Everyone, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Golden Horn just above Littleton, Colorado. The news over the weekend, is that Tony Blinken, the US Secretary of State is going to try to deceive you can try to reset relations. He’s getting a lot of criticism from all sides by folks on the left are saying that, you know, this is a country that is a trade foe. So maybe we should be using this as an opportunity to tighten the screws on the right there. Like why should it be Blinken that is going to Beijing when it’s things that have happened in Beijing that have wrecked the relationship. I’m not going to comment too much on that one way or the other. But there are three things I do want to bring up. First of all, China under Chairman Zhi Jing Ping has descended into a full cult of personality and that is very much in play here.
Let me put in a context that more Americans would identify with. The last, well, a pseudo cult of personality had was under Barack Obama. And according to the story I’ve been given from folks in Washington, and his first meeting with the Joint Chiefs, you know, military, he walked into the room said, I’m smarter than all of you, I could do your jobs better than you. Now, let’s assume for the moment that that is true. The President of the United States could not actually do the job of the President and the job of all the chain chiefs at the same time, and Chairman G has now prosecuted or purged everyone within the People’s Republic, who’s capable of conscious thought including in his inner circle, he has no confidence, he has no advisors that matter. It’s just him.
And in that sort of circumstance, we are seeing catastrophic decision making across the length and the breadth of the Chinese system, because nobody in the bureaucracy wants to act unless they’re given direct orders that are very clearly from Ji, personally. Or you get zealots who think they’re interpreting the propaganda on his behalf, and doing really crazy shit. In this sort of environment, having normal diplomatic relations is impossible, because there’s no cadre of people to take the broad stroke guidance that the premier in this case provides and translating that into day to day actions. So a great example is the Chinese had an opportunity a few weeks ago, a couple weeks ago, one week ago recently to meet with the US Secretary of Defense and worked out some Confidence Building Measures to avoid catastrophic confrontations and mistakes. But orders couldn’t come down from Ji on that topic, because he was busy dealing with everything else.
And so Blinken is likely to experience the same thing that there is no diplomatic position in the People’s Republic of China right now. And he’s going to be talking with people who don’t have anything to say, it’s going to feel like a stone wall. But that’s not what it is. It’s a lack of direction. And when countries hit places like this, it’s just a question of what gets dropped. So we know because of China’s mismanagement, again, because of lack of direction of things like African swine fever, they’re facing a pork crisis. We know because of their siding with Russia, they’re more exposed in terms of energy trade than they’ve ever been before. And they’re seeing the Europeans and the Americans start to melon scoop out choice chunks of the economy. And there’s nothing they can do about it, because there is no direction from the top. And even if Ji thinks of himself, like Obama, the smartest person in every room, doesn’t matter. Can’t do it all himself.
Okay, that’s number one. Number two, managing decline. One of the biggest criticisms that I think is accurate of Bill Clinton’s reign as president, is that he kind of ignored Russia after the Soviet Union fell. I mean, here we have one of the second probably the second greatest military power in human history, which at the time had 10s, of 1000s of nuclear warheads. And for the first three years of his administration, it just didn’t even register on the radar. And I would say in the second term, nothing registered on his radar. We were lucky with the former Soviet world, we were lucky with the the low amount of Imperial debris whether it was the Chechen war, or the Yugoslav Wars, or things when the Balkans with the Serbs or Afghanistan, we were lucky that none of this spun out of control. We were lucky, there were no loose nukes. Hopefully, we don’t count on luck to manage the Chinese decline.
We have a much larger country in terms of population and economics, maybe the reach isn’t as big. But we should probably be burning a little bit of oil on thinking about what a post China China looks like, and preparing for that world. And in that context, I think Blinken is doing the right thing going not that I think anything’s gonna come as a visit. Of course not. But a dying superpower that you ignore is one that you have no options for managing. And the first step of having those options is to engage. And so even if it’s nothing more than finding out that the Chinese can’t function, this trip is worth that trip.
Which brings us to the third thing, intelligence gathering. Chairman Ji is not like Trump or Putin. So Trump and Putin both had a tight circle. Have people around them and a handful of trusted confidants. Now the Russians were able to take advantage of this for Donald Trump because Donald Trump kept using his presidential phone to call these friends on their civilian lines. And so the Russians were able to hack and tap into Trump’s circle of friends because they couldn’t tap the White House themselves, gave them a pretty good look into all things White House for four years. And in the case of Putin, he’s got a half a dozen people his inner circle in the United States is thoroughly penetrated, their email, their faxes, their meetings, their calls, everything.
Ji doesn’t have that vulnerability. GE is a one man show now there is no one who’s in his inner circle. There’s no one whose phone you can tap. He doesn’t have conversations with anyone, you can’t even tap his phone. And that means our only decent window into what’s going on in China at the top is to engage directly as high up the pyramid as you possibly can. Which means we shouldn’t think of Blinken’s trip primarily as a diplomatic visit. We should think of it as intelligence gathering in one of the very few ways that it even matters in China anymore. Okay, that’s it for me, you guys. Take care
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitical Strategist
Commentary
Our commentary partners will help you reach your own conclusions on complex topics.
