Who is actually ahead in the presidential race? Polls give conflicting answers

Oct 11

Craig Nigrelli Reporter

By Craig Nigrelli (Reporter), Brock Koller (Senior Producer), Kaleb Gillespie (Editor)

As the race for president enters its final few weeks, it is tough to tell who is actually ahead. The race appears to be very tight, with different numbers giving different results depending on which site you visit.

In fact, Vice President Kamala Harris’ official campaign website opens with the declaration, “WE ARE FALLING BEHIND.” It shows a pie graph with former President Donald Trump ahead 50% To 49%, with no attribution. Instead, there is a statement that time is running out and there is also an appeal for donations to Harris campaign.

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On Nate Silver’s well known 538 website, he asks the question “Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?” Noting that 538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to come up with outcomes, Harris wins 55 times out of 100. Trump wins 45 times out of 100.

At RealClearPolitics, which is an aggregate of numerous polls, there has been a shift. This week it pushed Michigan into the Trump column. Last week, it moved Pennsylvania to Trump when they model without having toss-up states. As a result, RealClearPolitics has Trump currently winning the election with 302 electoral votes. Harris winds up with 236.

On Friday, Oct. 11, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) came out with a poll on the battle for seven swing states. The poll called the races in those states tied.

The same WSJ poll shows voters prefer Trump on the key issues of the economy and border security. However, Harris still has a path to victory in the Electoral College, according to that poll.

Tags: 2024 Elections, Battleground state, Donald Trump, Early voting, Election, Kamala Harris, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Swing State, Voting

[Craig Nigrelli]

AS THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT ENTERS ITS FINAL FEW WEEKS, IT’S TOUGH TO TELL WHO IS ACTUALLY AHEAD.

IN FACT, KAMALA HARRIS’S OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN WEBSITE OPENS WITH THE DECLARATION “”WE ARE FALLING BEHIND”. IT SHOWS A PIE GRAPH WITH DONALD TRUMP AHEAD 50 % TO 49 %, WITH NO ATTRIBUTION. INSTEAD, A STATEMENT THAT SAYS WE ARE IN A VIRTUAL TIE AND TIME IS RUNNING OUT . THERE IS A FINANCIAL APPEAL TO DONATE.

GOING TO NATE SILVER’S WELL-KNOWN 538 WEBSITE. HE HAS A HEADLINE THAT SAYS “ WHO IS FAVORED TO WIN THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ?” NOTING THAT 538 USES POLLING, ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC DATA TO COME UP WITH LIKELY ELECTION OUTCOMES. IN **HIS** SIMULATIONS THIS WEEK, HARRIS WINS 55 TIMES OUT 100; TRUMP WINS 45 TIMES OUT OF 100.

HEADING OVER TO REAL CLEAR POLITICS.COM WHICH IS AN AGGREGATE OF NUMEROUS POLLS. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A SHIFT. THIS WEEK, IT PUSHED MICHIGAN INTO THE TRUMP COLUMN. LAST WEEK, IT MOVED PENNSYLVANIA TO TRUMP. SO WITH NO TOSS-UPS, R-C-P HAS DONALD TRUMP WINNING THE ELECTION WITH 296 ELECTORAL VOTES, HARRIS FALLING SHORT AT 242.

AND JUST THIS MORNING, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL IS OUT WITH A POLL ON THE BATTLE FOR THE SEVEN SWING STATES. IT CALLS THE RACES IN THOSE STATES TIED.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL SAYS VOTERS PREFER DONALD TRUMP ON THE KEY ISSUES OF THE ECONOMY AND BORDER SECURITY. BUT THAT KAMALA HARRIS STILL HAS PATH TO VICTORY IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.