How Russia-Ukraine war will impact Transnistria and Moldova


Transnistria is an autonomous region situated within Moldova. It gained independence as a separate republic from Moldova following the collapse of the Soviet Union and has since oscillated between pro-European and pro-Russian governments. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Transnistria’s future is up for grabs.

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan delves into the potential consequences of the war in Ukraine on both Transnistria and the Moldovan government’s future.

Excerpted from Peter’s Oct. 6 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

If you’re keen on finding a place that has been put through the rinse cycle by the Russians more than a few times, look no further than Moldova. Today, we’ll explore the Russian de facto state in the eastern sliver of Moldova, known as Transnistria.

This region operates as a smuggling hub and carries heavy influence in the broader political landscape of Moldova. But as the war in Ukraine rages on, Moldovians are setting their sights on a future that removes Russia as their puppet master.

If Ukraine can hold out, the Russians will lose air and land access to Transnistria – meaning Russian support for this region would become impossible. Anticipating this shift, Moldova is aligning itself with Europe and entertaining a reunification with Romania.

With EU involvement on the line, the future of Moldova (and that tiny sliver in the east) could be resting on the decisions and results of the Ukraine War.