Is the US looking for a war?
8 hrs ago
Peter Zeihan
How future generations could shift US support for Israel
Yesterday
Peter Zeihan
Why election of European Commission president is so important
Wednesday
Peter Zeihan
‘Both completely corrupt’: What Americans think of Biden, Trump
Tuesday
Dr. Frank Luntz
Blinken trip to China is about intelligence gathering, not diplomacy
Peter Zeihan
Geopolitical Strategist
By Straight Arrow News
The visit to China by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is widely viewed as an attempt to repair the deteriorating relationship between the world’s top economic leaders. Blinken himself said “it’s the responsibility of both countries” to figure out how both nations can work together.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan says the trip to Beijing should be viewed as being more about intelligence gathering on a declining superpower, than about diplomacy.
Excerpted from Peter’s June 19 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is heading to China to attempt to reset relations. He’s getting flack from both sides, and I won’t talk about that, but I do want to bring up three things …
China has descended into a cult of personality thanks to Xi Jinping. He’s rid the government of anyone capable of conscious thought, so whatever he says = law. In a situation like this (where one man is trying to do EVERYTHING), it’s impossible to have meaningful diplomatic relations.
We have a dying superpower on our hands, and if America’s mitigation plan is to ignore them … there will be no options to manage the fallout. Blinken’s visit, at the very least, is a step towards figuring out what those options might be.
At its core, Blinken’s visit is about intelligence gathering. When you have a leader like Xi (who doesn’t talk to or trust anyone), it’s incredibly difficult to get information. So the only decent way to get info is through a trip like this.
Everyone, Peter Zeihan here coming to you from Golden Horn just above Littleton, Colorado. The news over the weekend, is that Tony Blinken, the US Secretary of State is going to try to deceive you can try to reset relations. He’s getting a lot of criticism from all sides by folks on the left are saying that, you know, this is a country that is a trade foe. So maybe we should be using this as an opportunity to tighten the screws on the right there. Like why should it be Blinken that is going to Beijing when it’s things that have happened in Beijing that have wrecked the relationship. I’m not going to comment too much on that one way or the other. But there are three things I do want to bring up. First of all, China under Chairman Zhi Jing Ping has descended into a full cult of personality and that is very much in play here.
Let me put in a context that more Americans would identify with. The last, well, a pseudo cult of personality had was under Barack Obama. And according to the story I’ve been given from folks in Washington, and his first meeting with the Joint Chiefs, you know, military, he walked into the room said, I’m smarter than all of you, I could do your jobs better than you. Now, let’s assume for the moment that that is true. The President of the United States could not actually do the job of the President and the job of all the chain chiefs at the same time, and Chairman G has now prosecuted or purged everyone within the People’s Republic, who’s capable of conscious thought including in his inner circle, he has no confidence, he has no advisors that matter. It’s just him.
And in that sort of circumstance, we are seeing catastrophic decision making across the length and the breadth of the Chinese system, because nobody in the bureaucracy wants to act unless they’re given direct orders that are very clearly from Ji, personally. Or you get zealots who think they’re interpreting the propaganda on his behalf, and doing really crazy shit. In this sort of environment, having normal diplomatic relations is impossible, because there’s no cadre of people to take the broad stroke guidance that the premier in this case provides and translating that into day to day actions. So a great example is the Chinese had an opportunity a few weeks ago, a couple weeks ago, one week ago recently to meet with the US Secretary of Defense and worked out some Confidence Building Measures to avoid catastrophic confrontations and mistakes. But orders couldn’t come down from Ji on that topic, because he was busy dealing with everything else.
And so Blinken is likely to experience the same thing that there is no diplomatic position in the People’s Republic of China right now. And he’s going to be talking with people who don’t have anything to say, it’s going to feel like a stone wall. But that’s not what it is. It’s a lack of direction. And when countries hit places like this, it’s just a question of what gets dropped. So we know because of China’s mismanagement, again, because of lack of direction of things like African swine fever, they’re facing a pork crisis. We know because of their siding with Russia, they’re more exposed in terms of energy trade than they’ve ever been before. And they’re seeing the Europeans and the Americans start to melon scoop out choice chunks of the economy. And there’s nothing they can do about it, because there is no direction from the top. And even if Ji thinks of himself, like Obama, the smartest person in every room, doesn’t matter. Can’t do it all himself.
