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The Ukraine War has upended the global food supply chain, as Russia and Ukraine combine to produce roughly one-third of the world’s wheat and barley. An agreement last year provided for Ukraine to move grain through the Black Sea. However, there are new concerns now that five European Union nations have banned Ukrainian agricultural exports.
Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan says that while the ban is about protecting local farmers in those other countries, it’s a potentially devastating blow for Ukraine.
Excerpted from Peter’s June 16 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:
Today’s video comes to you from the Okanagan region of BC — famous for its deep lakes, good wine, and (typically) blue skies.
We’re talking about agriculture today, specifically the ban that five EU countries just placed on Ukrainian exports. With Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Romania dropping this hammer, I would expect Ukraine exports to fall by up to 90%.
Most Ukrainian exports used to go out by sea; now that Russia is cutting these lines off, rail is the next best option. However, these new bans will force exports to travel farther to Western Europe, requiring transfer to new rail cars due to incompatible gauges and adding a few extra “0s” to the bill along the way.
In addition to the cuts in exports, many of the processing capabilities that enabled Ukraine to move up the value-add chain have also been taken offline. With neighboring countries prioritizing local farmers, Ukraine is s*** out of luck.
There isn’t a quick fix for any of this either … unless the Ukrainian counter-offensive can capture all of the Crimean Peninsula … but that’s not going to happen anytime soon. While this is a devastating blow for Ukraine, its effects will be felt far and wide, with Egypt at the top of that list.
