. Trump’s support has only increased in the Republican primary since the criminal charges started. At one point Trump was in the low 40s. Now he’s in the high 50s, approaching 60. There is really no indication right now that Republican voters are in any way overall, dissuaded from making Trump their nominee because he has trials and criminal allegations, or whatever the case may be. Once it starts. Is it possible that that will change? Absolutely. Now we’re talking about a predictive question to which I don’t have an answer. Is it conceivable that mean, if you look at how Trump has been flipping out every day that he goes to his civil trial, and there’s no prison time that that’s even being threatened? It’s a civil trial. And then you extrapolate and you say, if life in prison for someone of Trumps age is on the table at the criminal trials? How will trump be behaving every single day? And Could he be behaving in such a way that would absolutely dissuade people from voting for him? I think that that’s a real open question. I don’t know that it gets him from 60, all the way down to 20% support. But could he lose 15 points of support because of his behavior on the criminal trials? Sure. But by the time they get going, a whole bunch of the primary is going to be over. So again, unless Trump dies, or Nikki Haley does really well in New Hampshire. And then voters say, Hey, here’s someone who may be can do it. And then she does even better and further, maybe, maybe, but really, unless Trump dies, it’s difficult to imagine anyone else being the nominee. So then we get to do the indictments and the criminal trials help or hurt Trump in a general election. And here’s where I think this is potentially problematic. We know that Magga trumpets are more emboldened by Trump’s criminal charges. Republicans in general are a little bit more divided but not divided enough that Trump is likely to lose the Primary among non Republican voters, meaning Democrats who mostly wouldn’t be voting Trump anyway. And independents, roughly half of whom didn’t vote for Trump in 2020. The criminal trials and the indictments are not helping Donald Trump. And so my position has been for a while. And by the way, when I say my position has been for a while, it’s not that having the same position is objectively better if we get new information. We revise our positions, but nothing has changed my opinion for several months, that the indictments seem to be good for Trump in the primary, but seems to be radioactively bad for him. In the general election. Democrats already weren’t voting Trump, but you may see more Democratic turnout against Trump. If indeed Republicans make Him their nominee. Independents aren’t thrilled based on polling I’ve seen with the criminal charges. So for me the most likely scenario I’m not a betting man. But if you said David, even money, right, there’s no odds just even money. Trump becomes the nominee or doesn’t. Trump’s win wins the general election or
doesn’t I think the most likely scenario is Trump becomes the Republican nominee loses the general election as his criminal trials continue we’d love to hear from you what are your thoughts
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