Okay, that’s number one. Number two, managing decline. One of the biggest criticisms that I think is accurate of Bill Clinton’s reign as president, is that he kind of ignored Russia after the Soviet Union fell. I mean, here we have one of the second probably the second greatest military power in human history, which at the time had 10s, of 1000s of nuclear warheads. And for the first three years of his administration, it just didn’t even register on the radar. And I would say in the second term, nothing registered on his radar. We were lucky with the former Soviet world, we were lucky with the the low amount of Imperial debris whether it was the Chechen war, or the Yugoslav Wars, or things when the Balkans with the Serbs or Afghanistan, we were lucky that none of this spun out of control. We were lucky, there were no loose nukes. Hopefully, we don’t count on luck to manage the Chinese decline.
We have a much larger country in terms of population and economics, maybe the reach isn’t as big. But we should probably be burning a little bit of oil on thinking about what a post China China looks like, and preparing for that world. And in that context, I think Blinken is doing the right thing going not that I think anything’s gonna come as a visit. Of course not. But a dying superpower that you ignore is one that you have no options for managing. And the first step of having those options is to engage. And so even if it’s nothing more than finding out that the Chinese can’t function, this trip is worth that trip.
Which brings us to the third thing, intelligence gathering. Chairman Ji is not like Trump or Putin. So Trump and Putin both had a tight circle. Have people around them and a handful of trusted confidants. Now the Russians were able to take advantage of this for Donald Trump because Donald Trump kept using his presidential phone to call these friends on their civilian lines. And so the Russians were able to hack and tap into Trump’s circle of friends because they couldn’t tap the White House themselves, gave them a pretty good look into all things White House for four years. And in the case of Putin, he’s got a half a dozen people his inner circle in the United States is thoroughly penetrated, their email, their faxes, their meetings, their calls, everything.
Ji doesn’t have that vulnerability. GE is a one man show now there is no one who’s in his inner circle. There’s no one whose phone you can tap. He doesn’t have conversations with anyone, you can’t even tap his phone. And that means our only decent window into what’s going on in China at the top is to engage directly as high up the pyramid as you possibly can. Which means we shouldn’t think of Blinken’s trip primarily as a diplomatic visit. We should think of it as intelligence gathering in one of the very few ways that it even matters in China anymore. Okay, that’s it for me, you guys. Take care
Is the US looking for a war?
With conflicts, skirmishes and tensions simmering around the globe, and with the United States playing supporting roles in several of them, the question of whether the country getting involved directly is legitimate. The war in Ukraine, for example, has forced several European countries to reintroduce mandatory military service to confront the growing threat from Moscow.…
8 hrs ago
How future generations could shift US support for Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint meeting of Congress on July 24, calling for increased bipartisan support for Israel amid its 10-month war with Hamas. He praised President Biden’s “half century of friendship to Israel” and referred to Hamas as “sheer evil.” In the video above, Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan analyzes…
Yesterday
Why election of European Commission president is so important
Ursula von der Leyen has been reelected to another five-year term as president of the European Commission after a vote by EU lawmakers. Von der Leyen will now preside over a coalition that shifted to the right after recent European elections, where ultra-conservative parties won a record number of seats. In July, von der Leyen…
Wednesday
Protests in Bangladesh signal more trouble ahead
Public protests in Bangladesh against government hiring practices — and against the government’s military response to those protests — have left at least 174 dead and 2,500 jailed. Bangladesh’s people face an acute jobs and unemployment crisis, so public disagreements over hiring practices carry significant weight. The regime recently enforced a nationwide internet blackout as…
Tuesday
In US election, early polling doesn’t tell us anything yet
From President Joe Biden’s declining health to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, there’s been a series of major political developments in the United States that might impact the results of the November election. These developments have led to renewed confusion, concern and debate regarding which candidate might win, and in the Democrats’ case, which…
Jul 19
Underreported stories from each side
Group accuses Pa. teachers union of illegally using money to back Shapiro’s 2022 campaign
8 sources | 0% from the left
Getty Images
Some House Republicans slam Vance as Trump’s VP pick: ‘The worst choice’
8 sources | 0% from the right
Reuters
Latest Stories
Congress still trying to figure out how to reduce wasteful military spending
Watch 2:29
3 hrs ago
US Navy, Air Force making waves with new weapons at RIMPAC
Watch 6:03
3 hrs ago
Israeli PM Netanyahu meets with Trump at Mar-a-Lago
Watch 2:54
3 hrs ago
Growing US nuclear power resurgence reaches the nation’s heartland
Watch 1:19
3 hrs ago
Beer from the sun, other solar thermal projects get government funding
Watch 2:04
3 hrs ago
Popular Opinions
In addition to the facts, we believe it’s vital to hear perspectives from all sides of the political spectrum.
Trump has an excellent opportunity with Black voters
8 hrs ago
Star Parker
Don’t fall for GOP’s cheap racist attacks on Kamala Harris
9 hrs ago
Dr. Rashad Richey
Americans must reject Trump to defend our democracy
Yesterday
Jordan Reid
Why all the changes in European parliamentary governments?
Wednesday
Newt Gingrich