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David Pakman

Host of The David Pakman Show

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Opinion

With Trump polling far ahead, Republican primary already over

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David Pakman

Host of The David Pakman Show

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A new week brings fresh developments in the Republican presidential primary race. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott suspended his struggling bid. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley announced a $10 million ad campaign to better compete against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Meanwhile, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie spent a day in Israel. One consistent factor amid these changes is the enduring front-runner status of former President Donald Trump.

Straight Arrow News contributor David Pakman argues that the likelihood of anyone other than Trump securing the GOP nomination is extremely slim. Nevertheless, he contends that, regardless of the Republican nominee, the final determinant of the outcome will be voter turnout.

There are Republicans who want nothing more to do with Donald Trump. But their problem is that among the electorate, 60% still want this four-times-criminally-indicted, civilly-liable rapist to be their nominee. And if 60% want that, they’re going to get it.

The question then will become: Who is best suited for the Republicans to defeat Joe Biden? Everybody will point to some poll that makes the case they want to make. The pro-Trump people will say, “Look at the polling, look at the hypothetical polling — Trump does better than DeSantis against Biden.” The people who don’t like Trump will point to the polling and say, “Oh, no, no, no, DeSantis does better than Trump.

The reality is that we’re a year out. The polling is very much just a generality, and it is almost certainly going to be a close election, no matter who is the Republican nominee. So the message I’m giving the Left is: It doesn’t matter what you think about Biden’s chances, it doesn’t matter what you think about Trump versus DeSantis or whatever. Assume that the election comes down to your vote.

Well, I am essentially ready to say at this point that the Republican primary is over. Now how could it be over before a single vote is cast? It’s not literally over. But now with Donald Trump having skipped the third and final primary debate among Republicans before voting starts in 2024. With Donald Trump having skipped it with absolutely no negative repercussions, and with every other candidate having zero credible path towards the nomination, and Trump continuing to control 60% of the electorate in primary polling. What are we waiting for? Think through what happened on the day of the third debate.

Five candidates debated. Chris Christie did perfectly fine in the debate, but he’s not crazy. And so Republicans don’t want him he has absolutely no chance of being the nominee. Nikki Haley did well in the debate. But even in her home state of South Carolina, she’s polling only like 20% to Trump’s 45 or 50. The best she can do in her home state is still not even half of the support that Donald Trump has Ron DeSantis his campaign is dead. He seems to be wearing the strangest shoes in order to make himself taller and he can’t walk in them and he just looks crazy. And He’s sticking his tongue between his teeth during the debate. He’s creeping people out. Just a complete non factor other than behaving weirdly. The vague Ramaswamy so desperate, as his campaign crumbles, calling Vladimir Zelensky who’s Jewish and Nazi attacking debate moderator kierston Kristen Welker going after Nikki Haley’s daughter, unleashing a conspiracy theory about how Democrats are planning to replace Biden with Michelle Obama. Vivek is desperate, his campaign is dead. And then Tim Scott, much like Ron DeSantis, just not a factor. None of these people has any credible path, forget about to the nomination, but even to winning a single state. So where does that leave us? With regard to Trump? Because it is very clear that there is a split within the Republican Party. We saw this in the removal of Kevin McCarthy from the House of Representatives. There are Republicans who want nothing more to do with Donald Trump. But their problem is that among the electorate 60% still wants this four times criminally indicted, civilly liable rapist to be their nominee. And if 60% wants that, they’re going to get it. The question then will become who is best suited for the Republicans to defeat Joe Biden. Everybody will point to some poll that makes the case they want to make the pro Trump people will say look at the polling, look at the hypothetical polling. Trump does better than DeSantis against by the people who don’t like Trump will put put point to the polling and say, Oh, no, no, no. DeSantis does better than Trump. The reality is that we’re a year out. The polling is very much just a generality. And it is almost certainly going to be a close election, no matter who is the Republican nominee. So the message I’m giving the left is, it doesn’t matter what you think about Biden’s chances, it doesn’t matter what you think about Trump versus DeSantis or whatever, assume that the election comes down to your vote. Because what we really don’t want is what happened in 2016 2016, where there were some disaffected people on the left, who said, hey, you know, what, if it’s not, Bernie, for example, and I was a Bernie guy in 2016, remember, there were people who said, if it’s not Bernie, I don’t care if it’s Hillary or Trump, I’m staying home. And look at what happened.

The Supreme Court issue, which I told my audience in 2016, if it’s Hillary versus if it’s Trump, they might get one, two or three Supreme Court picks, and they could determine the path and the trajectory of the Supreme Court for a generation. And some people wrote to me and said, David, I don’t care. I’m mad that they took it from Bernie Well, it was reasonable to be mad, but to punish the country by unleashing Trump on the country to subsequently destroy the Supreme Court, making it a right wing dystopian nightmare that repealed Roe v. Wade. No, no, no, no, I’m not going to be part of that. And so the message to my audience is, don’t be a part of that. Now. Is there anything that could happen between now and whenever? That makes it so Trump is not the nominee? If Trump dies, that will prevent him from being the nominee? I’m with you on that.

If Trump, I think the timing of the trials is not such that this would happen but If Trump were convicted to prison, and it was seen as an impediment to really being president, maybe

But it seems as though there is zero real path to preventing this guy from being the nominee so all we can do let them have their primary but we all need to make sure we are registered and that we vote in November of 2024

 

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