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Newt Gingrich

Former House Speaker; Chairman of Gingrich 360

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Trump, Biden will be 2024 presidential nominees

Jan 10

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The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary are approaching on Jan. 15 and Jan. 23, respectively. These first two statewide events will help determine which Democratic and Republican nominees will end up on the 2024 presidential ballot. Several polls show early favorites, but there is still competition between the candidates.

Straight Arrow News contributor Newt Gingrich asserts that candidates like Nikki Haley have the potential to narrow the gap in popularity. But he remains confident that incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will be the final nominees.

So I think it’s very likely, [Biden’s] going to insist on running, and he has trillions of dollars in the federal budget and a great ability to guarantee that his many friends stick with him. Remember that Jerry Ford was able to beat Ronald Reagan, and then Jimmy Carter was able to beat Teddy Kennedy inside their own party. Incumbent presidents are tough. So my guess is that you’re going to have Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the Democratic ticket, and that that’ll be obvious very early, because the Democrats are actually working to keep people off the ballot. They’re blocking Robert Kennedy Jr. from from running in Democratic primaries, through them blocking this unknown Minnesota congressman from running in primaries. So we’ll see how that evolves.

On the Republican side, I believe that it’s really over. We’ll find out on you know, Jan. 15, then we go to Iowa. And on Jan. 23, when they were [sic] primary in New Hampshire — remember that Iowa is a caucus, which means you have to go out physically and spend several hours at a local fire station or a school auditorium or someplace. It’s a long involved process. I participated in both helping other candidates and as a candidate myself, back in 2012.

The ability to turn people out is very important. My guess is, as of right now, Donald Trump is going to win Iowa by a big margin over all of his opponents. Then, eight days later, they’re going to be in New Hampshire, which is a primary and has the added twist that Independents can vote in the Republican primary.

2024, of course, is a presidential year. And that has all of the excitement of a nationwide campaign for the most powerful political, governmental job in the world. This year, I think it’s all going to end very fast. I have some questions about whether or not Joe Biden in the long run will survive and be the nominee.

Because the media pressures building, even have the Washington Post, now starting to write stories about corruption in the Biden’s. And when it starts to break through to the post the New York Times, you’re gonna see more and more pressure grow. But frankly, I don’t see how they convinced Biden to step down. He’s got the White House, he has Air Force One, he has Marine One, he has Camp David, why would he voluntarily give up all that to go bicycle in Delaware the rest of his life. So I think it’s very likely, he’s going to insist on running, and he has trillions of dollars in the federal budget, and a great ability to guarantee that his many friends stick with him. Remember that Jerry Ford was able to beat Ronald Reagan, and the Jimmy Carter was able to be Teddy Kennedy, inside their own party. incumbent presidents are tough. So my guess is that you’re going to have Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the Democratic ticket, in that that’ll be obvious very early, because the Democrats are actually working to keep people off the ballot. They’re blocking Robert Kennedy Jr. from from running in Democratic primaries, through them blocking this unknown Minnesota congressman from running in primaries. So we’ll see how that evolves. On the Republican side, I believe that it’s really over, we’ll find out and, you know, January 15, then we go to Iowa. And on January 23, when they were primary in New Hampshire, remember that Iowa is a caucus, which means you have to go out physically and spend several hours at forget fire station for a school auditorium or someplace. It’s a long involved process. I participated in both helping other candidates. And as a candidate myself, back in 2012.

The ability to turn people out is very important. My guess is as of right now, the Trump is going to win Iowa by a big margin over all of his opponents. Then, eight days later, they’re going to be in New Hampshire, which is a primary and has the added twist that independents can vote in the Republican primary. I think it’s possible. And this is, frankly,

what we had in the past. Senator McCain won against George W. Bush in New Hampshire, because he drew on a lot of independence. And actually McCain did pretty well, everywhere that they had open primaries. With independence. He did badly everywhere that they had only Republicans voting. It’s possible, not likely possible that Nikki Haley might be able to win in New Hampshire, Governor Sununu, who is very popular has endorsed her.

She is certainly having a good run in the press. But Trump is still way ahead. There’s no evidence he’s not going to stay ahead. And he hasn’t really begun taking her on yet. And remember that every time somebody runs against Trump, they shrink. So she may be at the peak of her appeal, because she hasn’t gotten to be quite big enough for Trump to decide to take her down. But he will presently figure out how to do that. Even if she were to win New Hampshire, I think that’s very unlikely. She would then lose her home state pushes over 40 points behind Trump and South Carolina. And the fact is, Trump is the only Republican candidate who’s in all 50 states has organization all 50 states has the staying power, and will I think be the nominee. In fact, in mid March, we’re going to see if a Super Tuesday, Trump probably will have all the delegates he needs to become the Republican nominee. And from that point on in mid March, there’ll be able to focus on the general election and focus on drawing the contrast with Joe Biden. And I think that’s going to be the shape of 2024 politically

 

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