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Tensions continue to escalate in Ukraine over Russia’s continuing military presence near Ukraine, although we’re now hearing that further talks between the U.S. and Moscow could happen after the new year. The dialogue began a few weeks back during a meeting between President Biden and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. It’s not clear how much was accomplished in that conversation other than agreeing to have more substantive talks down the road.
The White House has to understand who they’re dealing with here. Putin hasn’t sent some 100,000 soldiers to the Ukraine borders to be easily convinced to walk them back. This action is meant to send a clear message to the US that the Russians think they can do whatever they want with Ukraine because recent history has shown them they can.
The Russian military doctrine is quite aggressive in Russian military doctrine. They have the idea of a limited nuclear war…could be an exchange of a few level, smaller nuclear weapons on the back afield with the implicit threat that it could escalate. In fact, their theme is escalate in order to de-escalate, meaning a minor escalation will make the opponent, i.e. us, back down and run away. And then the conflict will be de-escalated, but it’s kind of what happened with regard to Crimea. Well, the Russians not only took Crimea, but they’ve also taken the Northern part of the old Republic of Georgia, as well as Armenia and incorporated that into their country. Their next move is going to be on Moldova and that leads to the Balkans. So the Russians actually are the ones who have figured out that they can get away with things. And this is going to be a problem for us.
This is why President Biden needs to follow the sage wisdom of former president Teddy Roosevelt, who famously said, “walk softly but carry a big stick.”
When it comes to Putin, Teddy’s words ring as true as ever.
