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On July 26, the Presidential Guard in Niger initiated a coup and detained President Mohamed Bazoum and his family. In response, an economic bloc of West African states (ECOWAS) established a deadline for the coup leaders to reinstate constitutional order or face the possible use of force.
As this deadline has now passed without the coup leaders yielding, Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan analyzes three scenarios that could unfold in the troubled nation.
Excerpted from Peter’s August 9 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) set Monday, Aug. 7, as the deadline for the Niger Coup plotters to step down and renounce power. That deadline has come and gone without any change, so what happens now?
This coup shouldn’t surprise anyone; just look at the African Sahel region, and you’ll see they are no strangers to coups. That’s been a harsh reality for the French operating in the area, and the coup in Niger only leaves a few options on the table…pack up and go home, send in some special forces to overthrow the government, or offer aid once the ECOWAS security clause kicks in (if it does at all).
This security clause dips into uncharted territory. Crossing borders has always been a big no-no in West Africa, but it might be time to rewrite some rules. And if anyone can do so, it would be the big dog of the region, Nigeria. And yes, the French would likely throw some aid into the mix.
ECOWAS will meet this Thursday to debate and discuss the coup in Niger. Their decisions and actions over the next few weeks will give us a glimpse of the next few decades in West Africa.
