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Adrienne Lawrence

Legal analyst, law professor & award-winning author

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My top 3 predictions for 2024

Jan 3

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As Americans greet the new year, the issues and debates that will shape 2024 are already beginning to solidify. Which of these myriad issues will emerge as the most important?

Straight Arrow News contributor Adrienne Lawrence lists her top predictions for the new year. From former President Donald Trump and the Supreme Court to Taylor Swift, Lawrence covers a wide range of speculation about what the year might bring.

Happy New Year! 2024 has finally arrived. And fortunately for us in politics, the new year brings a new set of issues to talk about. Now, I don’t have a crystal ball, but here are my top three predictions for some interesting matters in the news that will or will not go down this year. 

First, I don’t think the U.S. Supreme Court is going to rule in Donald Trump’s favor on the whole presidential immunity issue. Right now, the nine are supposedly considering the question of whether Trump is entitled to presidential immunity for his antics surrounding January 6 and his attempts to get reelected. Now, a ruling in his favor would completely and totally undercut Jack Smith’s prosecution of the president, as well as certain aspects of the election interference case against Trump down in Georgia. And as much as the former president likes to boast about stacking the high court with right-wing justices, I just don’t foresee him getting a ruling that is in his favor.

At bottom, the issue is really whether Trump was acting in his presidential capacity or acting as a candidate, and a candidate has no constitutional stature here that would insulate him from liability. And that’s what the lower court found, that Trump was acting as a candidate, particularly during that Stop the Steal rally.

Now, just because SCOTUS is right-wing heavy doesn’t mean that they’re pro-Trump, as they’ve ruled in several instances before against the former president when he has come to them for relief. And lastly, right-wing justice and Trump nominee Brett Kavanaugh has previously stated that the Supreme Court’s decision in U.S. versus Nixon was one of the court’s shining moments. And if you recall, in that case, the court pretty much said the president doesn’t enjoy limitless immunity. All said, I don’t think we’re gonna see Trump walking away with the SCOTUS-ushered win in any way in 2024. 

Happy New Year! 2024 has finally arrived. And fortunately for us in politics, the new year brings a new set of issues to talk about. Now, I don’t have a crystal ball, but here are my top three predictions for some interesting matters in the news that will or will not go down this year.

 

First, I don’t think the U.S. Supreme Court is going to rule in Donald Trump’s favor on the whole presidential immunity issue. Right now, the nine are supposedly considering the question of whether Trump is entitled to presidential immunity for his antics surrounding January 6 and his attempts to get re-elected. Now, a ruling in his favor would completely and totally undercut Jack Smith’s prosecution of the President, as well as certain aspects of the election interference case against Trump down in Georgia. And as much as the former president likes to boast about stacking the high court with right-wing justices, I just don’t foresee him getting a ruling that is in his favor. At bottom, the issue is really whether Trump was acting in his presidential capacity or acting as a candidate, and a candidate has no constitutional stature here that would insulate him from liability. And that’s what the lower court found, that Trump was acting as a candidate, particularly during that Stop the Steal rally.

 

Now, just because SCOTUS is right-wing heavy doesn’t mean that they’re pro-Trump, as they’ve ruled in several instances before against the former president when he has come to them for relief. And lastly, right-wing justice and Trump nominee Brett Kavanaugh has previously stated that the Supreme Court’s decision in U.S. versus Nixon was one of the court’s shining moments. And if you recall, in that case, the court pretty much said the president doesn’t enjoy limitless immunity. All said, I don’t think we’re gonna see Trump walking away with the SCOTUS-ushered win in any way in 2024.

 

And second, in 2024, I think it’s unlikely to see Joe Biden’s path to the White House to be kind of clear. Between his octogenarian status and his unapologetically unwavering support for Israel, the president simply is not looking good. According to a survey published by Pew Research in mid-December, nearly two-thirds of Americans say that they disapprove of Biden’s performance. His approval ratings among Democrats have declined 12 percentage points since the Israel-Hamas war started in early October. A lot of people simply are not a fan of this administration. And despite facing what, 91 felony counts, Biden’s alternative is posting points. In the closing weeks of 2023, Trump led Biden in seven key battleground states per a Bloomberg News survey, double digits in North Carolina. And I still don’t understand what Americans see in this fraudulent rapist grifter, but whatever they see could come between Biden having a second term. And while there’s plenty of time until November, when you’re 81 years old, time isn’t really on your side.

 

And as far as my third prediction goes, well, it’s a breakup of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Because I would pay money to never hear about that relationship again. No hate or shade, just utter exhaustion. I want to be vibrant and whimsical as I enter 2024. Don’t you?

 

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